Starting Nine: Most important player? Will Strider be ready? Burning questions for Braves in postseason

And now, they wait.

After a outstanding, typically inconceivable run at a fifth straight Nationwide League East title, the Atlanta Braves will probably be identical to the remainder of us, sitting and watching the Wild Card spherical play out.

It’s a much-needed break for the No. 2 seed, with three Braves within the high 9 video games performed — together with Matt Olson and Dansby Swanson, the one gamers to seem in all 162 video games — and rookie phenom Spencer Strider working his method again from an indirect harm.

However will 5 days off till the NL Division Sequence begins Oct. 11, primarily pumping the breaks after being in postseason mode for weeks in having to chase down the New York Mets, do extra hurt than good?

Relaxation vs. rust goes to be speaking level, and whereas it could actually gradual momentum it does profit the Braves in working to get the optimum model of their rotation prepared for the winner of the Central-champion St. Louis Cardinals and wild-card Philadelphia Phillies within the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup.

Because the Braves sit again and chill out, listed below are 9 burning questions as they put together for his or her repeat bid.

1. Who’s an important participant on the roster?

If pitching guidelines within the postseason, Max Fried looms massive after making the ascent of Ace Mountain final October when he silenced the Astros to ship the Braves’ championship, however the mere presence of Ronald Acuña Jr. after lacking final yr’s playoffs makes him the main target right here.

He isn’t the identical participant he was earlier than tearing his ACL in July 2021, although that doesn’t imply he gained’t ultimately get again there and that he hasn’t proven various flashes of it this season. His 114 wRC+ is 41 p.c under his common over the previous three seasons, and he hit 15 residence runs, 11 fewer than he had in his 2018 Rookie of the Yr marketing campaign, when he performed in simply eight extra video games than the 119 he suited up for this common season.

The knee might not be completely healed till he’s capable of relaxation this offseason, however it bodes nicely that after being within the designated hitter function for 12 video games earlier than Sept. 14, Acuña manned proper subject in 15 of the final 16.

After lacking final yr’s run to the championship, he figures to be a person on a mission this October, and as apparent as it’s, the Braves are merely higher when Acuña’s within the lineup. They went 83-36 when Acuña performed (a 112-win tempo) and had been under .500 (19-24) when he was out. In video games by which Acuña drove in a minimum of one run, they had been 25-9.

2. How will Dansby Swanson comply with up his profession yr?

Swanson set a franchise shortstop report and led the staff with 6.4 fWAR and had 116 wRC+, whereas slashing .277/.329/.448 and stuffing his stat line with 25 residence runs, 32 doubles, a triple, 96 RBI and 18 stolen bases.

It was a press release form of yr as he prepares to enter free company, however first, Swanson will attempt to again it up with constant degree of manufacturing that was lacking final postseason. Whereas he homered twice within the World Sequence, Swanson hit simply .224 with a .607 OPS throughout the playoffs.

Regardless of his nice total numbers, you needed to marvel if the workload was catching up with him, as Swanson had 87 wRC+ in August and 75 in September earlier than the ultimate weekend of the common season, after which he went and homered off the Mets’ Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt in consecutive days.

3. Will Spencer Strider be prepared for the NLDS?

Basic supervisor Alex Anthopoulos stated amid Tuesday’s East title celebration that rookie right-hander Spencer Strider is in “in play” for the NLDS after coping with an indirect harm and clarified extra throughout a Wednesday look on 92.9 The Sport, saying “the subsequent 4 days are going to be big for him.”

On the injured listing since Sept. 18, Strider threw once more Wednesday, however he’s solely executed so on flat floor. Getting him throwing off a mound is the actual check, however the indirect will probably be a storyline even when he does return as these accidents will be tough and simply aggravated.

Fried will little question begin the NLDS opener, and whereas Kyle Wright was the MLB wins chief with 21, Strider — who had a 2.67 ERA, .180 common towards and completed second solely to Fried with a 4.9 fWAR — might begin Sport 2 if he’s accessible, with Wright to comply with. With one off day within the LDs, the Braves may wish 4 starters, which might imply Charlie Morton if Strider’s within the combine or Bryce Elder or Jake Odorizzi if he’s not. They’ll nearly definitely want 4 ought to they advance to the League Championship Sequence, the place there’s — once more — just one off day over the seven-game collection.

