James Spann: Frost likely for north Alabama early Wednesday, Thursday mornings – Alabama News Center



COOL BREEZE: Cooler air continues to roll into Alabama and the Deep South this afternoon. Temperatures are in the 60s and 70s over the northern half of the state, with 80s to the south. Tonight will be clear and cool, with a low in the 40s and 50s.

Our coldest mornings this week will come early Wednesday and Thursday, when much of north Alabama will dip into the 30s for the first time this season. Frost advisories will be needed, and some of the colder pockets could be close to freezing. Highs will be in the 60s for much of the state Wednesday and Thursday, about 10-15 degrees below average. Dry air means sunny days and clear nights through the week.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Dry weather continues; expect sunshine in full supply Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 70s. And the long dry spell continues through next week.

Most of Alabama has not seen a drop of rain for the entire month of October; the last measurable rain at Birmingham was on Sept. 28, and the total that day was only 0.01 inch. The last significant rain was on Sept. 25, when the total was 0.61 inch. Could we go through the entire month of October with no rain?

This is the driest month of the year based on climatology, and it has happened before. Birmingham had no rain at all in October 1924 and just a trace in October 2016.

October brought less than a quarter of an inch in these years:

1938 — 0.05 inch
1991 — 0.07
1963 — 0.11
1939 — 0.17
1953 — 0.21
1978 — 0.22
1901 — 0.23
1904 — 0.24

Our tornado season begins in November (it runs through May), so we usually see frequent big rain events increasing then.

TROPICS: A well-defined area of low pressure (Invest 94L) roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited showers and thunderstorms. This system is embedded in a dry-air environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week.

The National Hurricane Center gives it a 60% chance of developing over the next seven days, and it is too early to know whether it will get into the Gulf of Mexico or affect any part of the U.S. coast.

ON THIS DATE IN 1909: An F3 tornado struck Pittsburg Landing and Stantonville, Tennessee, killing 23 people and injuring 80 others.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.