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Roll ‘Bama Roll Bracketology: Can Alabama help itself with some wins in the SEC Tournament?

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Roll ‘Bama Roll Bracketology: Can Alabama help itself with some wins in the SEC Tournament?


The SEC Tournament begins this week with Sad Wednesday. The Tide, as a Top 4 seed, has earned one bye and does not begin action until Friday night. Alabama has drawn a bit more forgiving path than if it had been the 4-seed.

The Tide’s half of the bracket features teams ‘Bama went 5-2 against, though both of those losses were road blowouts. And, perhaps worse, it has the other two best offenses in the conference on its side: Kentucky, and a team no wants to play right now, Florida.

Still, it has dodged a bullet by putting the two best defensive squads on the other side of the ledger, where Tennessee and Auburn will almost certainly face one another. ‘Bama went 1-3 against that lot. That Arkansas overtime win could not have been bigger.

And, for some good news: While there’s almost no chance that Georgia or Mizzou upend Florida, there’s a passing decent chance that A&M or Ole Miss can goonball Kentucky and bounce them out early.

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Worst case scenario to claim the tourney title: Alabama has to fight through Florida, Auburn/Tennesee, and Kentucky. Best case: just get past Florida. Most realistic? That’s probably also the worst case: Florida, Kentucky, Barn/Vawls…in that order, in three days. The Tide’s record against them: 2-5 (though there were four true road games in there).

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So, given the steep mountain ‘Bama has to climb, what are its postseason fortunes? Can ‘Bama play its way up or down on its seed line?

Let’s see where ‘Bama is projected, going into conference title week.

Well, the Tide’s fortunes took a bad turn this week, as Indiana State, one of Alabama’s good OOC wins, suffered a set-back. After Indiana State won the MVC regular season title, it dropped a heartbreaker in the conference final. So, the Sycamores — solidly a lock last week, are now praying that they get some help.

The NET really has screwed over midmajors, y’all. We’ve covered that before.

Also, two marginal teams — the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Texas A&M Aggies, both need to make some noise to solidify their shot at a bid. They’re on opposite sides, so that helps. But Aggie will certainly face UK in the second round, and ‘State draws Tennessee, assuming it can get past streaky shooting LSU.

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An early bow-out by one or both eliminates three of the Tide’s quality wins over tourney teams, and diminishes the SEC to just a six-bid league.

Really, much rides on the tournaments in relation to the Tide’s fortunes. Four wins that looked great last week may suddenly become relatively meaningless outside of the NET by Sunday. Blogging the Bracket has moved ‘State to the Bubble as a bye team, and bounced A&M out, failing a good run by either.

Chris isn’t alone here either. MSU is a consensus 9-10 seed entering the SECT, but only a handful of bracketologists have Aggie making the Dance, and that as an 11-seed.

For Alabama’s fortunes, we really need a State win over LSU, and then pray for an upset of UK over the Wildcats. That bolsters ‘Bama’s SOS greatly, and it improves the conference standing as an 8-bid league instead of one where only the top third made it, which would be the second-worst among the Power 5 leagues.


Here are the projected seed-lines for the Crimson Tide:

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CBS has ‘Bama a 4-line in the East, which is perhaps the least forgiving thing I’ve ever seen. Why? After a nasty trap game against red-hot shooting McNeese State, ‘Bama would face a defensive slugfest between App State or Texas Tech. That’s bad enough, but the East also sees Kansas as the 3, UNC as the 2…and everyone is staring up at No. 1 UConn.

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For my money, gimme On3’s bracket. Sure, Alabama is a 4-line, and yes, it is in Houston’s region. But the teams are far more forgiving. For a start, the Tide faces App. State out of the jump, rather than a three-point mercenary. Said three-point mercenary gets to face Dayton, where Alabama could get an interesting matchup against an old face: The Flyers and Grantsketball vs. Nate — talk about a contrast in styles.

The rest of the pod is fairly gentle too: Florida is on the bottom half of the region, as is Marquette — with those teams projected to meet in Round 2. The other Big Bad, Duke, is also on the bottom half: 2/3rds of the very good teams take care of themselves before we even get to the Elite Eight.

Yes please.

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Lunardi’s at ESPN is almost as bad as Jerry Palm’s.

The Tide gets carted to the Midwest, where overall No. 1 seed Purdue, and the fouling lummox, are the top seed. But, he’s also thrown in Florida, Duke, a potential rematch with Clemson in the second round, three-ball FAU, very frustrating Vermont and Utah State teams, and two Big 12 teams…just for funsies.

