First and 10: Inevitable marriage between Lane Kiffin and Florida now has momentum

1. Lane Kiffin: There’s no stopping the what-if train

So here we are, in a sport that refuses to live in the now because the future is so undeniably delicious, and the Lane Kiffin to Florida dating game has officially begun.

Lane and Florida sitting in a tree, k-i-s-s-i-n-g. First comes a firing, then comes a hiring, then comes Kiffin …

“All of a sudden, our program isn’t terrible,” Kiffin said last weekend in defense of his Ole Miss team after the then-Top 10 Rebels lost at home to Kentucky as a double-digit favorite ― and kicked off the inevitable Florida and Kiffin chase.

Deny it all you want, everyone. This shotgun marriage now has momentum.

Before we go further, Kiffin is absolutely right. The idea that Ole Miss is a fraud, or got exposed or can’t win a big game because of one bad Saturday is wildly shortsighted.

But there’s no chance that’s stopping this train of what-if. If anything, it enhanced it.

It’s all about timing now, and how one more Ole Miss loss sets everything in motion.

The Florida program, once a beacon for all things opulence and arrogance, is a shadow of its former championship self. Gators coach Billy Napier is another discombobulated, dysfunctional loss away from getting tossed on the scrap heap of Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen.

It’s the worst kept secret in college football.

Florida, with every possible advantage to win big, hasn’t done it since Urban Meyer arrived in Gainesville nearly two decades ago and road roughshod over college football with a six-year iron fist that was equal parts remarkable and repulsive.

Then there’s Kiffin, whose coaching career began in 2009 at Tennessee just as Meyer’s run at Florida – and the Gators’ perch on the top of the college football mountain – was starting to fade.

Kiffin began his one-year run at Tennessee by accusing Meyer of NCAA recruiting violations, and then committed multiple violations himself over an 11-month span as the Vols coach before leaving for his dream job at Southern California.

If ever a coach and a program were destined for each other, this is it.

2. Florida’s coaching folly

Let’s dissect Florida’s coaching hires since Meyer skulked out of town after the 2010 season, shall we?

Muschamp: Elite defensive coach and recruiter, couldn’t find/develop a quarterback.

McElwain: Nick Saban assistant, and an expert fisherman.

Mullen: Elite offensive mind, disinterested recruiter.

Meanwhile, the program fell behind in the facilities arms race, and waited a decade before getting serious about spending money because Steve Spurrier and Meyer won national titles without bells and whistles, why can’t everyone else?

Then Napier arrived and was given everything he could possibly want. A new $60 million football facility, and a support staff of 40-plus covering every possible contingency – except the one that mattered most.

What if Napier wasn’t ready for the job?

Now it’s time to hire a true ball coach. One with a track record of recruiting and developing players, who will work the talent-rich state of Florida and organically build a roster into a championship-level team.

Forget what you’ve heard about Kiffin from years past. He made mistakes, who doesn’t?

AT THE END: It’s time for Florida to bid goodbye to Billy Napier

He’s not the carnival barker at Tennessee, or the overwhelmed coach in an untenable situation following Pete Carroll at USC (without 30 scholarships because of NCAA sanctions), or even the unpredictable yet brilliant offensive mind Saban tolerated at Alabama.

He has become a legit ball coach, in every facet of the position.

He has double-digit win seasons (plural) at Ole Miss, including a school-record 11 victories in 2023. He’s as good a quarterback coach/developer and play caller as there is in the game.

Now imagine him recruiting in the state of Florida. Or better yet, coaching Gators talented freshman quarterback DJ Lagway.

3. Chasing Kiffin, The Epilogue

The Kentucky loss isn’t a deal-breaker for the Ole Miss season, but it brings Kffin and the Rebels one loss closer to missing the College Football Playoff. That’s the key to this potential Florida and Kiffin marriage.

Timing is everything.

If Ole Miss is in the playoff, it will be difficult for Kiffin to walk away – and for Florida to wait. If Ole Miss doesn’t advance to the CFP, Florida can hire him the day after the field is set.

We can debate about whether Florida will pay what it takes to get Kiffin (likely $11-12 million a year), and if it’s serious about escaping the college football hinterlands and avoiding the SEC freefall to the depths of Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.

But there is no debate about job value.

Kiffin’s own success at Ole Miss has moved expectations to the level of Florida. In other words, no matter where he coaches, the bar is the CFP and winning it all.

He could coach Ole Miss, and annually rummage through the transfer portal and hope to hit more times than not. Or he could leave for Florida, and recruit and develop from one of the three most talent-rich states for high school football – and add a few impact players from the portal.

Deny it all you want, the fuse has been lit on this looming shotgun marriage.

It’s only a matter of timing.

4. The Big 12: It’s not just Coach Prime

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Big 12. Left for dead when Texas and Oklahoma escaped for the SEC, the reshuffled deck suddenly looks mighty appealing.  

Brigham Young and Iowa State are unbeaten after the first month of the season, and are two of four ranked Big 12 teams (Kansas State and Utah). Meanwhile, there’s the ACC – the other Power Four conference helplessly swirling in the wake of the SEC and Big Ten – making more noise battling its two most important television properties (Florida State, Clemson) in court.

The Big 12, in full desperation mode during conference expansion (and contraction), will play four games with playoff significance over the next two months between the top five teams in the conference: BYU at Utah, Iowa State at Utah, Kansas State at Iowa State, and Texas Tech at Iowa State.   

