Here are five buy-low candidates the Atlanta Braves should add

Groups are all the time on the lookout for diamonds within the tough. Guys off the waiver wire and free brokers who’re coming off poor seasons who may turn out to be the following Tyler Matzek or Eric O’Flaherty. Alex Anthopoulos has already shortly moved on potential buy-low candidates in Sam Hilliard and Nick Anderson. However they actually gained’t be the final. Let’s have a look at the buy-low candidates the Atlanta Braves ought to add.

The buy-low candidates the Atlanta Braves ought to add

Whereas there are buy-low candidates for every place, I’m solely what the Braves want and what a buy-low candidate can fulfill for the group. This implies I gained’t be infielders (we’re not changing Dansby with a man on the waiver wire), catchers, and beginning pitching (we have now been overlaying SP choices in free company already and the Braves have already got lots of inner depth there).

This leaves outfielders and relievers. Whereas the Braves have a mixed $26 million tied as much as Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario, it wouldn’t be shocking if the Braves tried to seek out methods to maneuver both or each gamers as left area was a serious weak point for the group in 2022. Moreover, whereas the bullpen was really a power for the group this previous season, relievers are all the time wanted. As we noticed when the Night time Shift was decreased to A.J. Minter this previous season, they’re all the time a unstable commodity.

The gamers beneath are guys who had poor 2022 seasons, however had sure areas of their recreation that confirmed that they have been both getting unfortunate, may enhance with sure changes, or each.

Franmil Reyes

Franmil Reyes is one season faraway from a 126 wRC+ marketing campaign, however 2022 was a depressing season for the 26-year-old as he slashed .221/.273/.365 (80 wRC+) between the Guardians and Cubs. Along with his lack of protection, he managed a -1.1 fWAR in 118 video games. This was worse than Marcell Ozuna (-0.6 fWAR) and equal to Eddie Rosario.

However Reyes had an odd season by a number of. By common exit velocity, max exit velocity, HardHit%, and barrels, he was elite whereas sitting in not less than the 79th percentile in all of those classes. He was additionally above-average in chase fee within the 57th percentile. These percentiles have been kind of consistent with his profession averages.

However by virtually all different metrics, together with BB%, xwOBA, xSLG, and xBA, he was nicely beneath common.  In actual fact, he overperformed his xBA and his xSLG was about even along with his SLG. This was not a participant who was getting unfortunate, so what was occurring?

First, he struck out lots. This was not irregular. Reyes has all the time whiffed lots, by no means ending higher than the underside sixth percentile. He struck out 33.2% in 2022, but it surely was just one.2 factors larger than in 2021. Nonetheless, in earlier seasons, Reyes was in a position to masks his Ok% by strolling lots.

In 2021, the outfielder was within the fifty fifth percentile in BB%. In 2022, it fell into the twenty fourth percentile. Except for the anticipated metrics, that is the largest drop for Reyes from 2021 to 2022.

However this drop is definitely the rationale I feel the Braves ought to signal the 6’5 slugger. Regardless of an enormous drop in walks, he didn’t actually change his strategy. He nonetheless completed the season with a barely above-average chase fee. In actual fact, it was really a greater fee than in 2019 when he walked 8.6% of the time, and in 2020, when he walked 10% of the time.

The most important distinction between this yr and former years is that he merely noticed barely fewer pitches out of the zone (a two-point lower this yr), and he made much less contact when he did chase (a 13-point drop). This implies fewer fouls in two-strike counts.

If Reyes is ready to return these again to 2021 ranges, there’s a good likelihood he may return to being a 120ish wRC+ participant. With the DH as nicely, there’s a great likelihood the Braves would hardly need to play him within the outfield if they will transfer Ozuna.

Austin Davis

The definition of a scrap heap participant, Austin Davis is your run-of-the-mill left-handed reliever who bounces from group to group just because he’s left-handed. Nonetheless, there are some things I like about this one.

Davis cut up 2022 between Boston and Minnesota. In 56 innings, he had a 5.79 ERA and a extra digestible, however not spectacular 4.02 FIP. He’s at present a free agent after being launched by Minnesota in September.

Whereas his 12.5 BB% is regarding, there have been a number of issues Davis did nicely, primarily when it got here to contact. The southpaw was within the 89th percentile in Common Exit Velocity and the ninety fifth Percentile in HardHit%. Davis additionally had first rate percentiles for Ok%, Whiff%, and xSLG.

Davis may profit from a change in pitch choice. His four-seamer, which he threw 43.2% of the time, was hammered final season with hitters managing a .453 SLG and a virtually an identical .456 xSLG.

Nonetheless, he had far more success along with his slider, which he used 38.3% of the time, because it restricted hitters to a .299 SLG and a .315 xSLG. His changeup, regardless of poor outputs (a .300 BA and .350 SLG), had higher anticipated stats (.218 xBA and .266 xSLG). It additionally generated much more whiffs on a fee foundation at 38.5%, 12 factors larger than his slider and 14 factors larger than his fastball.

The soon-to-be 30 yr outdated has but to have any success within the main leagues, however its straightforward to ascertain him being a non-roster invitee who may break camp with the group and acts as a strong center reliever.

