Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons Game Predictions | Week 6

What we’re hearing on the Bills: Buffalo’s offense has an extra day to prepare after the team’s first loss, which was also the first time it failed to score 30 points this season. One objective is reducing the turnovers (three vs. New England) against a Falcons team that has six takeaways on the season (tied for 11th most). But an important part of the offense that could be a challenge against Atlanta is the big plays. The Bills are second in the NFL with 37 explosive plays (rushes of 10-plus yards and completions of 20-plus yards), but the Falcons have allowed just 14 explosive plays this season, second fewest in the NFL. — Alaina Getzenberg

What we’re hearing on the Falcons: Atlanta’s defense has been excellent against the pass so far. It has allowed the fewest passing yards per game (108) — 46 yards per game fewer than any other team — and opposing teams have the seventh-worst EPA per dropback (minus-0.09) against the Falcons and the sixth-worst completion percentage over expected (minus-3.1%). However, the Falcons have not faced a QB like Josh Allen, whom coach Raheem Morris referred to as “a problem everywhere.” — Marc Raimondi

Stat to know: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson has five straight games with 100 yards from the line of scrimmage dating back to last season. That’s tied with 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey for the longest active streak in the NFL. — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: The Falcons will generate multiple 30-plus-yard gains on plays where they use motion at the snap. They use motion at the snap 53% of the time (second in the NFL), and the Bills are allowing 0.23 EPA per play vs. motion at the snap, third most in the NFL this season. — Walder

Fantasy nugget: The Bills’ defense has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs this season. Drake London did have 10 targets and a season-high 25 fantasy points in Week 4, but this isn’t a favorable matchup. Buffalo’s defense will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss and could make things tough for second-year QB Michael Penix Jr. See Week 6 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bills are 0-3 ATS in their past three games, their longest ATS losing streak since Weeks 5-10 of 2023 (six straight). Read more. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s pick: Bills 34, Falcons 31

Moody’s pick: Bills 35, Falcons 21

Walder’s pick: Bills 30, Falcons 20

FPI prediction: BUF, 61.0% (by an average of 4.6 points)