From deadline dilemma to World Series champs? Here’s who could be this trade season’s Atlanta Braves

The 2021 Atlanta Braves have been hardly a stunning World Collection winner, though with an 88-73 file within the common season, they weren’t a powerhouse staff within the vein of latest champions just like the 2016 Cubs, 2017 Astros, 2018 Purple Sox or 2020 Dodgers. In any case, the Braves had reached the 2020 NLCS and made the playoffs in 2018 and 2019.

What is stunning is what occurred given the place the Braves stood on July 30. After dropping to the Brewers that evening they have been 51-54 and hadn’t spent a single day over .500. They have been, nevertheless, solely 5 video games behind the Mets within the Nationwide League East, so Alex Anthopoulos determined to behave. After buying and selling for Joc Pederson a pair weeks earlier to interchange the injured Ronald Acuna Jr., Anthopoulos added three extra outfielders on July 30, buying Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario.

All 4 contributed down the stretch, a struggling bullpen all of the sudden acquired sizzling, the Mets collapsed, Rosario gained NLCS MVP honors and Soler captured the World Collection MVP trophy — and the Braves have been champs for the primary time since 1995.

So the query for 2022: Who could be this yr’s Braves? Which staff can swing massive like Anthopoulos did final yr and make a World Collection run?

There are a couple of candidates that we’ll get to, however the clear favourite to tug it off is one other NL East membership, the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are a staff that hasn’t made the postseason since 2011 (consider it or not, the second-longest playoff drought behind the Mariners), a third-place staff at present wanting up on the Mets and Braves — however a staff with clear strengths and apparent downside locations to improve. Dave Dombrowski has been an aggressive normal supervisor all through his profession and this can be a staff in absolute win-now mode. No, they most likely will not get sizzling sufficient to catch the Mets and win the division, however they’ll win a wild card and get sizzling in October.

Here is how:

1. Following the blueprint of the Braves, the Phillies do not should swing for the fences. The Braves did not commerce for any of the most important names on final yr’s commerce market, however improved across the edges. That is what the Phillies must do — and, actually, that is their solely lifelike possibility until they’re prepared to commerce their prime two prospects, pitchers Andrew Painter and Mick Abel. They don’t seem to be going to be in on Juan Soto.

2. They have already got Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, a pair actually able to emulating the run Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer went on in carrying the Nationals to the 2019 title after the Nats squeezed into the postseason as a wild card. The distinction: That Nationals staff had a robust No. 3 starter in Patrick Corbin, whereas Kyle Gibson is extra like Anibal Sanchez, Washington’s No. 4 starter that yr. So the Phillies want one other beginning pitcher. In the event that they need to suppose massive, how about Detroit’s Tarik Skubal? Given his years of staff management (by 2026), you are most likely coughing up Painter or Abel, or a minimum of catcher Logan O’Hoppe, however the Phillies would get the No. 3 starter who has much more upside sooner or later. Leases may embrace Martin Perez (though the Rangers appear reluctant to deal him), Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi, Pittsburgh’s Jose Quintana or perhaps even San Francisco’s Carlos Rodon, who has an opt-out clause and could also be obtainable given the Giants’ latest hunch.

3. Enhance the protection with Kansas Metropolis’s Michael Taylor to play heart area. Taylor (+8 defensive runs saved) is an improve on Odubel Herrera (minus-2 DRS) within the area and on the plate. He is signed by 2023, so the Royals will not give him away, however he will not price a premium prospect. Till Bryce Harper returns, Herrera may slide to a nook spot to permit Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos to DH — so that you’re actually upgrading on protection at two spots.

4. Add some relievers. David Robertson is the plain candidate, a veteran who can fill the eighth- or ninth-inning position. Just like the Braves final yr, nevertheless, they’re going to want among the guys already right here to step up. It is potential; A.J. Minter was truly in Triple-A on July 30 final season, however got here again, discovered the strike zone and was a key reliever for the Braves within the playoffs.

5. And maybe most significantly … get Harper wholesome. Even higher, hope Castellanos finds his 2021 stroke.

Just like the Braves, the Phillies have a championship-caliber core, a minimum of if Harper and Castellanos are within the lineup and hitting. Add a couple of upgrades and something can occur in October.

The Phillies’ playoff odds heading into Friday’s video games, in line with FanGraphs, have been 51.0%, with a 1.9% likelihood to win the World Collection. So 50-50 to a minimum of make it and — given the gauntlet of working by the division winners within the subsequent two rounds after which a troublesome AL opponent within the World Collection — slim to none to win all of it. However look the place the Braves have been a yr in the past: Simply 11.9% to even make the playoffs and 0.8% to win the World Collection.

And listed below are a couple of extra groups who may additionally shock with some commerce deadline strikes:

Chicago White Sox

Playoff odds: 54.7% (FanGraphs nonetheless considers them the favorites to win the division)

World Collection: 1.6%

The White Sox aren’t going to commerce Lucas Giolito or Lance Lynn, in order that’s an indication that the individuals who make these choices nonetheless consider on this membership — and they need to. The White Sox are proper there within the AL Central race regardless of their disappointing file, with 9 video games left towards the Twins and 6 Guardians to make up floor. Their subsequent 16 video games are towards the A’s, Royals, Rangers, Royals once more, and Tigers, so now’s the time to go on a 13-3 run and switch their season round.

