Arkansas basketball must reverse two-year trend to make this season’s NCAA Tournament

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Eric Musselman’s NCAA Tournament resume speaks for itself.

Since taking the helm as the Arkansas basketball head coach in 2019, Musselman has made three appearances in the Sweet 16 and twice reached the Elite 8. Each of those seasons came with momentary doubts, but Arkansas has always found the right recipe for success in March.

However, a troubling trend is emerging for the Razorbacks during this regular season. After Saturday’s 83-51 loss to No. 25 Auburn that marked the worst home defeat in program history, the Hogs are 1-10 in their last 11 games against teams ranked inside the AP Top 25 excluding the NCAA Tournament. Their only win during that stretch was this season’s home victory over Duke.

Before this downslide, Musselman was 7-7 against ranked opponents. His teams were known for playing their best basketball at the most important junctures of the season. While last year’s trip to the Sweet 16 brought forth validation and included a win over Kansas — a No. 1 seed — the Hogs are seemingly starting to lose their edge against the best teams in the country.

And most concerning with regards to this season is Musselman’s lack of confidence in Arkansas being able to turn things around. He might not get the chance to put together another redeeming run.

“How would I know,” Musselman said after Saturday’s loss when asked if this year’s team could solve its problems.

“All I know is I’ve got to try to talk about them and address them.”

More: ‘We quit’: Arkansas basketball reaches season low-point in blowout loss to No. 25 Auburn

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Arkansas woke up Sunday morning sitting 104th in the NET Rankings, which is the NCAA’s primary sorting tool for evaluating teams on Selection Sunday. Arkansas ranked 21st in the NET prior to the 2023 NCAA Tournament, resulting in a No. 8 seed.

The Razorbacks will need a significant climb just to make the 2024 tournament. With the strength of the SEC and plenty of potential for Quad 1 victories on the schedule, there’s still hope that Arkansas can reach this year’s edition of March Madness.

But the Hogs will need to buck this trend of losing to top-25 teams. Arkansas currently has four ranked ranked teams remaining on the schedule, with two of those games on the road. The Hogs have not won a road SEC game against a ranked opponent since Jan. 15, 2022. Arkansas beat No. 12 LSU 65-58 that day.

It’s impossible to know just how many wins Arkansas needs to rattle off over the final 17 games, but all focus will shift to the baseball season if Arkansas continues its losing ways against top opponents.