Those games don’t include Colorado and Arizona, who have two of the best quarterbacks (Shedeur Sanders, Noah Fafita) and wideouts (Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan) in the nation, and will be a problem for everyone.

Colorado still has games against K-State, at Texas Tech and Utah, and Arizona plays Texas Tech and at BYU.

The Big 12 may not have major television properties, but its games over the final two months of the regular season will be better than anything the ACC can produce.    

CALM DOWN: Georgia, Milroe lead college football Week 5 overreactions

5. The Weekly Five

The top five transfer portal quarterback performances after the first month of the season:

1. Cam Ward, Miami (Washington State): 1,782 yards, 18 TD, 4 INT.

2. Kyle McCord, Syracuse (Ohio State): 1,459 yards, 14 TD, 5 INT.

3. Eli Holstein, Pittsburgh (Alabama): 1,186 yards, 12 TDs, 2 INT.

4. Brandon Sorsby, Cincinnati (Indiana): 1,481 yards, 12 TD, 1 INT.

5. Tyler Shough, Louisville (Texas Tech): 1,114 yards, 11 TD, 1 INT.

6. An NFL scout’s take: Kentucky DT Deone Walker

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible player. The scout requested anonymity to protect the team’s draft preparation.

“A giant of a man (6-feet-6, 350 pounds). The sheer power and ability to command double teams and wreck an interior. He’s not a slogger in there. He has an explosive first step, and his hands are heavy and active. He has edge moves; the spin he uses is devastating. A legitimate pass rusher from the interior. He could be the first interior defensive lineman picked.”   

7. Power Play: Alabama back on top

This week’s College Football Playoff Power Poll – including the first four out – and one big thing.

1. Alabama: The first half against Georgia was as good a 30-minute stretch as Alabama ever played under Saban.  

2. Ohio State: At least we’ll see the Buckeyes’ offense forced to work this week against Iowa’s stout defense.

3. Miami: A critical step for a growing team: finding a way to win a game you shouldn’t.

4. BYU: At some point, the inability to consistently run the ball (against a more difficult schedule) will be a problem.

5. Georgia: The comeback from 30-7 was crazy impressive, and may have set the tone for the rest of the season.

6. Texas: Open week gives QB Quinn Ewers better chance of playing vs. Oklahoma.

7. Tennessee: Can Vols stay focused against Arkansas and Florida to set up huge home game vs. Alabama on Oct. 19?

8. Penn State: Lions need more from QB Drew Allar in big games.

9. Missouri: Want to prove your CFP worth? Roll into College Station and beat a hot Aggies team.

10. Oregon: Can’t get a read on this team. Something is off every week.

11. Michigan: Wolverines better show that USC-level intensity, or they’ll lose after a long trip to Washington.

12. Boise State: Broncos run the ball well enough to control tempo and scare the heck out of the No. 5 seed in the playoff.

13. USC: Another trip to the Midwest, another test of USC’s toughness vs. physical Minnesota.

14. Clemson: Time to make a statement against FSU ― even if the Noles are a shadow of their 2023 self.

15. Ole Miss: The passing game is too dangerous to file away the Rebels.

16. Kansas State: Despite ugly loss to BYU, Wildcats still may be Big 12’s most complete team.

8. Mail Bonding: Texas vs. Alabama (and Georgia)

Matt: Can you explain to me how Texas, after winning by 48 and 22 points with a backup quarterback, fell behind Alabama in the polls? – Darrel Crutchfield, San Antonio.

Darrel:

Let me break this down like it has never been broken down before: because voters think Alabama is better. Especially after dissecting Georgia for 30 minutes, playing keep away, and then figuring out how to avoid blowing a 28-point lead.

College football is a glorified eye test until the CFP begins, and I can’t see how any voter came away from that epic show thinking Alabama and Georgia aren’t the two best teams in the nation.

The entire poll process is flawed from the jump, based on some inane idea that an unbeaten team is better than a team with one loss. And one loss is better than two losses, and so on.

Texas gets its shot at Georgia on Oct. 19 in Austin, and we’ll then have a better read on the Longhorns.

9. Numbers Game: Texas A&M’s QB quandary

6.73. Texas A&M coach Mike Elko says injured quarterback Conner Weigman (shoulder) could be cleared to play this week against No. 9 Missouri.

This, of course, means backup Marcel Reed – who led the Aggies to three consecutive wins and has played nearly flawless football – is on the bench. It also means Texas A&M’s most dangerous and dynamic player isn’t on the field.

Not only is Reed completing throws at a better percentage, and has six touchdown passes and no interceptions, he has rushed for 230 yards and two more touchdowns. He’s a dual threat who stresses defenses, and averages 6.73 yards every time the ball is snapped and he’s either attempting a pass (7.4 yards per attempt) or running (5.5 yards per carry).

10. The Final Word: Miami’s wakeup call

The game-winning Hail Mary that wasn’t last Friday for Virginia Tech was the best thing that could’ve happened to Miami.

Without it, the Canes are traveling 3,100 miles to Berkeley, Calif., this weekend without the scars of what almost happened, and sitting around a hotel and waiting and waiting and waiting – until 10:30 p.m. ET to play a dangerous team that has had two weeks to prepare.

This will, by far, be the best defense Ward has played all season. The Bears are No. 12 in the nation in scoring defense (12.8 ppg.), and lead the nation in interceptions (10).