Giants-Braves Series Preview

So, Alex Anthopoulos spent most of this offseason being lauded for his skill in developing Atlanta’s roster and foresight in locking up key pieces. He’d been anointed a dynasty builder with but one World Series under his belt, and it’d be hard to argue against the notion; the assemblage of young talent, controlled by ownership-friendly long-term deals created a formidable opponent. They’ve disappointed a bit this year, but they’re still a tough team.

That’s the thing with plans. Sometimes, they go poof. The San Francisco Giants made a lot of plans this offseason and then even once the season starter — plans within plans! — and all of them have evaporated before their eyes. There was no plan after Spencer Bivens the other day and he surprised us all with a stunning 5 inning performance against the Dodgers. As spectators and weirdos in the cheap seats/blogs, we’re afforded the luxury of simply wondering, “Now what?” and having no wrong answer because our thoughts on the subject have no bearing on reality — but the team has to answer the question.

Atlanta is not the best team in the NL East and they’ve suffered two crucial injuries — Ronald Acuna Jr. & Spencer Strider — that virtually guarantees they’ll be a Wild Card team this season; but, it’s still baseball, and it’s plausible that anything can happen, particularly where talent is concerned. The Phillies just lost Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, and while they might not be out for an extended period, the lead in the East is 8 games; Atlanta has been white hot at home (26-14 on the season; 8-3 in June) and this series against the Giants kicks off a 6-game homestand where the concluding trio will be against Philadelphia.

Why should this concern the Giants? Well, after ending April 19-9, Atlanta has gone just 27-27, but they’ve mostly had the problem the Giants have had of doing poorly on the road (20-22 on the season; 6-10 in June). The Wild Card is setup so that the hottest teams win it in the final month or so, but what about those teams that have cruised to a Wild Card spot? Could they get hot enough that the power of belief and the collapse of the team ahead of them gives them a division instead? The Giants could be facing a team on the runway about to takeoff.

That it comes after probably the most exciting series of this season (so far) certainly sets up a situation where the Giants don’t carry over any of that amazing moment. They haven’t won a season series against Atlanta since 2016, and they’re 8-12 at Truist Park since it opened in 2017. But, there’s always reason for optimism. The Giants will be throwing their very best starters out there. The bullpen had the benefit of a legitimate off day on Monday, and hitting in Georgia in July is going to help even the Giants’ bats — BUT!

Waaaaaait a second. Atlanta’s team line of .243/.308/.401 registers as a 100 wRC+ — exactly league average. The Giants’ .247/.317/.391 is five percent better than league average (105 wRC+). They’re… a better hitting team? That’s a surprise. Atlanta has a couple of offensive surprises going for them, but the loss of Acuna Jr. has really hurt them this season, along with a couple of cratering performances.

Atlanta wins it all back with their pitching, though. Their team ERA is not only the fourth-best team ERA in MLB (3rd in the NL), it’s literally a full run better than the Giants (4.50). The FIP matchup is half as stark: Atlanta’s team FIP is 3.50 compared to the Giants’ 3.92. Despite pitching in a bandbox, they’ve allowed the second-lowest HR/9 (0.86), behind only the Phillies (0.80). And even without Spencer Strider, their team K/9 of 9.11 is #1 in the NL (#2 in MLB). They’re also pretty good at getting groundballs (45.7% – 3rd in MLB; Giants #1 – 49.4%).

This kicks off a 6-game road trip and a 12-game stretch before the All-Star break where the Giants’ mettle will be tested. This is probably the toughest way to have started such a trip outside of maybe Dodger Stadium, Yankee Stadium, or Camden Park; but remember, even if the Giants go 0-12, they’ll still be in the Wild Card race.

Series details

Who: San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Where: Truist Park, “Atlanta,” Georgia
When: Tuesday (4:20pm PT), Wednesday (4:20pm PT), Thursday (4:20pm PT)
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcast (Thursday)

Projected starters
Tuesday: Hayden Birdsong vs. Reynaldo Lopez
Wednesday: Jordan Hicks vs. Chris Sale
Thursday: Logan Webb vs. Charlie Morton

Where they stand
Braves, 46-36 (4th in NLC, +3.5 WC), 354 RS / 301 RA | Last 10 games: 5-5
Giants, 41-44 (4th in NLW, -3.0 WC), 380 RS / 409 RA | Last 10 games: 5-5

Braves to watch

Adam Duvall: It looks like the tattered rags of a security blanket this former Giant has provided Atlanta over the years has finally tattered too far. His .161/.244/.291 line is dreadful and in the second half of June (14 games; 50 PA) he was even worse: .146/.180/.167 with 20 strikeouts against just 2 walks. The swing and miss and low walk totals have always been a part of his game, but he had just two extra base hits in ALL of June (a homer and double). He seems more likely to be DFA’d ahead of this series rather than play in it, but if he does, you’d hate to see him finally flash some signs of life against his original team. In 42 career games, he’s hit 11 home runs and has an .837 OPS.

Chris Sale: This was a wild trade made in the offseason that most people quickly came around on because of Atlanta’s largesse. Basically, the team’s finances and talent depth were viewed as being in such good shape that they could afford to absorb the potential downside of adding the ornery Sale to the mix. He’d finally returned to make 20 starts for the Red Sox last season after years of health issues. This season, he’s already 15 starts in and shows a lot of the stuff that made him a perennial Cy Young candidate from 2012-2018. He’s struck out 118 in 93.2 IP (11.3 K/9) and walking fewer (1.6 BB/9) than his career average (2.1). The home runs haven’t been much of an issue either — just 7 allowed this year. The Giants do have the best wRC+ against left-handed pitching (121; 5th in MLB).

Reynaldo Lopez & Marcell Ozuna: I bring these two up not because I want to spotlight a domestic abuser in Ozuna, but because I want to bring up the comparisons to the Giants. Lopez is a closer being converted into a starter a la Jordan Hicks. He’s also basically a 5 inning guy, but overall, having a better season (2.2 fWAR vs. Hicks’ 0.6). Meanwhile, Ozuna as Atlanta’s DH has been one of the best hitters in the sport, and as a contrast to the Giants’ full-time DH and former Brave, Jorge Soler, it will probably not look equal at all and serve to remind that the Giants are doing “the poor man’s” version of what successful teams do.

Giants to watch

Michael Conforto: I like the former Met against the former division rival in a hitter-friendly park. Like Adam Duvall, he’s been largely bad in June, slashing .167/.241/.333 over his most recent 54 PA. But! If you want to really be a homer, and you should, since this is a Giants fan blog: he’s 6-for-his-last-19 with 2 doubles, a triple, and a homer. So… maybe he’s getting hot? That’d be nice.

Giants starting pitchers: It’s not just that the bullpen has been strained, it’s that these are the three best pitchers on staff at the moment. You will forgive Hayden Birdsong if he gets shelled in just his second major league start by a veteran lineup and Hicks may very well be out of gas, but Logan Webb pitching a gem on the road would sure serve as a proof of concept that the Giants are a legitimate, you know, baseball team.

Jorge Soler: His career line in Atlanta’s new home: .294/.413/.532 with 9 home runs in 173 career plate appearances. He had an .845 OPS in 109 June plate appearances so there’s legal grounds for declaring that he’s on a hot streak. Let’s watch and see if that continues.

Prediction time