Atlanta, GA
Cardinals march to Atlanta for a 3-game series – A Series Preview
Well folks. We got a problem. We got a road problem. The Cardinals have won one game on the road this season. It is April 21st. Now, do I think this is probably a weird fluky quirk that can happen in baseball more than the Cardinals actually being a terrible road team? Yeah. Will I bet any money that the Cardinals will win a road game? Uh no. (I don’t bet, but pretending I did)
So bad news: we’re still on the road. Other bad news. You may have heard about the Braves bad start to the season. That is true. But they are now coming off a sweep. When you play an opponent can be as important as how good the opponent is. Whatever weird funk the Braves were in, they may be out of it. You should probably sell your stock of the Braves if they don’t win this series though. 1-9 road team beats you at home, ignoring context, is not the kind of team who makes the playoffs.
So you heard it here first. This is basically an elimination series for the Braves. We can end the Braves’ playoff chances in this series.
What they lost
They lost Jorge Soler and his bat, who they probably don’t miss paying, but probably do miss the bat. They traded two years of him for Griffin Canning, who they later nontendered, hence why we just faced Canning on a different team. It was purely a money-saving move, which given their start to the season, I’m sure Braves fans aren’t thrilled about that.
They also lost AJ Minter when he reached free agency. Who is off to an absolutely dominant start over in New York. I’m sure fans aren’t thrilled about that either. They lost Max Fried to free agency as well, who signed with the Yankees. He got quite a bit of money, I think they are more understanding of this one. They lost Charlie Morton, which looks like they jumped ship at the right time on that one.
They lost both Whit Merrifield and Adam Duvall. Duvall was… really bad last year. Neither player is signed to any team. They lost old friend John Brebbia, who was there very briefly. And they declined a club option on Luke Jackson who responded by signing with the Rangers.
What they added
Current everyday shortstop Nick Allen was an offseason trade. He was not very good in Oakland. He does have a .387 BABIP right now, so things are working so far. They signed Bryan de la Cruz, who was recently sent down to the minors after he had a 30 wRC+ in his first 16 games.
They signed Jurickson Profar to a three-year deal, which was immediately put on hold when he was suspended for 80 games this season. Current everyday leadoff hitter Alex Verdugo was a March signing. Yes, Alex Verdugo who signed a minor league deal with an MLB option, is the current leadoff hitter of the Atlanta Braves. In 621 PAs last season, he had a .291 OBP. It’s things like this that make me think this might actually be a bad team.
They made a few bullpen additions as well. Enyel De Los Santos was acquired in a trade from the White Sox. He’s been really good. They also traded for Rafael Montero a week into the season. He has gotten good results (2.25 ERA), but not actually been good (5 Ks to 5 BBs). They also purchased Scott Blewett – very unfortunate name for a reliever. Who is already on his third team of the season and what’s especially weird is he’s been very good this year.
What’s the same
He’s still on the team, but Ronald Acuna Jr is hurt right now. The Braves core is still very much here: Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II. They exercised Marcell Ozuna’s club option. He’s off to a blazing start. Jared Kelenic is still not very good. Orlando Arcia has been relegated to the bench for Nick Allen. He has a 43 wRC+ on the season.
Raisel Iglesias is still closing games for them. He’s been a mixed bag so far. He’s already allowed three homers, which also happen to be the only earned runs he has. Aaron Bummer and Dylan Lee are their two lefties still. Wow they’ve got a Bummer and a Blewett in their bullpen. All that’s missing is a Homer Bailey.
Monday – 6:15 PM
Erick Fedde (3.43 ERA/4.88 FIP/5.51 xFIP) vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (2.55 ERA/3.55 FIP/3.03 xFIP)
Max Fried leaves. Schwellenbach replaces him. Not exactly. They were both on the team last season. Metaphorically speaking though, they replaced one homegrown pitcher for another. Interestingly, Schwellenbach is arguably a better pitcher than last year, but in a different way. He has less strikeouts and more walks, but a lot more groundballs (54.5 GB%).
I don’t know what’s more amazing. How badly Erick Fedde has pitched so far or how the hell his ERA is almost entirely just one bad start. He has been working on a tight rope this season, and I guess the Cardinals are lucky his ERA isn’t worse. Those starts are banked in, so hopefully he actually starts pitching well before it catches up with him.
