Best Texas Tech vs. Florida props, ATS picks: Gators clear favorites

The Big Dance heats up on Saturday night with Elite Eight matchups between Texas Tech (3) and Florida (1) and Alabama (2) and Duke (1).

In tonight’s opener, SEC Tournament champ Florida (33-4, 14-4 SEC) will look to stay hot against the best team it has seen in the West Region, the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Florida reached this stage with wins over 16-seed Norfolk State, 8-seed UConn and 4-seed Maryland, sandwiching blowouts of the Spartans and Terrapins around a close call vs. the Huskies in the round of 32.

Texas Tech (28-8, 15-5 Big 12) needed a furious late rally and overtime to survive vs. Arkansas (10) on Thursday night. This team beat a 14-seed (UNC Wilmington) in the first round and an 11-seed (Drake) in the second ahead of the Sweet 16 battle with Arkansas. The way those teams were seeded undersells how stiff the Red Raiders’ NCAAT competition has been, though.

Texas Tech vs. Florida Odds: Spread, ML, Total

The player to watch tonight is TT star JT Toppin, who won Big 12 Player of the Year after averaging just over 18 points and 9 rebounds per game. Florida boasts a star of its own in Walter Clayton Jr., but how Toppin fares on the block will likely have more impact on who wins, as the heavily favored Gators are balanced enough to survive a quiet night from Clayton.

The Red Raiders could* also get a boost from All-Big 12 Second Teamer Chance McMillian, who is a 43.4 percent 3-point shooter, but he’s been listed as day-to-day for multiple weeks now.

*Key word “could.” As of Saturday morning, it was unclear whether McMillian would return tonight from an oblique strain he suffered in his team’s Big 12 Tournament quarterfinal matchup vs. Baylor.

How to Watch Texas Tech vs. Florida

• Tipoff: 6:09 p.m. ET
• Channel: TBS/truTV

Best Texas Tech vs. Florida Player Prop

Thomas Haugh o11.5 points (+100 at FD) — 1 units

The balanced Gators are not an easy team to target on the props front, but one particular player on Florida’s deep bench appears primed to have a huge night.

Sophomore big man Thomas Haugh has come off the bench in all but five games this year, but his minutes and production are trending in the right direction right now.

Obviously, if starter Alex Condon is hobbled or has to miss this game, Haugh’s ceiling is sky-high. But even if Condon manages to both suit up and be effective tonight, Haugh is playing too well right now not to get minutes.

His numbers in just 22 minutes vs. Norfolk State (No. 178 per KenPom) should be taken with a grain of salt, but are still worth mentioning: 13 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 2 blocks.

His production vs. Connecticut and Maryland doesn’t need a caveat, though.

Haugh had 7 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists vs. in 27 minutes vs. the reigning national champs, and he was even better in an extended appearance (32 minutes) vs. the Terps, with 13 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 1 block.

Against a Texas Tech frontcourt that boasts not only one of the best back-to-the-basket scorers in the country in Toppin, but also 6-foot-6 battering ram Darrion Williams, Haugh will be needed, even if Condon is 100 percent healthy.

Haugh’s rebounds prop — Over 6.5 Rebounds (+100 at bet365) — is also extremely tempting at even money.

These prices and lines will change in a big way if Condon is ruled out, so if these interest you, now is the time to hop on them.

Florida vs. Texas Tech Prediction, Best Bets

I’ve got two takes on this matchup. Unfortunately, they kinda contradict each other, but bear with me here as I explain myself:

• JT Toppin won’t be as effective as usual offensively.
• Texas Tech will keep this close

If you just look at the box score from Thursday night, you’ll see that Maryland big man Derik Queen lit the Gators up for 27 points on 8-for-17 shooting. But that doesn’t mean Toppin is positioned for the same kind of production. Queen did his damage off the dribble, and that is not how Toppin operates.

It’s hard to deny that Florida’s ceiling is higher than Texas Tech’s, especially if Condon is anywhere near 100 percent and McMillian remains sidelined.

Florida, however, was sloppy at times vs. both Connecticut and Maryland — some of the mistakes were caused by great defense, but a number of them were not — and I think we’ll see some lulls from the Gators again tonight.

Ultimately, though, Florida is well-suited to contain Toppin and Williams — who are two of the biggest bullies (in a good way) in the country — and it has the firepower in the backcourt to pull this thing out.

It won’t be a cakewalk, though.

Remember, Texas Tech is the only team in the country that has beaten Houston since February. Also keep in mind that the Red Raiders pulled that off on the road in a game they essentially played without Toppin, who was ejected in the first five minutes.

Obviously, Texas Tech won’t be able to hang with Florida if it starts this contest in a shooting funk like the one it was in for most of the Arkansas game. That being said, I do like the underdogs to keep this thing competitive from start to finish (cover).

Florida vs. Texas Tech Best Bets

• Texas Tech +7 (-110 at bet365) — 1 unit

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