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Byron Donalds’ chances of winning Florida governor’s seat, new poll shows

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Byron Donalds’ chances of winning Florida governor’s seat, new poll shows


Republican Congressman Byron Donalds is trailing Democratic candidate David Jolly in the race to become Florida’s next governor, according to a new poll from Change Research, a Democratic-aligned polling firm.

The survey could be an encouraging sign for Florida Democrats, who have not won a statewide election since 2018 and have struggled as the state shifted steadily toward Republicans in recent election cycles.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican who is term-limited and cannot seek reelection in 2026, won a second term by nearly 20 percentage points in 2022, while Republicans have expanded their voter registration advantage and maintained control of every statewide elected office.

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Still, some recent polling has suggested the push to replace DeSantis could be a bit more competitive than many have expected.

President Donald Trump last month again vocalized his support for Donalds, saying in part, “I know Byron well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a TOTAL WINNER!” The president added, “Byron Donalds will be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement — HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!”

Trump won the Sunshine State by 13 points in 2024 against then-Vice President Kamala Harris and no Democrat has won the Florida governorship in more than 20 years.

When reached for comment regarding the new poll, Donalds’ campaign referred Newsweek to the X post of Gates McGavick, the team’s communications director. McGavick said in reaction to the poll, “I hear Change Research also sells tremendous ocean front property in Arizona.”

The campaign also referred Newsweek to Ryan Smith’s post on X, while saying he is also affiliated with the campaign. Smith said, “This is a push poll by Democrats for Democrats. The truth is, Florida Democrats will be crying in their kombucha on November 3 when @ByronDonalds is elected governor.”

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What To Know

The Change Research survey found Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties and entered the race as a Democrat, leading Donalds in a hypothetical general-election matchup.

Jolly has centered his campaign on affordability issues surrounding insurance costs, housing and healthcare, while Donalds has campaigned as a conservative successor who will attempt to enact Trump’s agenda and fight illegal immigration.

According to the poll, Jolly leads Donalds 47 percent to 42 percent and has a slightly larger margin among likely voters with 49 percent compared to 43 percent.

The poll surveyed 1,273 registered voters of which 1,015 said they will likely vote in the 2026 midterm election. The survey’s margin of error is 2.8 percent.

Also in the poll, Jolly garners 94 percent support from Democrats compared to Donalds’ 77 percent among Republicans.

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What Other Polls Show

Another recent Change Research poll shows Jolly leading Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent. The poll was taken from May 13 to May 16 among 2,070 registered voters, of whom 1,593 say they will likely vote in the midterm election. The poll has a margin of error of 2.3 percent.

In a survey at the end of March by Emerson College Polling, Donalds landed 44 percent of the vote compared to Jolly’s 39 percent. The poll shows that 17 percent are undecided. It was taken from March 29 to March 31 among 1,125 likely voters and has a margin of error of 2.8 percent.



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Iranian drones in Cuba could threaten South Florida, officials warn

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Iranian drones in Cuba could threaten South Florida, officials warn


An Iranian-made drone displayed at the Biltmore Hotel served as a stark warning from national security advocates and South Florida officials who say Cuba’s growing military ties with Iran could pose a threat to the United States.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, chairman of the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, joined U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Florida, to highlight concerns about what they say are roughly 300 Iranian drones that have been delivered to Cuba.

Standing alongside one of the drones, Bush described the weapon as among the deadliest battlefield threats faced by American forces in recent years.

“Most loss of life of the U.S. military than any single weapon that exists over the last 15 years,” Bush said.

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Gimenez warned that the drones’ capabilities make them particularly concerning because of their ability to carry significant explosive payloads over long distances.

“This particular model, there is about over 100 pounds of explosives,” Gimenez said. “That’s a pretty big bang. That’s why they call them kamikaze drones — they crash into their target and they explode.”

According to Gimenez, the drones can reach speeds of about 115 miles per hour and travel more than 1,000 miles, placing South Florida well within range. He said the aircraft could also reach the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay and other cities throughout the southeastern United States, including Tallahassee and Atlanta.

The congressman said one of the primary concerns is the potential for Iran-style drone warfare tactics, in which large numbers of drones are launched simultaneously to overwhelm air defense systems.

While the United States has sophisticated defense systems capable of intercepting incoming drones, Gimenez noted that a successful strike may require only one, or a handful of aircraft to penetrate those defenses.

