Byron Donalds’ chances of winning Florida governor’s seat, new poll shows

Republican Congressman Byron Donalds is trailing Democratic candidate David Jolly in the race to become Florida’s next governor, according to a new poll from Change Research, a Democratic-aligned polling firm.

The survey could be an encouraging sign for Florida Democrats, who have not won a statewide election since 2018 and have struggled as the state shifted steadily toward Republicans in recent election cycles.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican who is term-limited and cannot seek reelection in 2026, won a second term by nearly 20 percentage points in 2022, while Republicans have expanded their voter registration advantage and maintained control of every statewide elected office.

Still, some recent polling has suggested the push to replace DeSantis could be a bit more competitive than many have expected.

President Donald Trump last month again vocalized his support for Donalds, saying in part, “I know Byron well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a TOTAL WINNER!” The president added, “Byron Donalds will be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement — HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!”

Trump won the Sunshine State by 13 points in 2024 against then-Vice President Kamala Harris and no Democrat has won the Florida governorship in more than 20 years.

When reached for comment regarding the new poll, Donalds’ campaign referred Newsweek to the X post of Gates McGavick, the team’s communications director. McGavick said in reaction to the poll, “I hear Change Research also sells tremendous ocean front property in Arizona.”

The campaign also referred Newsweek to Ryan Smith’s post on X, while saying he is also affiliated with the campaign. Smith said, “This is a push poll by Democrats for Democrats. The truth is, Florida Democrats will be crying in their kombucha on November 3 when @ByronDonalds is elected governor.”

What To Know

The Change Research survey found Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties and entered the race as a Democrat, leading Donalds in a hypothetical general-election matchup.

Jolly has centered his campaign on affordability issues surrounding insurance costs, housing and healthcare, while Donalds has campaigned as a conservative successor who will attempt to enact Trump’s agenda and fight illegal immigration.

According to the poll, Jolly leads Donalds 47 percent to 42 percent and has a slightly larger margin among likely voters with 49 percent compared to 43 percent.

The poll surveyed 1,273 registered voters of which 1,015 said they will likely vote in the 2026 midterm election. The survey’s margin of error is 2.8 percent.

Also in the poll, Jolly garners 94 percent support from Democrats compared to Donalds’ 77 percent among Republicans.

What Other Polls Show

Another recent Change Research poll shows Jolly leading Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent. The poll was taken from May 13 to May 16 among 2,070 registered voters, of whom 1,593 say they will likely vote in the midterm election. The poll has a margin of error of 2.3 percent.

In a survey at the end of March by Emerson College Polling, Donalds landed 44 percent of the vote compared to Jolly’s 39 percent. The poll shows that 17 percent are undecided. It was taken from March 29 to March 31 among 1,125 likely voters and has a margin of error of 2.8 percent.