Arkansas Universities See Growth This Fall as Enrollment Cliff Looms

The state’s largest universities saw fall enrollment increase this year as each prepares for the coming enrollment cliff predicted to hit in 2026.

The University of Arkansas’ flagship campus in Fayetteville reported 33,610 students to the Arkansas Department of Higher Education for its “11th day” snapshot enrollment numbers. The number represented an increase of 4.6% and was the fourth consecutive year the university reported record enrollment.

The UA wasn’t alone as Arkansas State University in Jonesboro reported enrollment of 16,687, a 12% increase, and the University of Central Arkansas in Conway and the University of Arkansas at Little Rock each reported gains of 3.4% or better.

UA Chancellor Charles Robinson noted that 6,614 of those 33,610 enrolled were incoming freshmen, the second-highest number in the school’s history behind the 2022 class of 7,096.

“I think we built strong pipelines throughout the state of Arkansas, which is our first focus,” Robinson said. “But it didn’t just start this year. We’ve had a trend of growth in our freshman classes that have been strong for a number of years.”

Todd Shields was named chancellor at Arkansas State in 2022 and almost immediately increased the university’s efforts to market the school and recruit students. The efforts have paid off with A-State reporting 16,687 for its 11th-day snapshot.

“That’s a huge increase,” Shields said. “We basically really started just looking at everything that we did and doubling down on what we were doing with recruitment, doubling down on what we’re doing for advertising, making sure that people knew what was happening.”

Suzanne McCray, the vice provost for enrollment at UA-Fayetteville, said all universities and colleges in the state have worked to become as “cliff resistant” as possible. Changing demographics — primarily lower birth rates in the U.S. — are expected to result in fewer college-age students beginning in 2026.

“We did enjoy this fall, climbing up to the top of the crest, and next year, it’ll be good as well,” McCray said. “And then 2026-27 is when we’re going to notice a perceptible decline. We’re trying to be cliff resistant. I think larger institutions, research universities, that can draw from a wider number of states and wider area, I think they are going to have an easier time of it.”

Spread the Word

The University of Arkansas at Little Rock had the second-largest freshman class by percentage in its history. It welcomed 460 first-time freshmen, a 28.9% increase from a year ago and just shy of the 30% increase of the 2022 class. Chancellor Christina Drale said the university has tried to be creative in challenging times to bring in more students.

“We really knew that, in the current environment, when everyone is dealing with the same thing, we had to think outside the box,” Drale said. “You have to really develop all of your tools for marketing and for reaching out to new audiences.”

Drale said UA Little Rock’s success was a result of hitting its traditional recruiting areas in central Arkansas harder but also adding recruiters in newer areas such as northeast Texas and east Arkansas and the Memphis area.

Shields said marketing has been a big key to A-State’s success. He said he wasn’t aware of some of the advantages enjoyed by A-State and Jonesboro, such as the area’s booming steel industry, the low cost of living and educational opportunities that include a new veterinary school.

“If I didn’t know about it, how’s the average person in Arkansas supposed to know about it?” Shields, who came to Jonesboro from the U of A in Fayetteville, asked. “We did some testing and focus groups, and they didn’t know about it. So, it was just making sure that we let people know what a great education they can get here. And then when you look at tuition, fees, housing, meal plans and overall cost of living, we’re hard to beat. People often overlook Jonesboro.”

UA-Fayetteville, thanks to its scale, has a much wider recruiting footprint than others in the state, but Robinson said the university  will always look inside the state’s borders first.

He said UA will never turn away a qualified in-state student.

The UA reported 16,519 Arkansas students among its enrollees, nearly as many as A-State’s entire student body.

“If anything, the cliff is just going to encourage us to work harder in Arkansas, because we never want to lose our primacy in Arkansas,” Robinson said.

Harder Times Ahead

McCray said the enrollment cliff will be more challenging for colleges and universities that draw from a smaller area.

The University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff reported enrollment of 2,045, a 2.4% drop from a year ago. There were positives such as a 7% increase in new student enrollment, said Moses Goldmon, the university’s vice chancellor of enrollment management.

Goldmon said UAPB was hurt by a significant drop in retention numbers. The university reorganized its recruiting division and increased its recruiting efforts in spaces traditionally receptive to UAPB.

“With chagrin, I expect the cliff to present even greater challenges, particularly with respect to recruitment and admissions,” Goldmon said. “However, I also anticipate that our restructuring and evolving strategic enrollment management approach will help us be more competitive.

“If we can regain our pre-COVID momentum, where we saw increases in persistence, retention and graduation rates for several years, we should be able to stabilize and then grow our enrollment by focusing on excellent student service and student success.”

Robinson seized on the word “retention,” saying it was as important as recruiting in the higher education world. UA-Fayetteville reported a 70% graduation rate for its most recently completed class.

“It’s not just recruiting; it is holding students, retaining them,” Robinson said. “We have, as an institution, crashed past the 70% mark in our graduation rate for the first time in our history. There’s nobody in the state with that type of percentage. Our retention rate held at 86% for the second year in a row. So we’re doing better retaining students. We’re doing better graduating students.”

Drale said she was encouraged by the increase in UA Little Rock’s incoming freshmen class. If those students stay the course, that will stabilize numbers when the cliff comes into play, she said.

UA Little Rock also reported 786 transfer students, an 18% increase from a year ago.

“When you can get a significant bump in new freshmen and new transfers, that then increases your subsequent years,” Drale said. “The class, it goes through sort of the funnel, and it increases your enrollment for returning students in sub-sequent years. With a big increase in new freshmen and new transfers, we’re pretty excited about what that will mean for us long term.”