12:30 p.m. Update

AUSTIN – A Flash Flood Warning remains in effect until 2:45 p.m. for Dewitt, Gonzales and Lavaca Counties.

From the National Weather Service, at 12:21 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to3 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include: Gonzales, Shiner, Hochheim, Cheapside, Hamon, Glaze City, Dreyer,  Dilworth, Little New York, Wrightsboro, Nickle and Henkhaus. A gauge in Moulton has reported 3.43 inches of rain in the past hour.

12 p.m. Update

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued aFlash Flood Warning for South Central Fayette County in south central Texas, Eastern Gonzales County in south central Texas, and Northwestern Lavaca County in south central Texas until 3:15 PM CDT.

At 1209 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of  1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

Sunday Weather Forecast

Central Texas residents are advised to remain “weather aware” Sunday as a series of storms moved through the region, bringing with them a Level 2 risk for severe weather and potential flash flooding.

While a severe thunderstorm watch for downtown Austin was allowed to shrink and expire during the morning hours, conditions remain favorable for isolated, intense activity through the afternoon and evening.

Severe risks and hazards

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the majority of the Austin viewing area under a widespread Level 2 risk. We are particularly concerned with:

• Large Hail: A “hatched” area indicates the potential for hail up to two inches in diameter.
• Damaging Winds: Gusts could accompany cells moving through the Hill Country and I-35 corridor.
• Isolated Tornadoes: While the threat remains low (approximately 2% or less), forecasters noted it is “not zero.”
• Flooding: Some areas could see between 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, potentially leading to ponding in low-lying and flood-prone areas.

Model uncertainty

There are inconsistencies between weather models, with some suggesting a washout and others showing more isolated activity.

I’m thinking as we move throughout the day, we could be seeing some isolated activity that could be strong to severe. The reality will likely fall “somewhere in the middle” of current projections.

The week ahead

The warm, muggy pattern is expected to persist as winds pull moisture from the south-southeast.

• Daily Chances: While Sunday holds the highest coverage, rain and storm chances continue through the workweek.
• Midweek Spike: Storm chances rise again on Wednesday.
• Weekend Outlook: Another “soggy and stormy” Saturday is projected for next weekend.

Temperatures will climb from the upper 60s into the low 80s today. A warming trend will push afternoon highs near 90 degrees by Friday before the next system arrives.