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The event was organized by United Against Nuclear Iran, which has sought to draw attention to expanding military and strategic cooperation between Iran and countries aligned with its interests, including Cuba.

Supporters of the group’s effort say the growing presence of Iranian military technology in the Western Hemisphere warrants increased attention from policymakers and defense officials.

For South Florida residents, the warning underscores the region’s proximity to Cuba and the continuing role the island nation plays in broader geopolitical tensions involving the United States and its adversaries.



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Video shows man attack Florida deputies in snake-and-gator-infested canal, sheriff says

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Video shows man attack Florida deputies in snake-and-gator-infested canal, sheriff says


Body camera video shows a man fighting with Florida deputies who were trying to rescue him from a snake-and-alligator-infested canal, authorities said.

The incident happened July 3 when Flagler County Sheriff’s Office deputies found a man lying on the ground shirtless in front of an elementary school.

The man, 47-year-old Ryan McMinn, who had been then subject of a previous welfare check, fled on foot, the sheriff’s office said.

A short time later, authorities received a call about a man trying to climb on the side of a house in Palm Coast.

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Deputies responded and found McMinn near the canal behind the house and when he spotted the deputies, McMinn ran into the canal and started swimming, authorities said.

“What’s your name?” a deputy asks him in the bodycam footage, as McMinn is seen swimming backwards. “You getting tired?”

Officials said McMinn was ordered to get out of the water multiple times but refused, and when he started to show signs of exhaustion, two deputies went into the canal to pull him out.

The video released by the sheriff’s office on Monday shows the deputies wading into the water before a struggle ensues.

Authorities said McMinn tried to grab one deputy’s head to push it under the water, before he tried to grab the neck of the other deputy.

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The deputies were able to get control of McMinn and get him safely to shore.

He was hospitalized before he was arrested and booked into jail on two counts of battery on a law enforcement officer.

“Battering a Deputy Sheriff will guarantee you the loss of your freedom and a trip to jail,” Flagler Sheriff Rick Staly said. “These deputies went into the water to rescue this guy, and he responded by fighting them. I commend our deputies for their willingness to get in a canal that usually have snakes and gators and pull this guy to safety before he drowned.”



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Heat alerts expand across Florida as dangerous temperatures return

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Heat alerts expand across Florida as dangerous temperatures return


The Sunshine State closed out the first month of meteorological summer with a mixed-bag of temperatures, as daily thunderstorm activity helped to keep some communities cooler while others reported one of their hottest Junes on record.

The contrasting observations across the state highlights just how localized Florida’s weather can be, with the sometimes cooler than average temperatures occurring just miles away from heat islands.

Clermont, in Central Florida, recorded its warmest June when compared to typical values, finishing about 4 degrees above average for the month. Meanwhile, Pensacola was the coolest major metro area across the state, ending the month approximately 2 degrees below average.

Cooler than average temperatures were largely found along the Panhandle, while Central and South Florida were home to the heat.

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June temperature departure map.

Regions that experienced frequent afternoon showers and thunderstorms generally recorded temperatures closer to seasonal averages, while locations that missed out on the rainfall often experienced temperatures that were well above average.

As a whole, warmer readings outweighed the cooler ones during the first month of meteorological summer, allowing the Sunshine State to experience one of its tenth warmest Junes on record.

The arrival of July has done little to change the pattern, with temperatures expected to get even warmer during the next few weeks.

Forecast models show another extended period of above-average temperatures developing this week as a ridge of high pressure builds across the Sunshine State.

The warmer conditions are expected along and north of the Interstate 4 corridor, where afternoon high temperatures are expected to climb into at least the upper 90s.

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When combined with the humidity, the heat index could reach between 104 and 110 degrees through most of the state through the remaining days of the workweek and into the weekend.

Expected heat index values across Florida on Wednesday, June 8.
Expected heat index values across Florida on Wednesday, June 8.

The heat indices mean that NOAA’s HeatRisk will reach the Major category in many areas with some neighborhoods potentially reaching the Extreme category.

Residents and visitors spending time outdoors are encouraged to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in the air conditioning and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest parts of the day.

Forecast guidance suggests that some ridging will remain in place through at least the middle of next week, leading to several days of above normal heat.

Due to the abundance of seeking air, widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be hard to come by.

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Whether the current pattern persists through the remainder of the month remains uncertain, but the final week of July is climatologically the warmest period of the year, when average afternoon highs reach at least the low to mid-90s.

Synoptic setup for Thursday.
Synoptic setup for Thursday.





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