Our way-too-early Florida college football rankings for 2025

We know, we know. College football’s national title game ended only a few hours ago. The celebration in Columbus, Ohio, is just now cranking up. Heck, Kirk Herbstreit’s pooch is still prancing somewhere in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

So why are we already making projections for the 2025 season? Because it’s a tradition like no other. Way-too-early forecasts have become embedded in the sport’s fabric, much like portal season, the Pop-Tarts Bowl and profanities by Nick Saban on live TV.

Who cares if they should be taken with a grain of salt? Our guess is, they’ll still make more than a few fans feel salty. All part of the fun.

Here then, is our way-too-early 2025 ranking of Florida’s seven Football Bowl Subdivision teams.

7. Florida International

2024 record: 4-8

3 key returners: DB Brian Blades II (six pass breakups), QB Keyone Jenkins (2,557 passing yards, 22 TDs), RB Kejon Owens (team-best 392 rushing yards, five TDs)

3 key departures: LB Travion Barnes (Baylor), S JoJo Evans (Louisville), WR Eric Rivers (Georgia Tech)

Impact newcomer: RB Ajay Allen (Miami)

Outlook: New Panthers coach Willie Simmons did arguably his best recruiting job of the winter by convincing both Jenkins and Owens to withdraw their names from the portal and remain at FIU. On the flip side, Simmons lost a procession of talented defensive players to the portal and must do some significant replenishing. Simmons, a Tallahassee native who posted four consecutive seasons of at least nine wins at Florida A&M, has the coaching and recruiting chops to succeed down south, but this will take time.

6. Florida Atlantic

2024 record: 3-9

3 key returners: DB Wendel Philord (42 tackles, four pass breakups), WR Jabari Smith (17 receptions), DB Jayden Williams (two interceptions)

3 key departures: RB C.J. Campbell (Rutgers), QB Cam Fancher (UCF), S CJ Heard (Vanderbilt)

Impact newcomer: QB Caden Veltkamp (Western Kentucky)

Outlook: New Owls coach Zach Kittley practically had to pilfer the transfer portal to replenish FAU’s decimated roster, but he pulled off a bonanza by signing Veltkamp, a 3,000-yard passer at Western Kentucky last season. As a bonus, he also landed one of Veltkamp’s top targets last year, Hilltoppers slot receiver Easton Messer (55 catches, 793 yards). Widely regarded as one of college football’s brightest young offensive minds, Kittley, 33, has the energy and ingenuity to turn around FAU. But his overhauled roster will need time to jell.

5. UCF

2024 record: 4-8

3 key returners: Edge Nyjalik Kelly (team-high 5.5 sacks), RT Paul Rubelt (lone returning OL starter) DT John Walker (injured in 2024)

3 key departures: LB Xe’Ree Alexander (Washington), DL Lee Hunter (Texas Tech), RG Marcellus Marshall (Minnesota)

Impact newcomer: QB Tayven Jackson (Indiana)

Outlook: Count us among those who remain convinced Scott Frost didn’t forget how to coach. Also count us among those who believe he never really was crazy about leaving UCF for his alma mater (Nebraska), where he went 16-31 in four-plus seasons. Frost has some significant rebuilding ahead of him in his second stint in Orlando, and he has been forced to tap heavily into the transfer portal (more than two-dozen transfers) since his return in early December. But don’t be shocked if the Knights make some rumblings in the Big 12 in 2025. And if his second season (2026) remotely resembles the Year 2 of his initial go-round at UCF (see Colley Matrix), watch out.

4. USF

2024 record: 7-6 (topped San Jose State, 41-39, in Hawaii Bowl)

3 key returners: QB Byrum Brown (12 school records), WR Keshaun Singleton (428 receiving yards, three TDs), S Tavin Ward (team-high three interceptions)

3 key departures: S Tawfiq Byard (Colorado), RB Kelley Joiner (NFL draft), LB Jamie Pettway (NFL draft)

Impact newcomer: RB Cartevious Norton (Charlotte)

Outlook: Presuming Brown is healthy and still here, the Bulls should eclipse the seven-win plateau in Year 3 of the Alex Golesh era. The backfield must be replenished, but there’s proven talent on the perimeter and up front. The big question involves the defense and whether USF can develop more consistency on that side. After two .500 regular seasons, Bulls fans want to see Golesh’s “process” produce titles, or at least title-game berths.

3. FSU

2024 record: 2-10

3 key returners: S Shyheim Brown (team-high 70 tackles), DT Darrell Jackson (32 tackles, 3.5 sacks), S KJ Kirkland (46 tackles, two pass breakups)

3 key departures: QB Luke Kromenhoek (Mississippi State), edge Patrick Payton (LSU), RB Lawrance Toafili (NFL draft)

Impact newcomer: QB Thomas Castellanos (Boston College)

Outlook: As promised, coach Mike Norvell has orchestrated a brisk overhaul in the wake of a disastrous autumn, bringing in two new coordinators (Gus Malzahn, Tony White) and an infusion of veterans from the transfer portal. The returners and replenishments on defense, along with White’s 3-3-5 scheme, should foster optimism, but the big question is whether the Seminoles will regain an offensive pulse. Castellanos, a 5-foot-9 dual threat, played briefly for Malzahn at UCF and possesses the skill set that meshes with Malzahn’s no-huddle scheme.

2. Miami

2024 record: 10-3 (lost to Iowa State, 42-41, in Pop-Tarts Bowl)

3 key returners: DT Rueben Bain (3.5 sacks), RB Mark Fletcher (545 rushing yards, eight TDs), LB Francisco Mauigoa (team-high 88 tackles)

3 key departures: DL Simeone Barrow (NFL draft), WR Xavier Restrepo (NFL draft), QB Cam Ward (NFL draft)

Impact newcomer: QB Carson Beck (Georgia)

Outlook: The Hurricanes got a coup of sorts by luring Beck — 24-3 as a starter at Georgia — from the portal. Beck, who likely will miss spring practice while recovering from elbow surgery, doesn’t have Ward’s hair-trigger release, but he possesses far more big-game experience than Ward had upon his arrival to Coral Gables. He’ll also be complemented by what projects as a solid offensive line and sturdy run game (see Fletcher, Jordan Lyle). The prevailing question is how the beleaguered defense will progress under new coordinator Corey Hetherman.

1. Florida

2024 record: 8-5 (topped Tulane, 33-8, in Gasparilla Bowl)

3 key returners: QB DJ Lagway (6-1 as starter), edge Tyreak Sapp (team-high seven sacks), C Jake Slaughter (first-team All-American)

3 key departures: WR Chimere Deke (NFL draft), LB Shemar James (NFL draft), edge Jack Pyburn (LSU)

Impact newcomer: WR Dallas Wilson (Tampa Bay Tech)

Outlook: Few SEC teams ended 2024 with more momentum than the Gators, whose season-ending four-game win streak included home upsets of ranked foes LSU and Ole Miss. Moreover, coach Billy Napier replenished his roster with a top-11 prep signing class in December. This is Lagway’s team now, and he’ll be flanked by talent both proven (Slaughter) and promising (Wilson). The most formidable challenge: a schedule every bit as ruthless as last year’s.

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