Can Miami sign another top-5 class? What is DJ Lagway’s impact? State of Florida recruiting mailbag

With less than 24 hours before the start of the early signing period, Billy Napier and the Florida Gators have been skyrocketing up the recruiting rankings.

Mario Cristobal’s Miami Hurricanes — hoping to sign a third consecutive top-10 class — lost a key commitment Monday and could be on the verge of losing a few others. And Mike Norvell’s Florida State Seminoles, whose season went awry a long time ago, are fighting to get into the top 50.

You have recruiting questions. We have some educated opinions. Let’s dive in.

What kind of impact will DJ Lagway’s play have on recruiting for the Gators? — Micah B.

A huge one. Lagway’s five-star aura helped land prospects before he even signed with Florida. After Jadan Baugh scored five touchdowns against Kentucky, he brought up some of his recruiting conversations with Lagway. Now that Lagway is living up to the hype, the Gators’ pitch looks even better, especially for offensive skill talent (in high schools or the transfer portal).

Since Lagway became the starter after Graham Mertz tore his ACL in October, the Gators have flipped 10 commitments (including five blue-chip prospects). Lagway, at minimum, deserves indirect credit for that. A few weeks ago, Napier said the uncertainty around his future was “probably the only” uphill battle the Gators had faced in recruiting. That uncertainty had recently disappeared because athletic director Scott Stricklin gave Napier a public vote of confidence. And Napier earned that vote of confidence in part because Lagway was starting a turnaround in 2024 while flashing his sky-high potential for 2025 and 2026. We probably won’t know the full DJ Lagway Effect for months or years, but he looks like Florida’s most important recruit since Tim Tebow. — Baker

A third straight top-10 class seems like a lock for Miami. But can it possibly get back-to-back top-five classes? — Hassan K.

I’m not trying to set off the panic button, Hassan, but slow your roll. Things could get dicey on Wednesday.

Florida flipped top-100 safety Hylton Stubbs on Monday and there are rumors the Gators could also sign four-star receiver Joshua Moore, a former Florida commitment who flipped to the Canes in October. Miami also appears on the verge of losing longtime four-star linebacker commitment Gavin Nix to Oregon. If Miami loses all three, the Hurricanes could drop outside the top 15.

Now, could the Hurricanes still add some big pieces to the class? Yes. The fight to swipe five-star cornerback DJ Pickett away from LSU, five-star receiver Dallas Wilson from Oregon, four-star cornerback Ben Hanks Jr. from Florida and four-star linebacker Tarvos Alford from Ohio State will continue all the way up until the final moments. But, understand, things might not go Miami’s way. When big dollar figures are being tossed around late in the game, things happen. — Navarro

Part of the reason for Alabama’s long run of dominance under Nick Saban was it robbed Florida schools blind of the best in-state talent. Georgia has been doing that a lot recently, too. Between UCF going to the Big 12 and Miami’s resurgence, have more in-state players (especially southern Florida ones) stayed home? Or is the exodus still an issue? — Jesse K.

It’s still an issue. Of the nation’s top 100 recruits in 2002, 16 were from Florida. The state’s big three signed 14 of them. This cycle, 12 of the top 100 recruits in the 247Sports Composite are native Floridians (excluding transplants at IMG Academy). Florida schools have commitments from only four: five-star offensive lineman Solomon Thomas (Florida State), five-star receiver Vernell Brown III (Florida), four-star safety Hylton Stubbs (Florida) and four-star cornerback Ben Hanks Jr. (Florida). Even with a flip or two, half the state’s best players are leaving. That, as you note, is a trend. In the previous two cycles, only 12 of the 30 top-tier recruits stayed home.

UCF is recruiting at a higher level after moving to the Big 12, but the Knights still haven’t consistently signed elite prospects. John Walker (a top-100 defensive lineman in the 2023 class) was the exception, not the rule. More success from Miami and Florida will slow, but not stop, the exodus.

