What SEC championship round-robin tiebreakers mean for Alabama football after LSU win

Sixteen SEC football games remain until two championship game bids are awarded.

That is 65,536 potential outcomes to decide which two SEC teams have the chance to play for an SEC championship in Atlanta Dec. 7.

But despite losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee during conference play, Alabama football has a significant chance to make the SEC championship, especially after its 42-13 win at LSU Saturday night.

Here’s a look at where the Crimson Tide stand with three games left on its schedule including conference bouts against Oklahoma and Auburn.

Where Alabama stands in SEC standings

Alabama is one of five two-loss teams in the SEC along with Georgia, Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri.

Head-to-head, the Crimson Tide hold an advantage over each of them. Alabama beat Georgia, LSU and Missouri, while it has a better record against common conference opponents than Ole Miss.

Here is a look at the current SEC standings through Week 11 of the football season.

• Texas A&M (5-1)
• Tennessee (5-1)
• Texas (4-1)
• Georgia (5-2)
• Alabama (4-2)
• Ole Miss (4-2)
• LSU (3-2)
• Missouri (3-2)
• South Carolina (4-3)
• Arkansas (3-3)
• Vanderbilt (3-3)
• Florida (2-4)
• Auburn (1-5)
• Oklahoma (1-5)
• Kentucky (1-6)
• Mississippi State (0-6)

But head-to-head tiebreakers may not be what Alabama needs to have an advantage in by the end of the season.

What SEC round-robin tiebreaker means for Alabama football

In the event of a tie between three or more teams vying for an SEC championship bid, the tiebreaker begins at head-to-head competition among the tied teams and the record against all common conference opponents. From there, the record against the highest-placed common conference will be compared.

If a tie remains, the teams will be ranked by cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among tied teams, followed by a comparison of relative total scoring margin. As a last resort, a random draw of the tied teams will ensue.

The farther tiebreakers go, the more they would favor Alabama.

In SEC play, Alabama has faced five teams currently ranked in the US LBM Coaches Poll top 25: Georga, South Carolina, Tennessee, Missouri and LSU.

If Alabama were to win out, according to mred’s SEC standings tracker, its conference opponent win percentage would be better than teams like Georgia, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee, if it loses to the Bulldogs Saturday, and Texas A&M, if it loses to Texas Nov. 30.

But it’s close. The Crimson Tide’s advantage is by 0.0.156 percentage points.

Which games could decide Alabama SEC championship fate?

If Texas wins its next two games against Arkansas and Kentucky, and Texas A&M beats Auburn Nov. 23, the Longhorns vs. Aggies game Nov. 30 will be for the top seed in the SEC. The loser would fall below two-loss Alabama because of the Crimson Tide’s conference opponent win percentage.

After Georgia’s loss to Ole Miss Saturday, Tennessee alone could decide the Crimson Tide’s fate.

If the Volunteers beat the Bulldogs and Vanderbilt, the SEC championship bid is theirs. If Tennessee loses to either team, and is in group of two-loss teams tied with Alabama, the Crimson Tide would take the SEC championship slot if it wins out even with Tennessee holding the individual head-to-head tiebreaker against Alabama.

An Arkansas win against Missouri Nov. 30 could also disrupt Alabama’s plans for an SEC championship. If the Razorbacks beat the Tigers, LSU would jump Alabama for an SEC championship bid in a five-way tie of two-loss SEC teams between the Crimson Tide, LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Tennessee.

Colin Gay covers Alabama football for The Tuscaloosa News, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at cgay@gannett.com or follow him @_ColinGay on X, formerly known as Twitter.