Elder had a 1.75 ERA in his final 4 begins, whereas Odorizzi posted a 5.24 ERA because the Braves acquired him on the commerce deadline. Neither is good, and the additional time till Atlanta takes the sphere Oct. 11 will probably be vital in getting the NL Rookie of the Yr candidate Strider again within the fold.

4. If Ozzie Albies can’t go, what manufacturing will Braves get at second base?

Together with updating on Strider’s potential for the Division Sequence, Anthopoulos stated second baseman Ozzie Albies is much less prone to make his return with a fractured proper pinky finger that has saved him out since Sept. 17, halting his return from an 81-game absence to a mere two video games.

Albies wasn’t having the kind of season we’ve come to count on from him, with profession lows in wRC+ (93) and common (.247), however there’s nonetheless hope of getting two-time All-Star again ought to this flip right into a deeper postseason run. He’s been fitted with a slimmer forged and is doing fielding work pregame however has but to begin hitting.

Within the meantime, what degree of manufacturing are the Braves going to get at second? Vaughn Grissom cooled off significantly, hitting .200 with a .538 OPS and one extra-base hit over his final 12 video games, whereas Orlando Arcia appeared in every of the final 10 video games at second, hitting .250 with a .794 OPS.

Arcia is the extra prone to begin, with Grissom struggling vs. each of the Braves’ potential opponents (he hit .077 in 13 at-bats vs. the Cardinals and .167 in 18 towards the Phillies), and the veteran has been regular when referred to as upon after Grissom pale. He hit 9 p.c above league common during the last month after coming back from a 40-game absence with a hamstring harm.

5. Can Charlie Morton flush a curler coaster common season?

The standing of Strider figures to weigh closely on Morton’s function, but when he doesn’t issue into the LDS rotation, he’s sure to by the LCS and, doubtlessly, past.

Morton’s second half has included a 4.57 ERA, and 6.53 over his final 5 outings. On the season, he gave up 28 residence runs, 12 greater than final season. Morton additionally allowed 63 walks, one away from probably the most he’d yielded since 2011, and he hit 18 batters, second-most in his profession. That’s loads of visitors on the bases paths that’s Morton’s alone to manage.

The Cardinals did get to him for 4 runs in 5 innings on Aug. 27, and he had a 5.47 ERA in 5 begins vs. the Phillies, however Morton has been capable of dial issues up within the postseason previously. The 38-year-old has dialed it up within the postseason, together with a 2.51 ERA the previous three Octobers. That’s one thing the Braves are going to hope he can replicate after his lowest ERA+ (94) over a 162-game season since 2015.

6. Will the remade bullpen core reside as much as its predecessor?

The Night time Crew turned the stuff of Braves lore final fall, with the collective of Luke Jackson, Tyler Matzek, A.J. Minter, and Will Smith mixed for a 2.28 ERA over 47 1/3 innings. Solely Matzek and Minter stay, as Jackson is out for the season after present process Tommy John surgical procedure, and Smith was dealt to the Houston Astros, although Matzek hasn’t been the identical, dealing a shoulder harm and watching his ERA greater than double to three.50.

The core has been remade, and it has an opportunity to be nearly as good if not higher than final yr’s group.

Atlanta completed tied for second total with a 7.6 fWAR, third in strikeouts per 9 (10.17) and fourth in ERA (3.03) and boasts 5 relievers within the high 16 within the league in fWAR in Minter (fourth at 2.1), Raisel Iglesias (eighth at 1.6), Collin McHugh (twelfth at 1.4) and Kenley Jansen and rookie Dylan Lee, who’re tied for sixteenth at 1.1 fWAR.

A yr in the past, they solely had two relievers within the high 20 in fWAR and went into the postseason collectively 14th in fWAR and tenth in ERA.

That common season success doesn’t assure postseason domination, simply as final yr’s common season didn’t forecast what was to return, however this group is undeniably deeper.

