The Atlanta Hawks have won three in a row and seven of their last ten games coming into tonight’s matchup with the Houston Rockets. This game is going to be an interesting matchup between one of the league’s hottest offenses vs one of the league’s best defenses. Houston won a close matchup in Atlanta earlier this season and another close game could be on the way.

Our own Rohan Raman gave an in-depth preview for tonight’s game:

“Coming into tonight’s game, the Hawks are 5th in the NBA in PPG, 14th in FG%, 16th in 3PA, 19th in 3P%, 2nd in FTA, 25th in turnovers, and 13th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 17th in points per 100 possessions, 18th in effective field goal percentage, 21st in turnover percentage, 13th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 7th in free throw rate.

Currently, the Hawks rank 27th in PPG allowed, 28th in field goal percentage allowed, 15th in three-point attempts allowed, and 27th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 18th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The Rockets’ offense has been an inconsistent unit all season. They are 17th in the NBA in PPG, 25th in FG%, 20th in 3PA, 23rd in 3P%, 5th in FTA, 13th in turnovers, and 1st in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Houston is 13th in points per 100 possessions, 26th in effective field goal percentage, 10th in turnover percentage, 1st in offensive rebounding percentage, and 25th in free throw rate.

Fortunately for them, Houston’s defense has been a top-five unit throughout the season. They rank 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in field goal percentage allowed, 2nd in three-point attempts allowed, and 10th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Rockets are 3rd in points allowed per 100 possessions and 2nd in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Trae Young had 21 points and nine assists during his last outing against the Rockets, but the Hawks star has been on a torrid scoring run as of late. In his last 10 games, he’s averaging 27.8 points and 10.9 assists on 45.2/34.5/94% shooting splits. Young will likely draw Fred VanVleet on defense, which is a tough matchup. VanVleet is in the midst of one of his better seasons on defense – his defensive box plus-minus of 1.5 is the second-best mark of his career and his penchant for defensive communication/timing is critical to Houston’s effectiveness on defense. However, the Rockets are fresh off of getting torched by Jamal Murray for 39 points, so they aren’t immune to struggling against opposing ball-handlers.

The hallmark of this Rockets team is running teams off the three-point line. They are excellent at stifling attempts and rarely allow teams to get hot. That’s because they have athletic, smart and versatile defenders like Tari Eason and Amen Thompson. Atlanta is short on offensive creators not named Trae Young, but this could be an area where Zaccharie Risacher makes a difference. In his last 10 games, he’s averaging 14.2 points and 4.2 rebounds on 50/38.6/80% shooting splits. His handle is improving and his confidence in his shot is growing with each game. Atlanta did not have him for their last matchup against Houston, so his performance could be critical in a Hawks victory. Georges Niang is going to be critical in this matchup – he’s the team’s best volume three-point shooter and the Rockets are likely going to clamp down on him. If he can’t get some shots to fall, that could be a problem for the Hawks.

Although it’s an excellent defense, Houston’s scheme isn’t great at stopping teams in the paint. weakness of the Rockets. They’re 18th in opposing points in the paint (OPITP) and the duo of DeAndre Jordan and Aaron Gordon collected 24 points and 19 rebounds during Houston’s last game. The Hawks rank 3rd in PITP largely due to the emergence of Onyeka Okongwu. Okongwu’s averaging 15.4 points and 10.9 rebounds on 58/50/88.5% shooting splits in his last 10 games. He has an interesting matchup tonight against Alperen Sengun. Sengun is an excellent playmaker and he deserves respect as a scorer, but I’m interested to see how well these two centers guard each other. Okongwu has been a solid rim protector while Sengun is defensively limited.

Atlanta’s bench has been among the best in basketball – they rank 4th in bench points per game and 7th in FG%. However, the Rockets’ second unit is a bit weaker on offense. They are 25th in points per game, but their bench is 3rd in defensive rating. If the Rockets can clamp down on the Hawks’ scoring from their second unit, this could be a rough game for Atlanta’s offense.”

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, the Rockets are 8.5 point favorites against the Hawks tonight and the total is set at 236.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER. 

This is going to be a nice test for the Hawks after a relatively light schedule. Trae Young, Onyeka Okongwu, and Caris LeVert are playing well coming into the game, but a road test against a team full of defenders that can give both Young and LeVert a lot of trouble. Expect a close game, but the Rockets find a way to get the win at home.

Final Score: Houston 119, Atlanta 112 (ATL +8.5 and Under)

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