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Predicting the 2024 Alabama Crimson Tide Football Season: Auburn Tigers Preview, Game Picks, POLL

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Predicting the 2024 Alabama Crimson Tide Football Season: Auburn Tigers Preview, Game Picks, POLL


Last and least of the wild blind dart-throwing predictions of Alabama SEC opponents is the eternal soap opera in Lee County.

GAME 12, NOV 30: AUBURN TIGERS

Coach: Hugh Freeze (6-7, 3-5 SEC after one season at Auburn; 45-32 (58.4%) as a Power-5 coach, 89-49 overall in FBS, 138-0 in shoulda wons)
[SIDE NOTE: Bryan Harsin also went 6-7, 3-5 in his first season at AU.]

2023 record: 6-7 (3-5 in SEC, 5th in the West Division, lost the Music City Bowl)

Looking back: After three cupcake games to start the 2023 campaign, the Tigers dropped four straight to TAMU, UGA, LSU, and Ole Miss. This was followed by three wins in a row to the doormats of the league, MSU, Vandy, and Arky. Then, tragedy struck. The Auburn PlainsWarTigers were destroyed by New Mexico State at home, 31-10. Next was yet another chapter in the weird Iron Bowl series that ended in a Gravedigger W for the Tide. A sad listless loss to a Maryland playing without Lia Tagavailoa in the Music City Bowl ensured a losing season.

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Returning starters: 5 on offense, 4 on defense, punter, kicker.

Key losses: OC and DC thrown under the bus after one season, RB coach Cadillac Williams resigned, CB Nehemiah Pritchett (Round 5, Seahawks), S Jaylin Simpson (Round 5, Colts), CB DJ James (Round 6, Seahawks), DT Justin Rogers (Round 7, Cowboys), DT Marcus Harris (Round 7, Texans), WR Ja’Varrius Johnson (xfer to UCF), WR Jay Fair (to So Cal), S Zion Puckett (grad), LB Larry Nixon (grad).

Top returnees: RB Jarquez Hunter (909 yds, 7 TD), leading tackler LB Eugene Asante, leading receiver TE Rivaldo Fairweather (394 yds – NOT A TYPO!), KR Keionte Scott, PK Alex McPherson, QB Payton Thorne.

Top newcomers: first time OC Derrick Nix, scandal-ridden DC DJ Durkin, WR Robert Lewis (877 yds, 7 TD, from Georgia State), WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith (673-4, from Penn State), LT Percy Lewis (from Mississippi State), S Jerrin Thompson (from Texas), DT Isaiah Raikes (from TAMU), MLB Dorian Mausi (from Duke), DL Gage Keys (from Kansas), DL Trill Carter (from Texas), 5-star freshman WR Cam Coleman.

Strengths: Three of the top four running backs return led by preseason All-SEC Hunter (a fourth would’ve returned if not for getting shot in May)… Although many new faces, WRs should be better… Despite his checkered past, Durkin is an upgrade at DC… Punter and kicker are both back and are solid… Quite possibly the weakest non-conference schedule in all of FBS…

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Weaknesses: Auburn fans are excited about their freshmen, several of whom who could start or highly contribute. Their enthusiasm s not unfounded, but depending on 18 year olds to lead your team can be difficult when playing in the SEC… Don’t believe the hype. Thorne is medicore to sucky… OL could be an issue as they rebuild… The secondary lost a TON of talent (See Key losses above)… The defense has some good individuals, but overall not great. There will be depth issues… Season tickets did not sell out until a few weeks ago. Is fan support wilting?…

Outlook: These days, everyone gets a pass for Year 1. Freeze has been full of a lot of big talk, but now it’s time to back it up. Another 6 or 7 win season might have the Auburn fans rolling their eyes with “here we go again”. Hunter should have a big season. The defense is a little shaky. The Tigers likely beat someone they shouldn’t – like they always do – and conversely lose to someone they shouldn’t – like they always do. Who those two opponents will be is anyone’s guess.