Florida’s talent drain has drawn the interest from everyone up to the state’s governor, Ron DeSantis. But the idea of putting a fence around the state’s top prospects isn’t feasible in an era of national recruiting, social media and NIL. I don’t see how the exodus ever stops being an issue. — Baker

Can Alex Golesh get the top G5 recruiting class in the nation again this year at USF? — T K.

USF has lost 10 players to the P4 from this class already. Is that a sign that Golesh has an eye for talent or a cause for concern? – David W.

The Bulls should remain in the conversation for the top Group of 5 class. On3 puts them second behind only Memphis. The 247Sports Composite has them second behind Georgia State. Rivals ranks them third behind Florida Atlantic (which will have to deal with coaching turnover) and Washington State (assuming we label the Cougars a G5 program).

As far as the Power 4 poaching, there are a few factors worth mentioning. Strong early evaluations by Golesh and his staff are encouraging, David; an eye for talent is a valuable skill. It’s also good to have the willingness and ability to compete with power programs for recruits, like four-star tight end Jonathan Echols in the last cycle.

But there are some potential concerns to consider, too. Realistically, USF won’t win many recruiting battles against a program like Ole Miss (which has two of those former commits) or Notre Dame (which flipped four-star cornerback Antavious Richardson). At what point is a staff wasting resources on battles they’re unlikely to win? That’s something that must be weighed because every phone call that goes to a lost cause is one that can’t go to another, more attainable player.

We also have to note which Power 4 schools are landing former commits. USF expects to compete with the lower-level P4 programs, so losing recruits to Minnesota, Wake Forest or Boston College is more troubling than losing them to Ole Miss. The Bulls have said they plan to spend at the top level allowed in future revenue-sharing with athletes. Depending on the details, perhaps that negates some of the Power 4’s advantages. Will it? I have no idea. But it’s something to monitor as USF tries to fight the Power 4 prestige. — Baker

Who does FIU have to hire to capture the No. 1 recruiting class in Conference USA? Plenty of South Florida talent. — Alex S.

Mike MacIntyre, who was fired on Sunday, signed the No. 3 recruiting class in the conference in 2024 and the No. 2 class in 2023. So, it’s not really going to take a lot for whoever is hired next to climb to No. 1 in a conference where the best class finishes somewhere in the 80s of the national rankings.

What FIU needs more than anything else is someone to start pouring serious money into its NIL efforts so the good players they do sign and develop aren’t heading out the door for more money a year or two later. I think the program needs multiple energetic coaches who can raise money and bring the community out to watch games. Average home attendance for FIU games was 14,706 fans (62.58 percent of capacity) in 2024.

Tim Harris Jr., UCF’s offensive coordinator and a University of Miami grad with deep South Florida roots, is the ideal candidate to replace MacIntyre in part because he’s affordable (he was making $600,000 at UCF). But I’d encourage FIU to consider hiring some assistants with name recognition and recruiting pull. I’d put former 2 Live Crew rapper turned Miami Edison High football coach Luther Campbell on the staff to help keep some high-quality local kids home. — Navarro

Two years ago FAU made what most thought to be the best hire in the AAC by getting Tom Herman. Now, he is gone. What happened? Can FAU turn it around and become competitive in the AAC? What will it take for this to happen? — David W.

Like FIU, FAU needs money to start pouring in or the Owls are always going to be a second-tier program in a Group of 5 conference. Today’s game is run by dollars, and most G5 programs just simply aren’t going to be able to hold onto good coaches and players for very long. Money talks.

I thought the next hired had to be someone like Lane Kiffin — with name recognition, quarterback coaching chops and an offensive philosophy that generates a lot of points. That’s why I like the hire the Owls are reportedly making in Texas Tech offensive coordinator Zach Kittley. He’s 33 and is a Kliff Kingsbury protege who helped develop Patrick Mahomes and has done a good job at every stop as an offensive coordinator. — Navarro

(Top photos of Mario Cristobal, Billy Napier: Brett Davis, Klement Neitzel / Imagin Images)