Florida
Rafael strengthens to Category 2 hurricane, Florida Keys under tropical storm warning
TAMPA, Fla. – Hurricane Rafael has strengthened into a Category 2 storm as it heads toward Cuba, where landfall is expected Wednesday before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
As of 7 a.m. Wednesday, Rafael was located at 21.0N and 81.6W with maximum sustained winds of 100 miles an hour, moving northwest at 14 miles an hour.
According to the National Hurricane Center, Rafael will pass through western Cuba on Wednesday as a Category 2 storm.
The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Rafael will make landfall in Cuba on Wednesday before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
The NHC says the storm will also bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, through early Thursday.
Where will Rafael go once it reaches the Gulf?
Models have shifted west, indicating that Rafael will turn far away from Florida’s Gulf coast in the coming days.
A tropical storm warning is in effect, however, for the Florida Keys, where some storm impacts are expected Wednesday and early Thursday.
Models are divided on whether Rafael will head north toward the U.S. Gulf coast, or turn south toward Mexico.
As the storm moves through the Gulf, it’s expected to weaken because of cooler water temperatures and increased wind shear.
FOX 13 Meteorologist Jim Weber says it remains to be seen whether Rafael will make landfall in the U.S., or turn south toward Mexico.
“We may see some big adjustments to the forecast track as we go through the day,” Weber said.
Weber says the Tampa Bay area will see cloudy skies and scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday, with most of Florida’s storm impacts staying to the south.
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Florida
Area to watch for tropical development in Gulf to bring downpours to drought-stricken Florida | Latest Weather Clips | FOX Weather
Area to watch for tropical development in Gulf to bring downpours to drought-stricken Florida
While this area to watch for tropical development may not actually become tropical, it will definitely bring rain to Florida, which desperately needs it. The system is likely to bring the most significant rain to the Florida panhandle down south to Tampa, but the entire state can expect some moisture through midweek next week.
Gulf system to bring downpours to Florida
FOX 13 Meteorologist Jim Weber is continuing to watch an area in the Gulf that is expected to bring much-needed rain to Florida this weekend. He said the system will likely drift to the north and northwest and will linger before heading to the northeast. He said to get a tropical depression, or a tropical storm there needs to be winds and a closed low and he is not seeing that in the models yet. Weber is also tracking a system off the coast of Africa that has a 10% chance of developing over the next week. He says it will likely enter a hostile environment and dissipate.
TAMPA, Fla. – Forecasters are tracking a broad disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico off the Florida coast that could bring much-needed rain to parched communities this weekend.
Gulf tropical development potential
What we know:
Models continue to indicate there is a potential for an area of low pressure to form over the northeast Gulf off the west coast of Florida over the weekend.
The National Hurricane Center says an area in the Gulf has a 30% chance of tropical development over the next seven days.
Models a shifting away from the forecast of the system moving over the state and off the coast of the Carolinas. Models are now indicating a more likely scenario that it lingers in the Gulf over the weekend and may drift more to the northwest near the Florida Panhandle or Louisiana coast. Early next week conditions look like they will become less conducive and may prohibit much development. Regardless of whether it organizes, the system will bring tropical downpours and increased moisture across Florida and parts of the Southeast.
FOX 13 Meteorologist Jim Weber states we are close to 7.50″ below average on our rainfall in Tampa for the year. A weak area of low pressure or tropical system can be beneficial in helping to make up for the rainfall deficit we have been experiencing. Drought conditions continue over much of the state of Florida. If this system ends up drifting more westward, it would limit the total amount of rainfall and the highest totals would be along the immediate west coast.
Atlantic tropical development potential
A tropical wave southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands remains disorganized.
It is moving west-northwest and, according to the NHC, there is a chance for slow development over the next day or two. By the weekend it is expected to move into less conducive conditions and Saharan dust will begin to affect this wave, limiting its moisture. The time for this system to develop is very limited and will not develop after the weekend.
The NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing.
Weather factors and storm names
What we don’t know:
Officials cannot yet confirm if the disturbance will overcome environmental hurdles like land interaction, wind shear and dry air. Computer models remain uncertain on how much this system will develop over the waters of the Gulf. If it stays over the warm waters of the Gulf longer, it may give it additional time to organize. Interactions with land and wind shear will likely pose obstacles in further development.
To become a tropical system, it must develop a defined circulation with organized thunderstorms. If it reaches maximum sustained winds of 39 mph, it will become a tropical storm and be named Bertha.
The Source: The information in this story was gathered by FOX 13Meteorologist Jim Weber, the National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlooks, as well as forecast computer models.
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