How Auburn could beat Arkansas while noting edge Hogs bring to town

It’s been a while since Auburn beat a power-conference team.

The date was Nov. 11, 2023 and the momentum was positive for Hugh Freeze’s first Tiger team. Having beaten Mississippi State and Vanderbilt in the previous two weeks consecutively, the 48-10 demolition at Arkansas had that ship pointed in the right direction.

All the Tigers had to do was take care of New Mexico State and ride some momentum into the Iron Bowl.

About 10 months later, we know how it all collapsed from there.

So, the reunion of that lopsided evening in Fayetteville comes with a much different tone. Arkansas looked solid early this season with coach Sam Pittman’s job in question. It blew a huge opportunity to steal a road win at ranked Oklahoma State then looked mediocre last week in a sloppy win over UAB.

Auburn’s been all over the place too, so this one’s about as hard to predict as any Week 4 game.

Best case scenario: Hank Brown takes next step, Auburn keeps balance

Two weeks ago, the Auburn QB situation was in shambles. Payton Thorne threw four interceptions in the Week 2 loss to Cal so Freeze turned to his redshirt freshman gun slinger from Nashville.

The audition against New Mexico last week went about as well as could be expected on a night featuring Biblical downpours. Only six of his 25 throws weren’t completed, none intercepted with four touchdowns. That’s exactly the kind of clean sheet Freeze and Co., needed to see after the charitable passing against Cal a week earlier.

Of course it should be noted New Mexico has statistically the second-worst defense in FBS in terms of yards allowed (565.7 per game). But that’s who was next and Brown did nothing to make anyone miss Thorne.

Add in the fact Jarquez Hunter ran for 152 yards on 20 carries and Auburn will bring some real life offensive momentum into SEC play.

That said, Arkansas is much better than any team in New Mexico. The Razorbacks held the nation’s 2023 top rusher, Ollie Gordon, to just 49 yards on 11 carries in a 39-31 overtime loss. His longest run was a 12-yarder so the Hogs seem better equipped to stop the home-run rushing threat Hunter presents. (He ran it 16 times for 109 yards and a 6.8-yard average last year at Arkansas.

The Tigers should be in good shape if they can get the pass/run yard ratio in the 235-268 ballpark it tallied last week.

That’s also much easier said than done against a functional defense.

Worst case scenario: Bobby Petrino’s offense does Auburn dirty

Auburn knows Bobby Petrino.

Bobby Petrino knows Auburn. And Auburn’s planes.

Everyone also knows the former Tiger offensive coordinator was nowhere near Fayetteville for last year’s embarrassing loss to Auburn.

And for all the offensive momentum the Tigers took out of the 45-19 win over New Mexico, there were still plenty of defensive frustrations. Like the fact the Lobos outgained the hosts into the fourth quarter before gravity returned and the Tigers snatched a 146-50 edge in the final 15.

Arkansas enters with the nation’s seventh-best total offense when only including games against FBS opponents. The Hogs are averaging 537.5 yards in the games with Oklahoma State and UAB, as Petrino has added a more explosive component to what was a sleepy offensive scheme.

New QB Taylen Green threw for 416 yards in the loss at Oklahoma State, averaging 9.2 per attempt while rushing for 61 yards on 18 attempts. And last week, he nearly cracked triple digits on the ground (17 carries for 96 yards and two TDs) despite completing less than half of his 26 passes for 161 yards and an interception.

Bottom line: He’s more explosive than his predecessor, KJ Jefferson who was 10-for-16 for 116 yards in last year’s loss to Auburn.

Does Auburn have the defense to slow him when winless New Mexico managed 448 yards week ago?

Prediction: Auburn 21, Arkansas 18

This was as close to a dice roll as any and the biggest question to me concerns the top line number. Auburn wins by three or four. If I was making the pick at the end of the week, I’d probably say 28-24, Tigers but I’ll stick with the number I used Monday for our weekly staff picks.

Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.