Duke vs. Miami (Florida) Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 10

Miami will look to continue its undefeated season as a big favorite at home against Duke on Saturday afternoon. 

With Heisman Trophy candidate Cam Ward looking to stockpile statistics, he has a great opportunity on Saturday as three-touchdown favorites at home against a flawed 6-2 Duke team that is coached by former Hurricanes head coach Manny Diaz. 

Will the Blue Devils show up for its coach, or is this setting up for another resounding Hurricanes’ victory? 

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Duke 

Maalik Murphy: Murphy has been up-and-down this season, but he has made plays when necessary, making 16 big-time throws to eight turnover-worthy plays this season, per Pro Football Focus. When he is kept clean, he is humming, completing 65% of his passes with 11 BTT to a pair of TWP. However, when under pressure, his completion percentage drops to 24% with five BTT to six TWP. Unfortunately for him, Miami’s defensive line is ferocious, ranking 12th in pass rush grade. 

Miami (Florida)

Cam Ward: Ward has been elite all season, but the Blue Devils have been a turnover-driven defense, second in turnovers gained and top five against EPA/Pass. Some of that is competition-driven, but Ward must be careful with the rock against a Manny Diaz-led defense. He has made 20 big-time throws this season but still has nine turnover-worthy plays. 

While Miami is far superior to Duke, and the Blue Devils are incredibly overrated via turnover luck and an easy schedule, I can’t get to this number. 

The Hurricanes have had trouble covering double-digit spreads in the ACC, failing to cover all three times against the close. Meanwhile, Duke is 5-2-1 against the number without a non-cover as an underdog each of the four times. 

The Blue Devils’ defense has been propped up due to its schedule, but this is still a Diaz-led unit that is hell-bent on causing havoc both in the backfield and downfield, ranking second in tackles for lost and fifth in explosive pass defense. 

Against a Miami team that has been prone to breakdowns and allowing explosive plays, the team is last in explosive pass rate allowed and 90th in explosive pass rate, Duke may be able to hit a few to keep this within three scores. 

PICK: Duke +21

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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