Could tropical storm or hurricane affect your Florida Fourth of July plans?

AccuWeather ‘not sounding alarm bells’ but don’t let your guard down

The second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to form today or Saturday, less than a week before the Fourth of July holiday.

Predictions call for it to quickly become the first hurricane of the season as it moves into the Caribbean.

Although it’s currently Invest 95L, once named, it’ll be Beryl.

➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 95L

➤ Track all active storms

While the future Beryl is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend, predictions on where it will go after that depend on a variety of factors.

Could Florida feel an impact from what will become Beryl, and could any impacts affect your Fourth of July plans? Here’s what you should know.

Current forecast for Invest 95L. When will it become Tropical Storm Beryl?

Invest 95L: A low pressure system located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better defined.

Showers and thunderstorms are also showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form later today or on Saturday.

➤ Tropics watch June 28: Tropical Storm Beryl expected to form soon

This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend. Residents in the area should monitor the progress of this system.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 90 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.

Spaghetti models for Invest 95L. Will it approach Florida?

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Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

Invest 95L becoming better organized. Could become hurricane early next week

“As we speak, the storm is betting a lot better organized and may form later today or by tomorrow morning” into Tropical Storm Beryl, said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster

“The official forecast is for a strong tropical storm to approach the Less Antilles Monday. It may become a hurricane by then, and we’re getting a little more concerned about that possibility” DaSilva said.

“There’s plenty of warm water. Wind shear is decreasing as the storm moves west. It’s dealing with some dry air and wind shear right now but (conditions) are turning more favorable for development over the weekend.”

Timeline: Where could Beryl go and when will it become a hurricane?

Look for the storm to approach the Lesser Antilles Monday and move into the Central Caribbean Tuesday or Wednesday.

Where it goes after that, along with development, depend on a couple of factors: land interaction and a system of high pressure over the southeastern United States, DaSilva said.

If it moves over Hispaniola or eastern Cuba, the land and mountains could disrupt its circulation, leading to less organization and weakening from a wind speed perspective. That doesn’t mean those areas wouldn’t feel an impact from the storm, which could dump a huge amount of rain on the islands, DaSilva said.

By the Fourth of July, the storm will likely be a hurricane in the western Caribbean, south of Cuba.

“From that point, we’re going to have to watch an area of high pressure across the southeastern U.S. If there is weakness in that high-pressure system, (Beryl) could be drawn up north into either the Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Peninsula,” DaSilva said.

Timing would be next weekend if it does get drawn north, so really watch this thing July 5-7, DaSilva said.

If the system of high pressure stays strong, the storm will be forced west and go into Yucatan and Mexico. with no real impacts to the U.S.

Will Florida feel any impact from Beryl on Fourth of July?

The system that’s expected to become Beryl is compact so nothing should be felt across Florida on the Fourth of July that’s associated with the storm.

“You may get just the normal run-of-the-mill summer thunderstorms, but nothing associated with Beryl,” DaSilva said.

July 4th Florida forecast: Scorching heat and severe storms ahead. Where to watch in Florida. See radar

Worst-case scenario: Florida could feel impact from Beryl by next weekend

Long-range forecasts can change a lot and depend on several evolving factors, but the worst-case scenario could see some impact from Beryl across Florida next weekend.

How much or even if anything is felt depend on the state of the storm later next week and interaction with the islands, which could pull it apart. But if there’s less interaction with land, the system could become more organized, DaSilva said.

A worst case scenario all depend on the state of the storm next week and that interaction with Cuba and Hispaniola. One possibility is rain associated with Beryl affecting Florida next weekend.

The most likely scenario is that Beryl will head west into Mexico and miss Florida entirely, DaSilva said.

“We want people to be alert and aware. We don’t want people to be caught off guard. We’re not sounding alarm bells, and the holiday looks OK. Beyond that, just watch and see,” DaSilva said.

Hurricane Beryl likely to ‘plow’ through Windward Islands next week

Hurricane Tracker App tweeted Friday morning:

“It’s becoming likely that we will have a Hurricane named #Beryl plowing through the Windward Islands Mon am through Tues am.

“Data shows it reaching Cat 1 status with winds 74-95 mph. All interests in the Windward Islands should be preparing for a hurricane. Upgrade likely today (Friday, June 28).”