Win Total Odds

Over 7.5 +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
Under 7.5 -140 (bet $140 to win $100)

2024 AUBURN FOOTBALL SCHEDULE:

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My Lawd! What a godawful shamelessly easy non-conference schedule. The 8th place team from the SWAC, a so-called “Power” team that is 0-1 in bowl games over the last four season, and quite possibly the two worst FBS teams in the nation for 2024. AU misses Texas, LSU and Tennessee, but still has trips to Alabama, Georgia, and Mizzou to go with hosting TAMU and Okie.

Aubie at home is always dangerous. Aubie on the road is a different animal. Alabama 48-24.

Sat, Aug 31 Alabama A&M – W
Sat, Sep 7 Cal – W
Sat, Sep 14 New Mexico – W – UNM just lost at home to Montana State.
Sat, Sep 21 Arkansas – W
Sat, Sep 28 Oklahoma – L – this one could get weird.
Sat, Oct 5 at Georgia – L
Sat, Oct 19 at Missouri – L
Sat, Oct 26 at Kentucky – W – This could be a toss up.
Sat, Nov 2 Vanderbilt – W
Sat, Nov 16 Louisiana-Monroe – W – projected 2.5 wins.
Sat, Nov 23 Texas A&M – L – this one could go the other way.
Sat, Nov 30 at Alabama – L

Poll

Regular season wins for Aubie in 2024:

ALABAMA SCHEDULE PREVIEWS:

Sat, Aug 31 vs Western Kentucky
Sat, Sep 7 vs South Florida
Sat, Sep 14 @ Wisconsin
Sat, Sep 28 vs Georgia
Sat, Oct 5 @ Vanderbilt
Sat, Oct 12 vs South Carolina
Sat, Oct 19 @ Tennessee
Sat, Oct 26 vs Missouri
Sat, Nov 9 @ LSU
Sat, Nov 16 vs Mercer
Sat, Nov 23 @ Oklahoma
Sat, Nov 30 vs Auburn



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Alabama asks Supreme Court to approve its racially gerrymandered maps

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Alabama asks Supreme Court to approve its racially gerrymandered maps


Alabama officially asked the U.S. Supreme Court this morning to pause a lower court’s ruling from earlier this week that blocked the state from using a racially gerrymandered map for this year’s midterms. 

That ruling, and Alabama’s filing today, essentially pushes the Supreme Court to show whether it will abide by its new Voting Rights Act standard, established in April’s Louisiana v. Callais decision, which said that maps can be struck if drawn with racial discrimination intentions.  

The map that Alabama wants to use this year was drawn by a Republican-controlled legislature in 2023 with the intention to discriminate against Black voters, as courts have found, including the Supreme Court itself that year.

In that racially gerrymandered 2023 map, Alabama allowed for only one majority-Black congressional district.

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However, shortly after its Callais decision, which severely limited the Voting Rights Act’s protections against minority voter dilution, the Supreme Court allowed Alabama to move forward with the 2023 map anyway, despite the fact that voting in this year’s primaries had already started. 

But, then a three-judge panel federal district court blocked that map on May 26, saying that it was drawn with the intent to rob Black voters of opportunities to elect candidates of their choice – as it had also found in an earlier ruling.  

Alabama asked this morning for the Supreme Court to rule by June 1, if not sooner, on its request to bypass the district court’s ruling so that the state can squeeze in a special election on the racially gerrymandered maps. Justice Clarence Thomas requested a response from Black voters by June 1. 

In its filing, the state argued that its maps do not intentionally discriminate against Black voters. It also argued that the Purcell principle – the legal doctrine that says changes such as redistricting shouldn’t be made close to an election – doesn’t apply to legislatures, which can “bear the responsibility for unintended consequences” among voters.

If the Supreme Court allows, a special election has been scheduled for August 11 – a timeline that state’s elections director Jeff Ellrod calls “aggressive,” given his office will have to reassign voters to the new districts, and reprint and resend out new ballots. 

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But if Alabama’s 2023 maps are approved, it would also mean that the Supreme Court won’t even stop gerrymanders where intentional racial discrimination has been documented, as called for in its Callais decision. 



