Atlanta, GA
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 12-10-2023
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons will play on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. This week’s pivotal matchup pits the leaders of the NFC South, making this game a must-win for both sides. Kickoff is at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Tampa Bay (5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS, 4-8 O/U) beat Carolina 21-18 in its last game, and Atlanta (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS, 4-8 O/U) beat the Jets 13-8. The Falcons beat the Bucs 16-13 on October 22. ATL outgained TB 401-329 with 156 rushing yards, overcoming three turnovers.
The Falcons are 1.5-point spread favorites and the game total is 41 points.
Injury Report
Buccaneers: DL Mike Greene and WR Rakim Jarrett are out. CB Jamel Dean, LB Devin White, DB Josh Hayes, NT Vita Vea, and G Cody Mauch are questionable. LB SirVocea Dennis, LB Lavonte David, LB K.J. Britt, C Robert Hainsey, and OT Tristan Wirfs are probable.
Falcons: CB A.J. Terrell, DL LaCale London, OL Drew Dalman, LB Nate Landman, OT Kaleb McGary, DL David Onyemata, and CB Jeff Okudah are questionable. WR Mack Hollins and CB Mike Hughes are probable.
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The TB defense bends but doesn’t break in the red zone
Tampa Bay got back into the win column last week, taking care of business at home against Carolina. The Buccaneers held the Panthers to 282 total yards, including 149 passing yards (15-for-31 passing for 4.3 yards per pass). WR Mike Evans caught seven passes for 162 yards and a touchdown in the victory.
Tampa Bay scores 19.4 points per game (23rd) and averages 305.6 total yards (23rd), including 220.4 passing yards (19th) and 85.2 rushing yards (30th). It converts 40.3 percent of its third downs (15th) and finds the end zone on 47.0 percent of its red zone trips (27th).
The Bucs’ opponents average 20.4 points (10th) and 356.9 total yards (27th) per game, including 257.9 passing yards (28th) and 99.0 rushing yards (10th). The Tampa Bay defense has recorded 35 sacks and 10 interceptions this season. Their opponents convert 42.2 percent of their third-down attempts (27th) and score touchdowns on 40.0 percent of their red zone trips (4th).
Atlanta lets its defense do its talking
Atlanta squeaked out a win over New York in its last game, holding the Jets out of the end zone. The Falcons only needed 194 total yards to pick up the victory, as QB Desmond Ridder averaged just 3.5 yards per pass and the ground game managed just 2.6 yards per rush. Atlanta won the turnover battle 3-0 and kept NY in check on third down (2-for-15).
The Falcons average 18.8 points (24th) and 328.6 total yards (18th) per game, including 193.4 passing yards (22nd) and 135.2 rushing yards (6th). They convert 40.7 percent of their third downs (14th) and score touchdowns on 51.4 percent of their trips to the red zone (22nd).
Atlanta’s defense surrenders 20.0 points (7th) and 315.9 total yards (10th) per game, including 208.1 passing yards (11th) and 107.8 rushing yards (15th). They have 26 sacks and seven interceptions this season. The Falcons’ opponents convert 33.1 percent of their third-down attempts (2nd) and find the end zone on 37.1 percent of their red zone trips (1st).
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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In a matchup with significant playoff implications, I’m betting on the Falcons to win and cover. This game should be exciting for fans, particularly those who enjoy defensive football.
Tampa Bay’s inability to run the football will be the difference in this game. The Bucs rank 27th in Rush DVOA, 31st in Rush Success Rate, and 25th in Rush EPA, which puts their offense at a serious disadvantage when it comes to moving the chains. Mayfield can only do so much — even with an elite receiver like Evans at his disposal.
I’m confident the Falcons’ offense will get the job done, as Tampa Bay’s pass defense ranks 28th in yards allowed, and its run defense ranks 31st in Def Rush Success Rate. Ridder will work the football down the field well enough, and Robinson will gash TB for a few big runs to get the Bucs on the scoreboard. With two Buccaneers linebackers hurt or potentially out (Devin White and Lavonte David), there is an opportunity for the Falcons to solidify themselves as the leaders of the NFC South.
Prediction: Atlanta -1.5
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Full-Game Total Pick
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The under is too obvious of a play in this game, which makes it too risky for me, especially at just 41 total points.
Both offenses came up short when it mattered earlier this season, but I have confidence the Falcons will get a spark from Robinson after last week’s lackluster performance against the Jets. The Bucs’ defense is vulnerable against the run and has given up nearly 260 yards per game through the air. They’re also just 27th in opponent third down conversion rate and have a weak spot against the pass near the end zone.
The Bucs can score enough to keep pace for the majority of the game, too. Mayfield has the moxie to take the game over under these circumstances, willing the Bucs down the field. Evans, who is coming off another dominant performance, provides him with the luxury to let loose and play a “backyard football” style of play. It may take all he’s got, but I anticipate that being enough to push the low total over on Sunday afternoon.
Prediction: Over 41