Tuesday – 6:15 PM
Andre Pallante (3.22 ERA/4.37 FIP/3.40 xFIP) vs. Spencer Strider (3.60 ERA/4.82 FIP/4.55 xFIP)
Strider has only made one start this year and it was okay, but just about everything was hit in the air and he didn’t strike out as much as a typical Strider start. So we may not be getting classic Strider. He’s still in the adjusting to life after Tommy John phase, which can be a bit of a rough going for some pitchers in their first year back. Or that was a slight hiccup, and Strider absolutely dominates.
This might be a good lineup for Pallante. The Braves lineup features four lefties and a switch hitter. Albies is a significantly worse hitter against right-handed pitchers in his career. Though with the exception of Nick Allen, every right-handed batter he faces is a tough one.
Wednesday – 11:15 AM
Miles Mikolas (7.64 ERA/2.97 FIP/5.11 xFIP) vs. Bryce Elder (7.20 ERA/7.02 FIP/4.34 xFIP)
Oh Mikolas is the closer of this series? Okay yeah Braves it is a very, very bad sign for your season if you don’t win this series. There’s a moment in a season when you’re supposed to be good team turns out bad where you have an Oh Sh*t moment. If you already haven’t had that moment, this series would probably do that to Braves fans. God help them if the Cardinals actually sweep.
Elder is weirdly a heavy groundball pitcher who isn’t striking anyone out. As you can see, keeping the ball on the ground is very much not helping him keep the ball out of the stands. He has allowed 5 homers in 3 games. He’s made three starts and none of them have been particularly good. Your move Cardinals!
Atlanta Hawks (46-36, sixth in the Eastern Conference) vs. New York Knicks (53-29, third in the Eastern Conference)
New York; Monday, 8 p.m. EDT
LINE: Knicks -5.5; over/under is 216.5
EASTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND: Knicks lead series 1-0
BOTTOM LINE: The New York Knicks host the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference first round with a 1-0 lead in the series. The Knicks won the last matchup 113-102 on Saturday, led by 28 points from Jalen Brunson. CJ McCollum led the Hawks with 26.
The Knicks are 35-17 in Eastern Conference games. New York has a 9-4 record in one-possession games.
The Hawks are 27-25 in Eastern Conference play. Atlanta is third in the league scoring 18.1 fast break points per game. McCollum leads the Hawks averaging 5.0.
The Knicks are shooting 47.8% from the field this season, 0.4 percentage points higher than the 47.4% the Hawks allow to opponents. The Hawks are shooting 47.4% from the field, 1.4% higher than the 46.0% the Knicks’ opponents have shot this season.
TOP PERFORMERS: Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 20.1 points and 11.9 rebounds for the Knicks. Brunson is averaging 19.9 points over the last 10 games.
Dyson Daniels is scoring 11.9 points per game and averaging 6.8 rebounds for the Hawks. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is averaging 21.3 points and 2.9 rebounds over the last 10 games.
LAST 10 GAMES: Knicks: 6-4, averaging 110.4 points, 40.7 rebounds, 26.2 assists, 8.4 steals and 3.3 blocks per game while shooting 49.4% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 106.9 points per game.
Hawks: 5-5, averaging 117.2 points, 43.5 rebounds, 27.7 assists, 8.4 steals and 4.7 blocks per game while shooting 47.2% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 112.0 points.
INJURIES: Knicks: Tyler Kolek: day to day (oblique), Mitchell Robinson: day to day (ankle), Karl-Anthony Towns: day to day (elbow).
Hawks: Jock Landale: out (ankle).
___
The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.
Atlanta, GA
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks prediction, pick for Game 1 of 2026 NBA Playoffs first round
Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Saturday’s Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks matchup in the NBA Playoffs.
The NBA playoffs are officially underway with a loaded opening round. Taking place in the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup in the Eastern Conference, the Atlanta Hawks will take on the New York Knicks.
You can check out the full series preview on DraftKings Network here.
Looking at the odds for the series opener, the Knicks enter as 6.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Hawks are +205 underdogs with the game total set at O/U 218.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Eastern Conference series opener.
