Arkansas
Arkansas looks like Mississippi State’s most winnable SEC game again. Can Jeff Lebby break through?
STARKVILLE — Coach Jeff Lebby doesn’t talk about last season to his Mississippi State football players anymore.
Nothing can be changed from the Bulldogs’ 2-10 record in Lebby’s first season where they lost every SEC game by double digits and only notched wins against FCS Eastern Kentucky and then-FBS independent UMass.
But with MSU’s next game at Arkansas (2-6, 0-4 SEC) on Nov. 1 (3 p.m., SEC Network) perhaps a portion of last season should be revisited.
The matchup for MSU (4-4, 0-4) appears to be its best remaining chance to end its 16-game SEC losing streak. But that was also a thought last season when Mississippi State hosted Arkansas. Mississippi State was served a humbling 58-25 beatdown at Davis Wade Stadium.
“One thing I mentioned last year was ‘Hey, let’s go play as hard as we possibly can,’” Lebby said. “‘Let’s do everything we can this week to go play as hard as we can and maybe the ball will bounce the right way and somehow we’ll be able to go win a football game.’ That was the reality of it. I didn’t talk like that during the season because I never will.
“This is a completely different situation. We got a good football team. We did not a year ago. We have a good enough team to win.”
Even with Arkansas’ six-game losing streak and Bobby Petrino as the interim coach, Lebby said the Bulldogs will have to beat “the best 2-6 football team in the country” to get the elusive SEC win. The program’s last SEC win was at Arkansas in 2023.
Why Arkansas is Mississippi State’s best chance to snap SEC losing streak
Mississippi State has four games remaining. Arkansas is the only opponent not ranked in the US LBM Coaches Poll. Mississippi State still has home games against No. 5 Georgia, No. 8 Ole Miss and a road game at No. 20 Missouri.
In a way, Arkansas is similar to last season’s Mississippi State team. It’s in the midst of a long losing streak. Arkansas is anchored down by the SEC’s worst defense, just like MSU in 2024.
But there are differences too that make the Razorbacks not a gimme. BetMGM lists Mississippi State as a 4.5-point underdog as of Oct. 29.
The Razorbacks have played all of their SEC games close, including Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas A&M. Taylen Green is a quarterback who causes problems in the air and on the ground. He scored six touchdowns against the Bulldogs last season.
Arkansas fired its defensive coordinator, defensive line coach and secondary coach on Sept. 29.
“Defensively, they’re completely different,” Lebby said. “… We have three games that we’ve watched that can kind give you the information of what we’re going to get this weekend. It’s very limited tape, but feel like we have a good grasp of what it’s going to look like and what we’re going to get.”
How Mississippi State vs Arkansas could be decided
Three of the last four games for Mississippi State have been heartbreaking losses.
MSU led Tennessee by seven points in the fourth quarter before losing in overtime. It was in range for a potential game-winning field goal at Florida until quarterback Blake Shapen threw an interception. In Week 9, MSU coughed up a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter before losing to Texas in overtime.
“It’s truly each position and that’s what we talked about in the team meeting,” Lebby said. “It’s not one guy in one situation and one thing happening that’s keeping us from knocking the door down and getting the victory. It’s every position on the field. It’s giving these guys something a little better to go execute.”
Arkansas has lost those same battles as Mississippi State.
Against Ole Miss, the Razorbacks lost a fumble near the red zone while trailing by six with two minutes to play. They also fumbled with 1:18 remaining while in field-goal range against Memphis before losing 32-31. Their losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M were both by three points. Arkansas’ last game ended in a brutal 33-24 loss to Auburn when in the fourth quarter it committed four turnovers and was outscored 17-0.
“I think every game in this league is hard to win,” MSU wide receiver Brenen Thompson said. “I think winning is hard as it is no matter what league you’re in, but especially this league. Every game gets diagnosed the same. Every game gets the same amount of effort put in to it, at least for me and this team.”
Sam Sklar is the Mississippi State beat reporter for The Clarion Ledger. Email him at ssklar@gannett.com and follow him on X @sklarsam_.