And, in a composite of brackets, The Bracket Matrix has ‘Bama a four-across the board.

Can UA play its way up to a 3-seed? Perhaps. But I’m not sure that Alabama even wants to do that, given that most project a meeting with Duke or Florida to even get out of the Sweet 16. Four may actually be Alabama’s best spot to make some noise.

It certainly beats ‘Bama’s women, where ESPN has projected the Tide to face No. 1 Iowa, even they can even survive a dread 8/9 game. Though, it would be cool to see Clark do her thing.

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And, before we go, let’s take one final regular season look at the Tide’s metrics.

NET: 8th (4-9 Q1; 8-1 Q2); last week 7th
KenPom: 11th (Off. 2nd, Def. 102nd); last week 8th (Off. 1st, Def. 101st)
Evan Miya: 14th (Off. 4th, Def. 75th); last week 12th (Off. 5th, Def. 84th)
Bar Torvik: 15th (Off. 3rd, Def. 106th); last week 7th (Off. 1st, Def. 73rd)
SOS: 2nd
ESPN BPI: 8th, last week 8th
RPI: 7th, last week 7th
RPI SOS: 5th, last week 3rd

That puts a bow on it for now. We’ll be back later in the week with some game breakdowns, special point spread picks, SEC tournament analysis and open threads.

Roll Tide!

#EverythingSchool
#BTDAG

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Poll

What would qualify as a successful season for you at this point?

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    Given all the personnel and coaching losses, it’s already been a successful season; everything else is house money.

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    Win a few in the postseason on neutral courts, maybe get to the second weekend?

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    At least a Sweet 16 or better

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    CUT DOWN THE NETS, OR WE RIOT

    (0 votes)



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Alabama vs. Oklahoma live updates: College Football Playoff game score, predictions, latest

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Alabama vs. Oklahoma live updates: College Football Playoff game score, predictions, latest


Hello college football fans, and welcome to The Athletic’s live coverage of the 2025 College Football Playoff!

Yes, after a 2025 season full of an incredible amount of twists, turns, controversy and pure chaos, the second edition of the 12-team College Football Playoff gets underway tonight. Our opening matchup is a battle of blue-bloods whose first meeting this season contributed to that chaos, as No. 9 Alabama takes on No. 8 Oklahoma in Norman.

Follow along for live pregame build-up and the latest news, play-by-play updates and real-time analysis from The Athletic’s college football staff!



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Michael Wilbon claims Kalen DeBoer will leave Alabama for Michigan with loss in CFP opener

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Michael Wilbon claims Kalen DeBoer will leave Alabama for Michigan with loss in CFP opener


The College Football Playoff gets underway Friday night as Alabama heads to Norman to take on Oklahoma. But to ESPN’s Michael Wilbon, there’s even more at stake for Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer.

DeBoer’s name has been the subject of rumors throughout the offseason in the coaching carousel. Most recently, he received questions about the opening at Michigan following Sherrone Moore’s firing for cause, though he made it clear he intends to be at Alabama in 2026.

However, Wilbon didn’t sound as convinced. He predicted Alabama would not only lose to Oklahoma on Friday night, but DeBoer would also be on a flight to Ann Arbor to take the Michigan job afterward.

“Let me tell you about … two schools that could be in the coaching carousel after [Friday night],” Wilbon said Thursday on Pardon The Interruption. “Because when Alabama loses to Oklahoma – let me say it again, when Alabama loses to Oklahoma – the coach of Alabama, half the people in the state will want to run him out. And he’ll be on the carousel – oh, wait, that’s a G5 being flown to Ann Arbor, Mich., where he has said, ‘Oh, no. I ain’t got no interest in that.’ He’ll have interest [Friday night].

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“And then, Alabama will be in the coaching carousel because they’ll be looking for a coach. … The Alabama coach is going to have a job-on-the-line situation in 24 hours and then, headed to Michigan once he loses. And then, Alabama’s looking. Then, what are you going to say?”

During a press conference this week ahead of the College Football Playoff opener, Kalen DeBoer was directly asked if he intended to be Alabama’s head coach next season. He responded, “Yes.”

Earlier in that press conference, DeBoer received a question about the rumors surrounding him. He again spoke highly of his tenure at Alabama so far and made it clear he’s happy in Tuscaloosa.

