Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Spread and Final Score Predictions

The Atlanta Hawks are on the road tonight to face the NBA’s best team, the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs come into the game with a 17-1 record, with the only loss being a road loss to Boston in the NBA Cup. This is going to be the first of two matchups this week between the two teams, with the next one being on Black Friday in the last day of NBA Cup Group Play.

Trae Young (right Achilles tendinitis) is questionable for tonight’s game and Cody Zeller (Not with team) is out. Max Strus (ankle), Dean Wade (ankle), and Caris LeVert (knee) are out for Cleveland tonight. Keep an eye out for Young’s official status.

Coming into tonight’s game, the Hawks are 9th in the NBA in PPG, 19th in FG%, 21st in 3PA, 22nd in 3P%, 5th in FTA, 24th in turnovers, and 13th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 20th in points per 100 possessions, 20th in effective field goal percentage, 19th in turnover percentage, 9th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 11th in free throw rate.

Currently, the Hawks rank 28th in PPG allowed, 22nd in field goal percentage allowed, 30th in three-point attempts allowed, and 30th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 21st in points allowed per 100 possessions and 30th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Cleveland has the best record in the league and it is not fluky. The numbers reflect those of an elite team and Atlanta is gonig to be challenged a great deal tonight. The Cavs are 1st in the NBA in PPG, 1st in FG%, 13th in three-point attempts, 1st in 3P%, 27th in free throw attempts, 19th in rebounding, and 6th in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, Cleveland is 2nd in points per 100 possessions, 1st in effective field goal percentage, 6th in turnover percentage, 26th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 27th in free throw rate.

Defensively, the Cavs might not be as elite as some years past, but they are still very good. They rank 10th in PPG allowed, 10th in FG% allowed, 13th in three point attempts allowed, and 28th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Cleveland is 8th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 12th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The big question for the Hawks is if Young plays. While they did win a game without him, the offense is not as good when he is off the floor. He has not been his usual self this season, but still leads the league in assists and is coming off of an 18-point, 16 assist game. If he does not play tonight, I think either Kobe Bufkin or Bogdan Bogdanovic would start in his place.

Dyson Daniels is going to have the task of guarding Donovan Mitchell tonight and maybe even Darius Garland too when Mitchell is off the floor. Daniels has been the best perimeter defender in the NBA this season, but has not had a huge impact game since the Hawks back-to-back wins vs the Celtics and Wizards. When Young was out vs the Celtics, Daniels had the best game of his career. His shooting has not been where it needs to be, but he will be an impact player tonight.

The Hawks have continued to start No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher, but he has been struggling shooting from three (and in general) and has not played a lot of minutes over the past few games. Assuming Risacher continues to start, how long he is on the floor might depend on how he is shooting. He has been a good defender, but the Hawks have a shooting/spacing problem right now and if he is not shooting well, it hurts the team.

Jalen Johnson is coming off of a huge 28-point, 11 rebound game in which he shot 12-20 from the field. Johnson could have a huge night on the glass tonight. He is one of the best rebounders in the league and Cleveland ranks 19th in rebounding and 26th in offensive rebounding rate.

The center position for the Hawks has to be better moving forward. Clint Capela offers rim protection and solid rebounding, but most nights he has nothing to offer on offense. Onyeka Okongwu is supposed to be the guy to bring offense, but he has not had a good season and is one of the main reasons the Hawks bench is struggling so much. If the struggles continue for Okongwu, the Hawks might want to consider playing Larry Nance more.

The bench for the Hawks has been a big problem and it was supposed to be a strength for the team coming into the year. Bogdan Bogdaovic has started to shoot the ball better in the last two games, but De’Andre Hunter is back to struggling after a solid start to the season. Kobe Bufkin has not made an impact in the games he has played since coming back from injury. The Hawks starting unit has been a good unit, but the bench is a big reason for the Hawks struggles tonight.

The Cavs are not one of the league’s best rebounding teams, they don’t get to the line (27th in free throw attempts and free throw rate), and they are 28th in three-point percentage allowed. If the Hawks can win the rebounding battle, have a big free throw advantage, and find a way to not get destroyed in the three-point battle, they just might have a chance.

Cleveland has an elite guard combo with Mitchell and Garland and both are playing outstanding to start the year. Evan Mobley might be the big story with the Cavs though. He is a tremendous defender and is now shooting 36% from three, though not on high volume. Ty Jerome has been one of the best bench players in the NBA and has been one of the best shooters this year as well, shooting 54% from three this season.

Atlanta is a 10-point underdog tonight vs the Cavs according to Fanduel Sportsbook. The total is set at 240.5.

Prediction

With or without Young, it is tough to see the Hawks going on the road and winning this game. The three-point defense is a major issue and when you are facing the top three-point shooting team in terms of percentage, that seems like a bad recipe. Maybe the Cavs have a poor shooting night and the Hawks can have advantages elsehwhere, but I will believe it when I see. Maybe they can pull off an upset like when they won in Boston, but the Cavs win tonight at home.

Final Score: Cavs 126, Hawks 113

Additional Links:

Hawks vs Cavaliers: Game Preview, Injury Report, Betting Odds, Projected Starting Lineups For Tonight’s Game

Former Lottery Pick Named As One Of The Atlanta Hawks Top Trade Targets This Season

NBA Analyst Names Dyson Daniels As The Atlanta Hawks Biggest Surprise Of The Season