What do they want? An influence bat, as Luis Robert leads the staff with simply 12 residence runs. They do not have the prospects to amass Juan Soto, so the next-best hitters obtainable are Josh Bell and Willson Contreras, though in both case that will imply extra Andrew Vaughn within the outfield. Principally, nevertheless, the White Sox simply want Giolito, Lynn and Yoan Moncada to search out their 2021 kind and Eloy Jimenez to begin doing one thing.

Boston Purple Sox

Playoff odds: 25.6%

World Collection: 0.6%

The Purple Sox have been so dangerous in July it is tough to ascertain a sudden turnaround, regardless of the strikes they could make. However they did inform Xander Bogaerts, who has an opt-out clause after the season, that they won’t be buying and selling him, in order that’s maybe an indication that they are not prepared to punt the season — merely a sign that they need to re-sign Bogaerts, however may nonetheless find yourself buying and selling Nathan Eovaldi, J.D. Martinez, Christian Vazquez, Enrique Hernandez, Wealthy Hill or Michael Wacha, all of whom are heading into free company. Their apparent downside: 35 of their remaining 61 video games are towards AL East opponents, they usually’re 12-29 inside the division.

So how do you get the Purple Sox into October, not to mention profitable all of it? Effectively, if they do not get wholesome, it will not matter. Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Hernandez, Hill, Wacha and Chris Sale are all on the IL, however Devers, Story, Hill and Wacha are near returning. Garrett Whitlock has returned to the bullpen to assist what has been a shaky group. They clearly want extra offense from Alex Verdugo (potential) and Bobby Dalbec (do not wager on it). The Purple Sox are unlikely to make any vital exterior acquisitions, and Sale’s return from a fractured finger stays in “we hope he is again earlier than the season ends” mode. In different phrases: It is not wanting good right here.

Seattle Mariners

Playoff odds: 74.1%

World Collection: 1.6%

The Mariners have performed themselves into an important likelihood to finish their world-famous playoff drought, which matches all of the manner again to 2001, they usually determined to go by massive by buying and selling for Luis Castillo within the largest deal of this deadline thus far. In the event that they get by their subsequent 12 video games — their last two of the season towards the Astros, six towards the Yankees and 4 towards the Angels — with out an excessive amount of injury, then the schedule turns into the softest within the majors after that.

However it’s additionally clear they do not have the horses to compete towards the Astros and Yankees in playoff baseball — Houston’s pitching workers has throttled the mediocre Seattle offense in head-to-head play for the reason that All-Star break. Rookie George Kirby is at 96 innings and could also be nearing his innings restrict as properly after pitching simply 67 innings within the minors final season. So to make any playoff run, they should go improve their roster.

On offense, they might merely hope that Mitch Haniger, out since April and at last rehabbing within the minors, will present sufficient of a elevate, however they may actually use one other bat moreover him. Perhaps somebody like Ian Happ of the Cubs (who has one other yr of management), Brandon Drury of the Reds (in the event that they suppose he can play second base), Bell or Trey Mancini to DH (in the event that they’re prepared to maneuver Carlos Santana to the bench).

Seattle’s secret ingredient to a possible playoff run although: A deep bullpen. They’re seventh within the majors in bullpen ERA, however after scuffling in April and dumping some guys, they have been in excessive gear since Could 25, with a 2.59 ERA, greatest within the majors in that span (heading into Friday). Scott Servais used both Paul Sewald or Diego Castillo because the nearer, Erik Swanson has emerged as a key setup man, and rookies Andres Munoz and Penn Murfee have mixed for 102 strikeouts and 17 walks in 82.2 innings. Because the Braves confirmed final yr, you may principally go five-and-dive together with your starters within the postseason you probably have a deep bullpen to hold a heavy workload.

San Francisco Giants

Playoff odds: 24.4%

World Collection: 0.9%

That seven-game dropping streak popping out of the All-Star break — 4 in L.A. and three in Arizona — was a killer, because the Giants noticed their playoff odds drop from 52% to lower than half that. The entrance workplace is in a troublesome place: It stays an outdated, veteran roster, however they’ve additionally constructed the very best farm system they’ve had in yr, headlined by shortstop Marco Luciano and pitcher Kyle Harrison. Certainly, that might half the Giants within the working for Soto — they actually want a lineup anchor who is not 30-something years outdated.

In order that’s the large play: Commerce for Soto, and whilst you’re doing that, go after Frankie Montas. Would you need to face the Giants in a brief collection and should beat Logan Webb, Rodon and Montas? However, the Giants may say, “Hey, we’re not even in a playoff place proper now, we are the oldest staff within the league, we simply haven’t got the magic of 2021, there is not any manner we’re beating the Brewers and Dodgers and the Mets within the playoffs, so let’s examine what we will get for a few of these guys.” The one hitch there may be Rodon is the one man who has a lot commerce worth — Joc Pederson is a free agent, however he is not going to convey a lot in return. Frankly, coming off final yr’s 107-win season, they might as properly roll the cube and attempt to win.

In any case, is not that the target?