Dallas, TX
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 1-7-2024
We’ve reached the final week of the NFL regular season and there are still some things undecided in the playoff picture. In a NFC East battle coming to you from the nation’s capital, the Dallas Cowboys are on the road with plenty at stake as they take on the Washington Commanders Sunday afternoon. Dallas comes in off a 20-19 home win over Detroit in their previous game last Saturday, failing to cover the line as a 4.5-point favorite. Washington was dropped 27-10 by San Francisco at home in their previous contest, failing to cover the line as a 14-point underdog. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Cowboys own a 77-46-2 advantage, including a 45-10 home win in the most recent matchup on November 23, 2023.
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Dallas Cowboys Trying to Secure NFC East Crown
Dallas managed to survive at home against Detroit last week, in part due to a bungled call on a Lions’ two-point conversion in the final minute that would have given Detroit the lead. The Cowboys improved to 11-5 on the season and find themselves tied with the Eagles for the division lead. A win here, or an Eagles loss to the Giants, would give Dallas the NFC East crown and the #2 seed in the NFC playoffs. Against Detroit, Dallas led 7-3 after the opening quarter and at the half, then found themselves even at 10 at the end of three quarters. The Cowboys rallied to take a 20-13 lead with 1:41 to play only to see the Lions drive down the field for a touchdown with 23 seconds to play. Detroit converted the initial two-point conversion only to be flagged: the Cowboys came up with the stop on the ensuing attempt to secure the victory. Dallas was outgained 420-384 in total offense, lost the first down battle 21-17 and was edged 30:36 to 29:24 in time of possession yet managed to prevail. Each team turned the ball over twice in the game.
This season, the Cowboys are 2nd in the league in passing offense with 262.8 yards per contest. Dallas is 11th in rushing offense with 118.6 yards per game this season. The Cowboys are 3rd in scoring offense as they average 29.4 points a night. Dallas stands 5th in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 19.1 points a contest. Dak Prescott has hit 379 of 554 passes for 4,237 yards with 32 touchdowns and eight interceptions on the year. He has been sacked 39 times for 255 yards in losses while adding 242 yards plus two scores on the ground. Cooper Rush is 15 of 20 for 114 yards and an interception. Tony Pollard leads the team on the ground with 235 carries for 935 yards and five scores. Rico Dowdle (80 carries, 315 yards, two TD), KaVontae Turpin (10 carries, 105 yards, TD) and rookie Deuce Vaughn (23 carries, 40 yards) have all seen some work in the ground game as well. CeeDee Lamb leads the team with 122 receptions for 1,651 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Michael Gallup (34 catches, 418 yards, two TD), Pollard (53 catches, 295 yards, two TD), Brandin Cooks (48 grabs, 618 yards, seven TD), Jalen Tolbert (20 receptions, 260 yards, TD and tight end Jake Ferguson (65 grabs, 692 yards, five TD) are the other players with more than 250 receiving yards this season. Brandon Aubrey is 44 of 47 on extra point attempts and 35 of 35 on field goal attempts with a long of 60 this season.
Dallas had a lengthy injury report when it was first released this week. Tackles Tyler Smith (foot) and Tyron Smith (non-injury related/rest), guard Zack Martin (non-injury related/rest), defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence (non-injury related/rest), safety Malik Hooker (non-injury related/rest) along with cornerbacks Jourdan Lewis (non-injury related/rest) and Juanyeh Thomas (illness) all didn’t practice Wednesday. Defensive end Dorance Armstrong (ankle), defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins (knee/ankle), running back Rico Dowdle (ankle), wide receiver Brandin Cooks (non-injury related/rest) and cornerback Stephon Gilmore (non-injury related/rest) were all limited. Watch for more information as we get closer to kickoff.