“A lot of the same things I said before, a couple weeks ago, when asked really the same question, just feel completely supported,” DeBoer said. “My family loves living here. Just all the things that we continue to build on, love the progress. Haven’t talked with anyone, no plans of talking with anyone. So just, I think that’s a lot of what I said a couple weeks ago, and continues to be the same thing. 

“Feel strong about it. And our guys, if there’s been any distraction, I haven’t seen it, haven’t felt it. I’m really proud of the way they’ve handled whatever noise is out there. And again, we probably all season long, have dealt with enough noise to where it wouldn’t surprise me on how they handle this.”

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Scarbinsky: To even the score, Alabama has to believe it’s a better team than Oklahoma

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Scarbinsky: To even the score, Alabama has to believe it’s a better team than Oklahoma


This is an opinion column.

Alabama has been here before.

Not this Alabama quarterback or this Alabama coach or this Alabama team, but that script “A” brand. Those crimson helmets. That championship DNA.

Questioned. Doubted. Defeated in the regular season in its own sandbox by a team it would be forced to meet again in the postseason in that team’s back yard.

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Except the players and coaches who made up the 2011 Alabama football team didn’t question or doubt themselves after the Game of the Century went the wrong way. They didn’t feel defeated by LSU 9, Alabama 6 in Bryant-Denny Stadium.

When the polls and computers combined to put them in the BCS Championship Game in New Orleans, they didn’t look at it as if they were forced to play LSU again even though pundits were already talking about those Tigers as one of the greatest teams in college football history.

Just the opposite. Alabama felt fortunate. Confident. Almost arrogant. AJ McCarron, Trent Richardson and the rest learned something about themselves and their opponent on Nov. 5, 2011. The scoreboard said Alabama was the loser in that No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown. Their hearts and minds told them they were the better team.

Given a second chance, they proved it. They shut down LSU, shut up the critics and locked down another national championship. Alabama 21, LSU 0 told the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. The better team lived in Tuscaloosa.

That team believed it but needed a second chance to validate it. This team should feel the same way when it gets on the plane to kick off the 2025 College Football Playoff on Friday night.

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Round 2 of Alabama vs. Oklahoma is not the second coming of the Jan. 9, 2012 Game of the Century Part Deaux, but it is a reasonable facsimile. When their heads hit the pillow on the night of Nov. 15, after Oklahoma 23, Alabama 21, Kalen DeBoer and company had every reason to believe the scoreboard showed some facts without telling the truth.

Alabama ran 24 more plays and gained 194 more yards that day. Alabama possessed the ball 8 minutes and 56 seconds longer. Each team faced 13 third downs. Alabama converted five of them, two more than Oklahoma. Alabama committed three fewer penalties.

There was a serious disconnect between the box score and the final score until you looked at the turnovers. Alabama committed three of them, Oklahoma not one. The Sooners turned those turnovers into 17 points. Ballgame.

It’s one thing to feel like you gave your best effort but lost to a better team. It’s far more maddening to know in your gut that you were your own worst enemy.

Ty Simpson was better than John Mateer that day except for the killer interception that turned a promising drive into an 87-yard pick-six. Alabama’s underappreciated defense was better than Oklahoma’s celebrated unit except for the sudden change after Ryan Williams fumbled a punt and OU scored a touchdown two plays later.

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The field tilted decisively toward the Sooners only on special teams, but it was more than enough to give them the signature victory they lacked.

To supplement the punt coverage punchout, the nation’s best kicker, OU’s Tate Sandell, went 3 for 3 on field goals, including a 52-yard laser. Alabama’s Conor Talty had his only attempt partially blocked but it might not have mattered, and rather than writing his name in crimson flame, he torched his rep by berating his snapper in plain sight.

One play made here or there or a single mistake erased, and Alabama wins the game. Will the Crimson Tide make the same mistakes twice? They didn’t in January of 2012, the last time an Alabama team got a do-over after a defeat against the same opponent in the same season.

Don’t misunderstand. This 2025 Alabama team is not that 2011 team, but there is one striking similarity. This team is better than it showed on that unseasonably warm Tuscaloosa afternoon in mid-November. This team, pound for pound and player for player, is better than Oklahoma.

All this team has to do now is prove it, in the box score and on the scoreboard. Kadyn Proctor, Bray Hubbard and the rest have to get in OU’s face in OU’s house, make their mark and leave no doubt.

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No one has to believe it but them.



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