The SEC Tournament begins this week with Sad Wednesday. The Tide, as a Top 4 seed, has earned one bye and does not begin action until Friday night. Alabama has drawn a bit more forgiving path than if it had been the 4-seed.
The Tide’s half of the bracket features teams ‘Bama went 5-2 against, though both of those losses were road blowouts. And, perhaps worse, it has the other two best offenses in the conference on its side: Kentucky, and a team no wants to play right now, Florida.
Still, it has dodged a bullet by putting the two best defensive squads on the other side of the ledger, where Tennessee and Auburn will almost certainly face one another. ‘Bama went 1-3 against that lot. That Arkansas overtime win could not have been bigger.
And, for some good news: While there’s almost no chance that Georgia or Mizzou upend Florida, there’s a passing decent chance that A&M or Ole Miss can goonball Kentucky and bounce them out early.
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Worst case scenario to claim the tourney title: Alabama has to fight through Florida, Auburn/Tennesee, and Kentucky. Best case: just get past Florida. Most realistic? That’s probably also the worst case: Florida, Kentucky, Barn/Vawls…in that order, in three days. The Tide’s record against them: 2-5 (though there were four true road games in there).
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So, given the steep mountain ‘Bama has to climb, what are its postseason fortunes? Can ‘Bama play its way up or down on its seed line?
Let’s see where ‘Bama is projected, going into conference title week.
Well, the Tide’s fortunes took a bad turn this week, as Indiana State, one of Alabama’s good OOC wins, suffered a set-back. After Indiana State won the MVC regular season title, it dropped a heartbreaker in the conference final. So, the Sycamores — solidly a lock last week, are now praying that they get some help.
The NET really has screwed over midmajors, y’all. We’ve covered that before.
Also, two marginal teams — the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Texas A&M Aggies, both need to make some noise to solidify their shot at a bid. They’re on opposite sides, so that helps. But Aggie will certainly face UK in the second round, and ‘State draws Tennessee, assuming it can get past streaky shooting LSU.
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An early bow-out by one or both eliminates three of the Tide’s quality wins over tourney teams, and diminishes the SEC to just a six-bid league.
Really, much rides on the tournaments in relation to the Tide’s fortunes. Four wins that looked great last week may suddenly become relatively meaningless outside of the NET by Sunday. Blogging the Bracket has moved ‘State to the Bubble as a bye team, and bounced A&M out, failing a good run by either.
Chris isn’t alone here either. MSU is a consensus 9-10 seed entering the SECT, but only a handful of bracketologists have Aggie making the Dance, and that as an 11-seed.
For Alabama’s fortunes, we really need a State win over LSU, and then pray for an upset of UK over the Wildcats. That bolsters ‘Bama’s SOS greatly, and it improves the conference standing as an 8-bid league instead of one where only the top third made it, which would be the second-worst among the Power 5 leagues.
Here are the projected seed-lines for the Crimson Tide:
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CBS has ‘Bama a 4-line in the East, which is perhaps the least forgiving thing I’ve ever seen. Why? After a nasty trap game against red-hot shooting McNeese State, ‘Bama would face a defensive slugfest between App State or Texas Tech. That’s bad enough, but the East also sees Kansas as the 3, UNC as the 2…and everyone is staring up at No. 1 UConn.
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Do not want
For my money, gimme On3’s bracket. Sure, Alabama is a 4-line, and yes, it is in Houston’s region. But the teams are far more forgiving. For a start, the Tide faces App. State out of the jump, rather than a three-point mercenary. Said three-point mercenary gets to face Dayton, where Alabama could get an interesting matchup against an old face: The Flyers and Grantsketball vs. Nate — talk about a contrast in styles.
The rest of the pod is fairly gentle too: Florida is on the bottom half of the region, as is Marquette — with those teams projected to meet in Round 2. The other Big Bad, Duke, is also on the bottom half: 2/3rds of the very good teams take care of themselves before we even get to the Elite Eight.
Yes please.
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Lunardi’s at ESPN is almost as bad as Jerry Palm’s.
The Tide gets carted to the Midwest, where overall No. 1 seed Purdue, and the fouling lummox, are the top seed. But, he’s also thrown in Florida, Duke, a potential rematch with Clemson in the second round, three-ball FAU, very frustrating Vermont and Utah State teams, and two Big 12 teams…just for funsies.
And, in a composite of brackets, The Bracket Matrix has ‘Bama a four-across the board.
Can UA play its way up to a 3-seed? Perhaps. But I’m not sure that Alabama even wants to do that, given that most project a meeting with Duke or Florida to even get out of the Sweet 16. Four may actually be Alabama’s best spot to make some noise.
It certainly beats ‘Bama’s women, where ESPN has projected the Tide to face No. 1 Iowa, even they can even survive a dread 8/9 game. Though, it would be cool to see Clark do her thing.
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And, before we go, let’s take one final regular season look at the Tide’s metrics.
NET: 8th (4-9 Q1; 8-1 Q2); last week 7th KenPom: 11th (Off. 2nd, Def. 102nd); last week 8th (Off. 1st, Def. 101st) Evan Miya: 14th (Off. 4th, Def. 75th); last week 12th (Off. 5th, Def. 84th) Bar Torvik: 15th (Off. 3rd, Def. 106th); last week 7th (Off. 1st, Def. 73rd) SOS: 2nd ESPN BPI: 8th, last week 8th RPI: 7th, last week 7th RPI SOS: 5th, last week 3rd
That puts a bow on it for now. We’ll be back later in the week with some game breakdowns, special point spread picks, SEC tournament analysis and open threads.
Roll Tide!
#EverythingSchool #BTDAG
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Poll
What would qualify as a successful season for you at this point?
