Hurricane center increases odds that tropical system will develop this week to 60%

The National Hurricane Center increased the chances of a tropical system developing in an area from Hispaniola through the Florida Peninsula to 60% over the next seven days.

While the tropical wave the center is watching is several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands and is being held back by dry Saharan air, forecasters believe it will break free of that restriction as it moves west toward the Caribbean Sea where exceptionally warm waters beckon.

An early Tuesday forecast said a tropical depression could form later this week while the system is near the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas.

“Interest in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system,” NHC senior hurricane specialist Eric Blake in his 2 a.m. Tuesday outlook.

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The next name on the 2024 hurricane list is Debby, followed by Ernesto and Francine.

National Weather Service meteorologists in Miami are also watching the tropical wave over the central Atlantic Ocean, but said there is a big gap between weather models as far as what its future holds. More “disorganized” solutions favor a western track into the Gulf of Mexico. Models that show the system consolidating and becoming better organized favor it going more easterly with some taking it well east of the Florida Peninsula.

“This makes sense, as a deeper system is more likely to ‘feel’ the temporary weakness in the mid-level ridge which is expected to develop this weekend,” NWS Miami meteorologists wrote in a morning forecast. “All that being said, given the wave is currently quite disorganized and broad with a defined low-level center yet to be established, there is no real compelling reason to side with one cap or the other.”

Also, NWS Miami forecasters emphasized that even if a more organized storm develops, it doesn’t necessarily imply greater impacts to South Florida as the region could be on the drier west side of the system. At the same time, a sloppy system could result in more rainfall.

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While scattered showers are forecast Tuesday and into Wednesday for Palm Beach County, the Palm Beach International is down 3.34 inches of rain for the month of July as of Monday. Just 1.9 inches of rain had fallen through July 29 making this month the 14th driest in records that date back 131 years.

Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate and how growth affects South Florida’s environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism; subscribe today.