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Alabama, South Carolina redistricting blocked

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Alabama, South Carolina redistricting blocked


What happened

Republican redistricting efforts in Alabama and South Carolina were blocked Tuesday, stalling President Donald Trump’s mid-decade gerrymandering campaign. South Carolina’s GOP-led state Senate thwarted a plan to cancel an ongoing primary and swap in a new map that would erase the state’s lone Democratic and majority Black district. In Alabama, a panel of federal judges temporarily blocked the state GOP’s proposed map, saying it was “tainted by intentional race-based discrimination.”



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Federal court again blocks Alabama congressional map, finds intentional discrimination against Black voters

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Federal court again blocks Alabama congressional map, finds intentional discrimination against Black voters


A three-judge federal court on Tuesday barred Alabama from using its Republican-drawn congressional map in this year’s elections, ruling that the map intentionally discriminated against Black voters — a conclusion the panel reached even after a recent US Supreme Court decision that made such claims significantly harder to win.

The court ordered Secretary of State Wes Allen to administer the rest of Alabama’s 2026 congressional elections using a court-drawn, race-blind map, the same one Alabama used in the 2024 election and under which voters have already cast ballots in this year’s primaries. Switching maps now, the judges said, would risk disrupting elections already under way. The order will expire if the Legislature passes a new plan.

“We cannot see our way clear to requiring Alabamians to cast their votes in the 2026 elections under a districting plan tainted by intentional race-based discrimination,” the judges wrote.

The ruling is among the first to apply a tougher standard the Supreme Court announced last month in Louisiana v. Callais, which overhauled the decades-old framework for evaluating Voting Rights Act claims. The justices had thrown out the panel’s earlier ruling against the Alabama map and sent the case back for reconsideration. After taking another look, the panel said its conclusion was unchanged: “We again cannot understand the 2023 Plan as anything other than intentionally discriminatory.”

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The dispute dates to Alabama’s redistricting after the 2020 census, which produced a map with only one majority-Black district even though Black residents make up more than a quarter of the state’s population. After the Supreme Court affirmed in 2023 that the original map likely violated the Voting Rights Act, the Legislature passed a replacement that again drew just one majority-Black district. The state conceded the new plan did not add a second district where Black voters could elect their preferred candidate.

Those two choices are connected. The Black Belt — a rural band of central Alabama named for its dark soil and home to a large share of the state’s Black residents — is too sparsely populated to form a congressional district on its own. The most direct way to draw a second district where Black voters could elect their preferred candidate is to pair Black Belt counties with the sizable Black population of Mobile, on the Gulf Coast. By keeping Mobile bundled with heavily white Baldwin County in one coastal district, the Legislature’s map removed that building block, leaving Black Belt voters split among majority-white districts.

The court found that the refusal, paired with a series of “highly unusual steps” pointed to the conclusion that the map was designed “to distribute Black voters across districts to dilute their votes, at least in part because they are Black.”

These steps included eight pages of “legislative findings” that lawmakers bolted onto the 2023 map, something the court said Alabama had never done in any previous redistricting bill. The findings declared it “non-negotiable” to keep the Gulf Coast counties together, cementing the arrangement that foreclosed a second Black district, yet pointedly declined to make the non-dilution of Black voting strength non-negotiable, quietly dropping that protection from the Legislature’s own longstanding guidelines even though vote dilution was the entire reason the session was being held. The findings devoted several pages to the Gulf Coast and its “French and Spanish colonial heritage” but described the heavily Black Black Belt in a few short sentences, and deleted language the state had earlier agreed to acknowledging that the region’s Black population descends from people enslaved there. And though the map existed only because the courts had ordered a second district where Black voters could elect their candidate of choice, the findings said nothing about such a district at all.

Alabama had argued that partisanship, not race, explained the map. But the panel said the record contained “zero evidence” of a partisan motive. It found that voting in the state remains driven by race rather than party, citing evidence that Black Alabamians hold conservative views on issues such as abortion yet vote overwhelmingly Democratic. “[I]f party politics drove voting patterns in Alabama,” the court wrote, “it is unclear why Black voters don’t support the party that aligns more closely with their values.”

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Allen, who has taken each of the prior injunctions to the Supreme Court, has already appealed.



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