0%
Given all the personnel and coaching losses, it’s already been a successful season; everything else is house money.
(0 votes)
0%
Win a few in the postseason on neutral courts, maybe get to the second weekend?
MOBILE, Ala. (AP) — Dylan Fasoyiro scored 19 points as South Alabama beat Spring Hill 95-61 on Monday night.
Fasoyiro also contributed four steals for the Jaguars (3-2). John Broom scored 14 points and added nine rebounds and four steals. Myles Corey went 5 of 9 from the field to finish with 13 points, while adding three steals.
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Walter Peggs Jr. led the way for the Badgers with 30 points. Bo Barber added nine points and four assists.
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The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — The Southwestern Athletic Conference has issued one-game suspensions to a total of 16 Jackson State and Alabama State players over a postgame altercation and fined both schools.
The league announced on Monday that seven Jackson State players and nine Alabama State players have been suspended for the next game for the incident after Saturday’s game in Montgomery. Both schools were fined $25,000.
Alabama State hosts Prairie View A&M on Saturday, while the Tigers visit Alcorn State.
Dr. Jason Cable, Alabama State’s vice president and athletic director, announced that three of the players would be suspended for the season-ending game against Tuskegee on Thanksgiving Day as well. The suspended players were not named.
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Players engaged in shoving after the game and some punches were thrown.
“Acts of unsportsmanlike conduct have zero place in the sports of intercollegiate athletics and within the Southwestern Athletic Conference and we are extremely disappointed to have had consecutive weeks of football competition negatively impacted by these unfortunate occurrences,” SWAC Commissioner Dr. Charles McClelland said.
“We will continue to work with our membership to implement the necessary policies and procedures to deter this type of behavior. We will also continue to enforce a zero-tolerance policy for all acts deemed to be unsportsmanlike and contrary to the high standard of good sportsmanship we expect from all individuals associated with the athletics programs within our league.”
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There isn’t a much better helmet matchup in college football than the Oklahoma Sooners and the Alabama Crimson Tide. Two of the top five programs in the history of college football are now in the same conference, and they’ll meet for just the seventh time ever on Saturday.
Two teams used to winning, and winning a lot are on opposite trajectories right now. OU started 4-1, but they are now just 5-5 with two games left. Bama lost to Vanderbilt and Tennessee on the road earlier this season, but they’ve righted the ship with some key wins over the last few weeks against Missouri and LSU.
The all-time series between the two teams sits at 3-2-1 in favor of the Sooners. They first met in the Orange Bowl at the conclusion of the 1962 season. Alabama shut out Oklahoma that day, en route to a 17-0 victory. At the end of the 1970 season, they faced off in the Bluebonnet Bowl, with the game ending in a 24-24 tie.
There have been three matchups in the 21st century, beginning with a home game for the Sooners in 2002. Oklahoma won 37-27, highlighted by a couple of remarkable runs by Renaldo Works and a fumble return for a touchdown to seal the deal by Eric Bassey.
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The next year, the teams met in Tuscaloosa, with OU winning, this time by a score of 20-13. Of course, the 2003 Sooners would end up in the BCS National Championship Game that year.
Eventual Heisman Trophy winner Jason White (who was lost to a season-ending injury in the previous year’s game) hit Brandon Jones for a 47-yard touchdown in the third quarter on the game’s most series of plays. That throw immediately followed a gutsy successful fake punt call by Bob Stoops deep in his own territory.
But perhaps the matchup Sooner fans remember the most fondly happened in the Sugar Bowl after the 2013 season. The two-time defending national champion Crimson Tide were heavy favorites that night in New Orleans, but Oklahoma pulled off a huge 45-31 upset win.
Quarterback Trevor Knight had the finest game of his career, throwing for 348 yards and four touchdowns against the vaunted Tide defense. OU’s defense harassed Bama QB A.J. McCarron all night, with Eric Striker and Geneo Grissom teaming up for a scoop and score touchdown to end a potential game-tying drive. It was one of the best wins of the late-Stoops era in Norman, as the Sooners took down the No. 3 team in the country on a truly magical and unforgettable night.
However, Alabama currently has bragging rights in this series, as the two programs met in the 2018 College Football Playoff Orange Bowl semifinal six years ago. Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray and runner-up Tua Tagovailoa were primed for an offensive shootout in Miami, as Lincoln Riley and Nick Saban met for the first time.
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Unfortunately for Oklahoma, this game was essentially over thirteen and a half minutes in, as Alabama rolled to a 21-0 lead, stifling Murray in the process. It was 28-0 Bama before the Sooners finally scored in the second quarter, and the Crimson Tide kept OU at arms length for the rest of the night. Alabama won 45-34, showing off a complete, star-studded team.
Murray and the Oklahoma offense got the Sooners as close as 11 points on multiple occasions, but OU didn’t have a good enough defense to handle Tagovailoa and an excellent Tide offense. Riley was outcoached by Saban, who knew that Oklahoma couldn’t stop his team.
It wasn’t Murray’s finest hour in his final collegiate game before being selected No. 1 overall in the next April’s NFL Draft. Riley would coach the Sooners for three more seasons before bolting to USC. Tagovailoa, Saban and the Crimson Tide were defeated by Clemson in the national championship game, as Brent Venables’ defense put on a clinic against one of the best offenses in college football.
As the Sooners and the Crimson Tide prepare to meet again, Oklahoma is looking to get their fourth win in the series and improve to 4-1 this century. A performance like Knight’s at the quarterback position, coupled with a vintage 2018 Clemson performance from Alley and the defense would go a long way towards getting Oklahoma to bowl eligibility.
Contact/Follow us @SoonersWire on X, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oklahoma news, notes, and opinions.You can also follow Aaron on X @AaronGelvin.
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