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Washington Commanders Hoping to Play Spoiler
Washington gave San Francisco a game for a while but ended up suffering their seventh straight loss last Sunday. The Commanders are in the basement of the NFC East with a 4-12 mark and have been eliminated from playoff contention. Against San Francisco, Washington trailed 10-0 after the opening quarter, rallied to tie the game at 10 and went down 13-10 on a field goal just before halftime. The Commanders wouldn’t score again as they were outscored 14-0 in the second half to take the loss. Washington was outgained 408-225 in total offense, gave up 28 first downs while picking up 12, lost time of possession by a 38:13 to 21:47 margin and committed the game’s only two turnovers in the loss.
The Commanders enter week 18 18th in the league in passing offense with 224.7 yards per game while they are 24th in rushing by averaging 96.4 yards per contest on the ground. Washington is 23rd in the league in scoring offense by putting up 19.9 points per game while they are 32nd in the league in scoring defense by allowing an average of 30 points per game. Sam Howell is 369 of 585 passing for 3,793 yards with 20 touchdowns and 19 interceptions while ranking second on the team with 264 rushing yards and five scores. He has been sacked a staggering 61 times for the season. Jacoby Brissett is 18 of 23 for 224 yards and three scores while adding 19 yards on the ground. Brian Robinson Jr. leads the team with 169 carries for 708 yards and five scores on the ground. Antonio Gibson (63 carries, 257 yards, TD) and Chris Rodriguez Jr. (51 carries, 247 yards, two TD) are the secondary backs in the system. Terry McLaurin leads the team with 73 receptions for 946 yards and four scores this season. Curtis Samuel (60 catches, 598 yards, four TD), Logan Thomas (54 grabs, 487 yards, four TD), Jahan Dotson (47 receptions, 501 yards, four TD), Robinson Jr. (33 grabs, 358 yards, three TD) and Gibson (45 catches, 361 yards, two TD) are each over 300 receiving yards this season. Joey Slye is 31 of 34 on extra point attempts and 18 of 23 on field goal attempts with a long of 61 this year.
Washington has some key names on their early injury report for the week. Defensive tackle Jonathan Allen (knee) along with cornerbacks Tariq Castro-Fields (shoulder), Kendall Fuller (knee) and Christian Holmes (concussion) all did not practice Wednesday. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett (hamstring), tackle Andrew Wylie (elbow), defensive tackle John Ridgeway (foot) along with defensive backs Benjamin St.-Juste (concussion) and Quan Martin (chest) were each limited. Watch for any updates regarding their statuses. One thing is for certain: Howell will start at quarterback after nearly being benched last week prior to Brissett’s injury in practice.
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When you look at this game, you automatically think blowout city. After all, Dallas is 11-5 and can win the NFC East with a win, while Washington is 4-12 and likely will be looking for a new coach next season. The Cowboys rolled over the Commanders in the first meeting this season back on Thanksgiving in blowout fashion. All of those facts are solid and true. The problem with the Cowboys is that this game isn’t in Jerryland but on the road, which hasn’t been kind to Dallas this season. Dallas is just 3-5 on the road this season and go from averaging 37.4 points per game at home to just 21.5 points per game on the road. They have scored 14 fewer touchdowns in the same number of games as the visiting team. Washington is as porous as they come defensively and they may be mentally checked out. Still, seeing Dallas’ road splits, laying nearly two touchdowns is too rich for my blood. Straight up, the call is Dallas all day but with the points, you have to lean toward the Commanders to keep it within the line.
Prediction: Washington Commanders +13.5
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Dallas enters this game having gone over the team in eight of their 16 games on the season. The Cowboys have stayed under the number in five of their eight road games in relation to the total on the road this year though the 49ers did most of the heavy lifting in one of the overs while the Cardinals won by double figures in a second over. They come into this game with four straight unders overall. Washington has seen the over hit in nine of their 16 games this season. The Commanders have gone over the total in four of their seven home games this season: their loss to San Francisco snapped a run of four straight overs at FedEx Field. Given Dallas’ inability to put up big numbers on the road, this game likely ends up falling short of the total.
Prediction: Under 46.5