LSU Tigers vs. South Alabama: Expert College Football Model Prediction

Brian Kelly and the No. 14 ranked LSU Tigers return to Death Valley on Saturday night with the program preparing for a non-conference clash against South Alabama.

The Jaguars head to town led by a fiery offensive duo of Gio Lopez and Fluff Bothwell propelling the program to a hot start this season.

A scoring tandem that has elevated South Alabama to one of the top offenses in the country, they’ll put LSU to the test in a Week 5 battle.

Here’s how to watch, the betting lines and an expert score prediction via the SP+ Model:

Date: Saturday, September 28, 2024
Time: 6:45 p.m. CT
TV Channel: SEC Network
City: Baton Rouge, La.
Venue: Tiger Stadium

LSU: -21.5 (-110)
South Alabama: +21.5 (-110)

LSU to Win: – -1650
South Alabama to Win: +950

Over 65.5 Points: -110
Under 65.5 Points: -110

*All odds via DraftKings*

We turned to the SP+ Prediction Model to give a better understanding of where the Tigers stand heading into this weekend against South Alabama.

The simulation favors Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers to come out on top over South Alabama in Week 5, as expected.

SP+ logged a prediction that LSU will defeat the Jaguars by a projected score of 42-23 and win the game by an expected 18.7 points.

The expert model gives the Bayou Bengals an 88% chance to come out on top over the Jaguars in Death Valley.

What is SP+? It is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

The SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage on the year with the latest round of predictions coming out this week.

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (44)
2. Georgia (13)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Tennessee
6. Ole Miss
7. Miami
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Utah
11. Missouri
12. Michigan
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Louisville
16. Notre Dame
17. Clemson
18. Iowa State
19. Illinois
20. Oklahoma State
21. Oklahoma
22. BYU
23. Kansas State
24. Texas A&M
25. Boise State

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Follow Zack Nagy on Twitter: @znagy20 and LSU Tigers On SI: @LSUTigersSI for all coverage surrounding the LSU program.