Hawks vs. Knicks prediction, preview
The Atlanta Hawks went through a midseason transition, moving on from Trae Young after he headlined the production for the franchise for the past eight years. The Hawks have not missed a beat amid the major midseason shakeup, finishing as the sixth seed in the conference with a 46-36 overall record. On the season, Atlanta has gone 44-38 against the spread, and the game total has gone 41-41 to the over/under.
Jock Landale is the only player set to miss the matchup tonight. Jalen Johnson headlines the production, posting averages of 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has had a breakout season in a new location, adding 20.8 points, 3.7 assists, and 3.4 rebounds per game. CJ McCollum adds 18.7 points and 4.1 assists across his first 41 games with the organization, while Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Jonathan Kuminga, and Zaccharie Risacher also play notable roles.
Quin Snyder’s group scores 118.5 points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Hawks also rank 14th in offensive rating, 13th in field goal percentage, and fifth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 116.0 points per game against Atlanta, which ranks 18th in the league. They also rank ninth in defensive rating, 18th in opponent field goal percentage, and 12th in opponent three-point percentage.
The New York Knicks entered the season with legitimate title aspirations. They have had some notable ups and downs, but now face this opportunity. New York finished the regular season with a 53-29 record and sit in third place in the East. The Knicks have gone 44-39 against the spread, and the game total has gone 38-45 to the over/under.
The Knicks enter this matchup with a clear injury report and a large sample size of the team playing together. Jalen Brunson headlines the production with 26.0 points, 6.8 assists, and 3.3 rebounds, while Karl-Anthony Towns pitches in 20.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists of his own. OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges are responsible for the production at the wing positions, while Josh Hart sets the tone for this team from a hustle standpoint. New York also did an impressive job building out the bench unit this season, with players like Jordan Clarkson, Mitchell Robinson, Landry Shamet, and Tyler Kolek capable of serving as X-factors off the bench.
As a team, the Knicks are scoring 116.5 points per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. New York also ranks third in offense rating, 11th in field goal percentage, and fourth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 110.1 points per game against the Knicks, which ranks fifth in the league. They also rank seventh in defensive rating, fifth in opponent field goal percentage, and 20th in opponent three-point percentage.
Hawks vs. Knicks pick, best bet
These are two teams at different stages of their timeline, but neither will be afraid of this playoff spotlight. The Knicks pushed their chips in around this core and are hoping to be rewarded for it. They fell to the Indiana Pacers in the Conference Finals last year and have made the postseason in four consecutive seasons. Atlanta missed out on the playoffs in back-to-back years and turned a new page direction with Jalen Johnson now leading the charge. Without Trae Young, the Hawks now lean on more of a defensive-minded identity and have a roster loaded with athleticism.
During the regular season, these teams faced off three times. They split the first two matchups, which took place on December 27th and January 2nd. New York picked up a narrow 108-105 victory in the most recent game, which took place on April 6th. Both sides were aware that this was a potential postseason matchup, and this game had some major seeding implications. It was an evenly matched game in which neither team was able to extend a lead beyond 10 points, and the rebounding battle was separated by just one board. The biggest discrepancy came with the Knicks shooting 50% compared to the Hawks shooting 40%, and New York outscoring Atlanta 52-34 in the paint.
While there are higher expectations for this Knicks team in the postseason outlook, the Hawks stack up fairly well in this matchup. Jalen Brunson will be at the heart of the offensive attack for New York. But his biggest weakness is when he is guarded by high-level athletes with a size advantage over him. The Hawks have built out a roster loaded with this archetype of player, and there is not a clear matchup for Brunson to hunt in most lineup combinations.
Brunson has enough experience and savvy to will settle in over the course of the series. But expect some growing pains in the early parts of this matchup, and for this to be a huge hurdle for this Knicks team. I am backing the Hawks to cover the 5.5-point spread and would not be shocked if they steal the opening game. This is a series in which neither side should be expected to pull away by major margins throughout. Count on Atlanta to have defense success and have a clear gameplan for limiting the impact of Brunson. Expect this matchup to come down to the wire and take the points in the series opener.
Best Bet: Hawks +6.5 (-112)
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