Atlanta's key to victory down the stretch: Touchdowns, touchdowns, touchdowns

Underscoring the importance of ending drives with touchdowns is the fact that the Falcons have 113 offensive drives this season, the fourth fewest in the NFL. Despite having a low number of possessions and struggling to score touchdowns over the last two games, Atlanta still ranks 12th in both points per drive (2.10) and touchdown percentage (22.1%). It’s not time to hit the panic button, but it’s clear the offense needs to find a way to score touchdowns to get back on track.

Again, it’s not exactly the most advanced statistical analysis to say a team needs to score touchdowns to win. In Atlanta’s case though, the difference in success is clear. The Falcons are a better overall team when scoring more points. In wins, or games when they’ve scored more than 20 points, the Falcons have averaged 2.84 points per drive and scored touchdowns on 29.5% of drives. In those games, Atlanta is also converting 55% of its red zone possessions into touchdowns. In losses, those numbers fall to 1.23 points per drive, 13.5% of drives end in touchdowns and red zone efficiency drops to 50%.

Unsurprisingly, the Falcons also average more plays per drive (6.13 to 5.88), a higher down-set conversion rate (77.4% to 69.1%) and fewer three-and-outs (9.8% to 17.3%) in wins versus losses.

There are clear differences in the numbers when comparing wins to losses, which again, it’s not surprising to say the offense has played better in wins than it has in losses, but the key difference is points. With the exception of losses to Seattle and Denver, Atlanta’s other three losses have come by one score or less.

For Atlanta, this is what it means to play complementary football. The defense has played well enough to win when the offense is scoring. When the offense struggles to score it puts more pressure on the defense and makes each offensive possession more critical.

Scoring, particularly scoring touchdowns, also allows the offense to stay within its game script, as mentioned above. It allows for more opportunities in the run game for Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, it enables Zac Robinson to call more play-action passes and helps keep the opposing defense honest, giving the offensive line an edge when it comes to keeping Kirk Cousins clean in the pocket.