James Norwood

One other scrap heap reliever, this time a righty. Norwood pitched 20 video games in 2022 with the Phillies and was hammered, permitting 16 earned runs in simply 17.1 innings. Nonetheless, his 3.63 FIP was far decrease than his 8.31 ERA.

Norwood additionally racked up the strikeouts, placing out 22 of the 85 batters he confronted (25.8% Ok fee). Batters additionally outperformed anticipated outputs towards Norwood, as nicely. Each in AVG and SLG.  Regardless of having hitters having a .316 AVG and .434 SLG, anticipated numbers have been far kinder, at .256 xSLG and .401 SLG.

The factor I like about Norwood probably the most, nonetheless, is his fastball velocity. His common fastball velocity of 96.6 positioned him within the ninetieth percentile within the majors final season. Moreover, whereas his fastball spin left lots to be desired, he was within the sixty fourth percentile in extension.

Excessive-velocity fastball guys come a dime a dozen, however Norwood, like Davis, could possibly be price a chance on and can be nice to have as depth in Gwinnett if he doesn’t break camp with the group after Spring Coaching.

Joey Gallo

Gallo’s 2022 was disastrous for him, even after being traded to Los Angeles. Between New York and L.A, he completed the season with simply 0.6 fWAR, had an 85 wRC+, and had a adverse DEF for the primary time since he was a 3rd baseman. However there have been nonetheless a couple of issues that have been salvageable from the season for the participant who greatest exemplifies the three-true-outcome strategy.

His 13.7 stroll fee was solely barely decrease than his profession common of 14.8%. He nonetheless hit the ball onerous (when he did make contact), ending within the 94% in HardHit and 98% in barrel proportion. Regardless of all of the onerous contact, nonetheless, he solely barely underperformed his xBA and xSLG.

The most important change is the five-point enhance in strikeouts. Nonetheless, neither his zone contact nor his whiff matched this five-point enhance. He swung extra on pitches within the zone (70.1% this yr in comparison with 68.4% in 2021), however his contact fee barely modified (68.4% this yr vs. 68.6% in 2021). He additionally made contact extra on pitches outdoors the zone. Merely put, Gallo’s change in strategy doesn’t coincide with such an excellent enhance in strikeouts.

Gallo did chase far more this previous season than in earlier seasons, leaping practically 9 proportion factors in 2022 from 2021. This coincided with a seven-point bounce in his general swing fee. Gallo walks at an elite stage, however he’s a couple of non-swings away from being on the most elite stage.

On the defensive aspect, Gallo’s sudden OAA drop is intriguing to me. He was within the 82nd percentile in outfield bounce, however within the twentieth percentile in OAA. In 2021, he was within the 84th percentile in outfield bounce and within the ninetieth percentile in OAA. Whereas Gallo’s dash velocity dropped from the 59th percentile to the forty sixth, he solely misplaced 0.3 ft/sec, which was really equal to his 2020.

When you appeared nearer, nonetheless, a lot of his defensive troubles got here in a drop in success fee when he was with New York (75% in comparison with 87% with L.A.) As a Dodger, he was price two OAA. His adverse defensive worth this previous season could possibly be extra of an outlier than a sign of his future.

If Gallo can return to 2021 ranges of play, the Braves may have the very best outfield in all of baseball.

Jason Heyward

This one is closely influenced by nostalgia, however not absolutely. Whereas Jason Heyward has been a really poor hitter the previous two seasons and he hasn’t had a wRC+ above 100 (outdoors 2020’s 131) since he was a St. Louis Cardinal, he nonetheless has a couple of issues on his aspect.

For starters, he’s nonetheless an above-average defender within the outfield. In simply 348.1 innings, he was price one OAA in 2022 and three OAA throughout 784 innings in 2021. If the Braves add one thing like Franmil Reyes, or in the event that they follow Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna, they’re going to wish a defensive alternative.

Heyward can also nonetheless hit the ball onerous, although his common EV nonetheless has lots to be desired. He maxed out at 111.1 MPH, which was within the 73rd percentile final season. In 2021, he maxed out at 115.3 MPH. He hasn’t been hitting the ball onerous persistently sufficient, however there’s nonetheless some thump in there.

The previous Braves standout is a groundball-heavy participant, which sadly has harm him for years now, however with the shift going away, he’s one more lefty who will most likely profit. Whereas nonetheless unimpressive, it’s vital to notice he did underperform his xSLG by 45 factors (.322 xSLG vs .277 SLG).

Moreover, whereas the lefty’s stroll fee dropped to a career-low 7.3% and his O-Swing was a career-high 30.7%, he solely had 151 PAs. If he’s in a position to return his chase fee to round 2019 ranges, he’d have a BB% well-above league common.

This isn’t somebody will come again and bounce again to his 2013 self nor must be be an on a regular basis participant. Nonetheless, I nonetheless suppose it’s believable that he generally is a barely below-average hitter who gives reliable protection off the bench and can seemingly come low cost. He’s nonetheless on the Cubs roster, however the group introduced he gained’t return for 2023, that means that if the group does launch him, the Braves may theoretically signal him on a budget.