Say Jansen has been extra bend than break within the second half — he went from a 2.50 FIP earlier than the All-Star break to 4.10 after it and he blew seven saves, together with three over his final 15 probabilities — however he nonetheless led the NL with 41 saves. If issues do get dicey, Iglesias was the NL’s greatest reliever after the commerce deadline, permitting a mere .205 wOBA and a 0.34 in 26 1/3 innings. In the meantime, Minter and McHugh are fifth (70) and sixth (69 1/3), respectively, within the NL in innings pitched and Jackson Stephens was twelfth in fewest homers per 9 (0.53).

7. Constructed to win within the postseason? These Braves meet the formulation

Final postseason, groups that outhomered their opponents went 20-2, and delivering the lengthy ball, and limiting them, are commonplace working procedures for these Braves.

They led the NL with 243 homers, second total to solely the New York Yankees’ 254. The workers allowed the fourth fewest homers with 148 — third amongst all postseason groups behind the Astros (134) and Cardinals (146) — with the starters rating sixth (95) and the relievers tied for fifth (53).

The power to bash proved key within the common season, with the Braves going 91-34 after they hit a minimum of one residence run and 59-11 after they went deep two or extra homers. In these video games by which they didn’t homer — which was the fewest of any staff within the majors — they had been 10-26.

In 152 video games by which the Braves held opponents to 2 or fewer homers the Braves had been 97-55, the third most wins in such video games. Solely the Dodgers with 110 wins, Astros with 104 and Mets with 98 had extra.

8. What’s the greatest NLDS matchup?

They went 4-3 vs. the Cardinals and 11-8 towards the Phillies, outscoring each throughout these regular-season collection, although St Louis did win two of three of their Aug. 26-28 collection, and the Phillies held a 19-16 edge in splitting their most up-to-date collection with the Braves on Aug. 22-5.

So, which is the perfect matchup?

The Cardinals had the third most wins within the NL after the All-Star break behind the Dodgers and Braves. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt had been Nos. 2 and three, respectively within the NL in fWAR, and there’s the fairytale aspect of Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina’s swan track that its personal impediment.

The rotation was bolstered by the commerce deadline acquisitions of Jose Quintana (2.01 ERA) and Jordan Montgomery (3.11), and a bullpen anchored by Ryan Helsley (1.25 ERA) simply returned Jordan Hicks, who proceeded to the touch 100 mph eight instances in his return from the injured listing Wednesday.

The Phillies, although, have the higher pitching workers. Their starters had been higher on the season (an NL-best 17.5 fWAR to 10.5), higher within the second half (7.6 to six.7) and higher since St. Louis obtained these reinforcements at deadline (6.9 to five.9). The bullpen isn’t the issue it was, rating fifth within the NL (tied for fourth at 2.6). Plus, their constructed across the lengthy ball behind Kyle Schwarber — the NL chief with 46 homers — as one in all three Phillies with 20 or extra homers.

All that being stated, the Cardinals are sizzling on the proper time, one thing the Braves have been all too acquainted with on this stage. Atlanta would reasonably have the Phillies — the enemy you already know, an all that — however they’re doubtless dealing with St. Louis.

9. Greatest key to a repeat is …

Kind Sept. 1-29, when Swanson, Matt Olson and Austin Riley had been all within the midst of their worst months of the season, the Braves had been tenth in fWAR and tenth in runs. Collectively, throughout the majors in these Nos. 2-4 spots all of them largely man within the lineup, Atlanta ranked twenty ninth in wRC+ at a mere 68 wRC+. From Opening Day by August, they helped the Braves rank fifth (129)

Now, Olson ended his season on an absolute tear, homering six instances in his final 9 video games in incomes the ultimate NL Participant of the Week honors. He got here up massive when it mattered most, as did Swanson, who had a 1.164 OPS with three homers within the final six video games. Riley didn’t fairly as sturdy however homered off Jacob deGrom to kickstart that key collection vs. the New York Mets and ended September above league common (101 wRC+).

All three might not be sizzling, and all three might not be chilly, however it’s laborious to think about the Braves making an actual problem to equaling the Yankees in 2000 because the final staff to repeat as World Sequence champions with out this a part of the order creating some magical moments.