After a stellar run at Memphis Mike Norvell has had a rollercoaster run in Tallahassee as the Florida State Seminoles head football coach. Norvell finished his four year stint at Memphis with a 38-15 record.

At FSU Norvell started off slow winning only eight games in two years. Then the ‘Noles had an awakening and won 23 games from 2022-2023. And now that reality has come crashing back down with seven wins the past two seasons.

FSU will have 17 transfers in the 2-deep once again in 2026. It’s become a double-edged sword where he only way Norvell can keep his job (buyout be damned) after this year is to inject talent into the roster but he’s got a bad culture in the field house up at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Now let’s put the ‘Noles through The Goal, our 2026 Summer Scheming analysis system.

Acquisition: The ’Noles high school recruiting hasn’t been as ‘bad’ s advertised. FSU is 16th over the past three years in prep signings and 14th when it comes to the transfer portal for an average of 15th overall.

Development: Now this is the crazy part. Over the past couple of years the ‘Noles have only produced eight NFL players. Only eight have stuck it out from the 2025 and 2026 NFL Draft classes. Remember all of those drafts loaded with FSU talent like Jameis Winston and Jared Verse? Right now it’s Deuce Robinson and who else?

Deployment: This preseason Bill Connelly’s SP+ has FSU 35th in overall SP+. The Seminole offense is 45th, the defense 30th and the kicking game is 94th. So where as Mike Norvell has the 15th best players he’s producing the 35th best team. He’s revamped his coordinators once again sending Gus Malzahn off to the glue factory and promoting Tim Harris Jr to OC.

The bottleneck to success at FSU is the culture within the program. The Seminoles went hellbent on the transfer portal to improve from 5-7 to 10-3 and dipped their toe in again to move to 13-1. They were Jordan Travis’ leg away from competing for a national championship. But injuries do happen and losing your starting QB is a devastating one.

Mike Norvell has taken the Manny Diaz approach to the transfer portal and it’s killed any semblance of a culture that could possibly have been built in the FSU locker room AND he’s losing games.

The FSU strength of schedule is 45th of 138 in FBS per CFB News. Florida State faces SMU before an off week. Then they head to Tuscaloosa to play the Alabama Crimson Tide. After a cupcake, FSU hosts UVA before consecutive road trips to Louisville and Miami. The ‘Noles also face Clemson, Pitt and Florida over the back half of the schedule.

The inventory space includes returning production per Bill Connelly, the On3 top-100 list and the Athlon preseason All-Conference Team honorees. The ’Noles returning production is 48th in FBS at 57% production. FSU has two players on the On3 top-100 list in WR Deuce Robinson (74th) and DL Mandrell Desir (97th). The ‘Noles have one player on the Athlon All-ACC Team and that’s Robinson.

FSU hit the transfer portal for four of their five potential starting OL in ‘26. They also brought in QB Ashton Daniels (Auburn) and RB Quintrevion Wisner (Texas). Daniels is another FSU QB with a penchant for throwing interceptions.

Robinson averaged 19.3 yards per catch with six scores in 2025. Wisner adds over four yards per carry and three TD’s from his run at Texas. On defense M. Desir returns with 7.5 TFL’s and 6.5 sacks from a year ago.

Southern Miss transfer LB Chris Jones logged 9.5 TFL’s and 3.5 sacks a year ago. Another transfer, this one DB Nehemiah Chandler, picked up 13 PBU’s last season with two INT’s.

Mike Norvell is committing highway robbery with the past two seasons performances. After the 13-1 season and the Alabama opening with Nick Saban’s retirement, Norvell landed himself a nice raise up to $10.3M a season. The issue is they’ve only won six games per season under Norvell which adds up to $1.7M per win. That’s second to only Bill Belichick in the grand theft coaching category.

There is no chance the goal at FSU is anything short of eight wins. What a sad cry from only three seasons ago when the ‘Noles were potentially a national championship program. That’s the crux of the transfer portal, live by the transfer / die by the transfer.

Highly successful clubs have started to be extremely careful with who comes in and out of their program, think: Ohio State, Notre Dame, Indiana and even lately- Miami. The vetting process is pivotal for not bottlenecking your success by bringing in locker room cancers.

Season Prediction: I can see this winding up anywhere from 5-7 to 7-5. They’ve got the 2nd most players on the On3 top-11 than anyone else on Miami’s schedule (ND has five). They also have the 15th best grouping of talent in the country. And yet I just can’t see Daniels, four new OL, a new RB, and another dozen guys on defense gelling together under Mike Norvell and into some phoenix that rises from the ashes of the ACC cellar.