Mississippi State football vs Arkansas score prediction, scouting report in Week 9 SEC game

STARKVILLE — Everyone remembers, and maybe is trying to forget, last season’s 7-3 slugfest between Mississippi State football and Arkansas. 

The Bulldogs prevailed, with Jo’Quavious Marks’ touchdown in the second quarter being the difference maker. Based on the outlooks of the teams this season, there should be more offensive fireworks when Mississippi State (1-6, 0-4 SEC) hosts Arkansas (4-3, 2-2) at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday (11:45 a.m., SEC Network). 

“I think both teams are in a completely different place,” first-year MSU coach Jeff Lebby said. “Again, they’re playing much, much better offensively. … I think when you look at them, they have the chance to make some explosive plays, and they have.”

Here’s a look inside the Week 9 matchup. 

Arkansas has had good and bad moments this season

The peak of Arkansas’ season so far came three weeks ago when it toppled then-undefeated Tennessee at home. Arkansas and coach Sam Pittman also have wins at Auburn and against UAB and Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Its losses have come to Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and most recently LSU. 

Arkansas has playmakers on offense

The Razorbacks have rejuvenated their offense with the return of coordinator Bobby Petrino. 

Wide receiver Andrew Armstrong is third in the SEC with 646 receiving yards, while running back Ja’Quinden Jackson is fourth in the conference with 592 rushing yards. Taylen Green, a Boise State transfer, is the quarterback, a dual threat who has 316 yards and four touchdowns rushing.

However, Arkansas’ offense has been in rut lately and hasn’t scored more than 24 points in any of its past four games. Its 17.5 scoring average in conference games is fourth worst in the SEC. 

Jackson is doubtful to play, according to Wednesday’s injury report. MSU struggled to defend the run to begin the season, but held Georgia and Texas A&M to under 150 rushing yards in back-to-back games.

“They’re always going to be a hard-nosed team,” MSU linebacker Stone Blanton said. “They’re head coach is a hard-nosed guy. (They) always have big O-linemen, big backs.”

MORE: Three alarming stats for Mississippi State football’s defense after Texas A&M loss

Mississippi State could have a productive rushing day

The Arkansas defense has been pretty well-rounded this season. However, the Razorbacks have allowed a 100-yard rusher in three consecutive games. 

That means Mississippi State’s running backs could be in for a big game, though it hasn’t had a 100-yard rusher this season. Johnnie Daniels has been MSU’s most consistent running back, but Davon Booth is coming off a season-high 79 rushing yards.

A lot will depend on the offensive line, too, which hasn’t met expectations this season. 

“You see a physical football team that plays with a ton of effort,” Lebby said of Arkansas. “It is all over the tape and it’s in all three phases.”

Lineman Landon Jackson is the player to watch on Arkansas’ defense.

Mississippi State vs Arkansas score prediction

Arkansas 27, Mississippi State 26: This is a very winnable game for MSU, which has played much better in three consecutive games. However, the defense is still a big concern. It’ll be tight in the fourth quarter, until Arkansas pulls ahead on a late game-winning field goal.

Sam Sklar is the Mississippi State beat reporter for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at ssklar@gannett.com and follow him on X @sklarsam_.