Area to watch for tropical development in Gulf to bring downpours to drought-stricken Florida

While this area to watch for tropical development may not actually become tropical, it will definitely bring rain to Florida, which desperately needs it. The system is likely to bring the most significant rain to the Florida panhandle down south to Tampa, but the entire state can expect some moisture through midweek next week. 

Gulf system to bring downpours to Florida

FOX 13 Meteorologist Jim Weber is continuing to watch an area in the Gulf that is expected to bring much-needed rain to Florida this weekend. He said the system will likely drift to the north and northwest and will linger before heading to the northeast. He said to get a tropical depression, or a tropical storm there needs to be winds and a closed low and he is not seeing that in the models yet. Weber is also tracking a system off the coast of Africa that has a 10% chance of developing over the next week. He says it will likely enter a hostile environment and dissipate. 

TAMPA, Fla. – Forecasters are tracking a broad disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico off the Florida coast that could bring much-needed rain to parched communities this weekend.

Gulf tropical development potential

What we know:

Models continue to indicate there is a potential for an area of low pressure to form over the northeast Gulf off the west coast of Florida over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center says an area in the Gulf has a 30% chance of tropical development over the next seven days.

Models a shifting away from the forecast of the system moving over the state and off the coast of the Carolinas.  Models are now indicating a more likely scenario that it lingers in the Gulf over the weekend and may drift more to the northwest near the Florida Panhandle or Louisiana coast. Early next week conditions look like they will become less conducive and may prohibit much development. Regardless of whether it organizes, the system will bring tropical downpours and increased moisture across Florida and parts of the Southeast. 

FOX 13 Meteorologist Jim Weber states we are close to 7.50″ below average on our rainfall in Tampa for the year. A weak area of low pressure or tropical system can be beneficial in helping to make up for the rainfall deficit we have been experiencing.  Drought conditions continue over much of the state of Florida. If this system ends up drifting more westward, it would limit the total amount of rainfall and the highest totals would be along the immediate west coast.

Atlantic tropical development potential

A tropical wave southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands remains disorganized.

It is moving west-northwest and, according to the NHC, there is a chance for slow development over the next day or two.  By the weekend it is expected to move into less conducive conditions and Saharan dust will begin to affect this wave, limiting its moisture. The time for this system to develop is very limited and will not develop after the weekend.

The NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing. 

Weather factors and storm names

What we don’t know:

Officials cannot yet confirm if the disturbance will overcome environmental hurdles like land interaction, wind shear and dry air. Computer models remain uncertain on how much this system will develop over the waters of the Gulf.  If it stays over the warm waters of the Gulf longer, it may give it additional time to organize. Interactions with land and wind shear will likely pose obstacles in further development.

To become a tropical system, it must develop a defined circulation with organized thunderstorms. If it reaches maximum sustained winds of 39 mph, it will become a tropical storm and be named Bertha. 

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