After taking care of business in the first two rounds, the Michigan Wolverines head to Chicago for a tough, but passable second weekend. An Elite Eight draw of either Iowa State (Kenpom No. 7) or Tennessee (No. 14) makes for an interesting matchup, but up first is the Alabama Crimson Tide, who sits 12th in Kenpom with the No. 3 offense but No. 60 defense.
Alabama
How To Watch: Michigan vs Alabama in NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
The Tide rolls into the Sweet Sixteen after crushing Hofstra and a JT Toppin-less Texas Tech, but faces its own star-player absence with the ongoing Aden Holloway saga. Michigan is nearly a double-digit favorite, but like a turbocharged Saint Louis, the Alabama offense can be the stuff of nightmares. Every game from here on out is a battle, though, and all things considered, the bracket is set up just fine for the Wolverines.
Sweet Sixteen: No. 1 Michigan (33-3) vs. No. 4 Alabama (25-9)
Date & Time: Friday, March 27, 7:35 p.m. ET
Location: United Center, Chicago, IL
TV/Streaming: TBS
These programs have actually not met in basketball since a neutral site Alabama win back in 2009. Of course, there have been a couple notable football encounters over the past 28 months, which makes it five games on the gridiron this century. It is fitting that these squads now meet in the Sweet Sixteen, as they are arguably the top two schools over the past decade when it comes to combined football and basketball success.
Alabama 2PT Defense: 48.2% (44th)
On paper, it looks like the Bama defense might be able to hang with Michigan’s elite interior shooting, but I struggle to believe the raw numbers. The size mismatch in this game will be apparent right away, as Aiden Sherrell is the only real big in the lineup with Charles Bediako no longer eligible (lol). While the Tide gives up a decent number of threes and plenty of assists, jumpers are not the way to go in this one.
There is a very real chance that the Wolverines just hammer the paint and put up ridiculous efficiency numbers. Aday Mara looks like the x-factor here, and if Sherrell gets in any sort of foul trouble, it might just be too much for the defense to handle. This may turn into a track meet (more below), but this game sets up well for Michigan to score whenever it wants down low.
Alabama 3PT Rate: 53.9% (1st)
With this potential problem in the paint, Nate Oats knows his squad will need to put up big numbers of their own, and like Jalen Milroe rushing the ball himself, the plan is no secret. This is not necessarily the most accurate three-point shooting team in the nation, but the volume figures are substantial. For Alabama to pull off the upset, it must trade threes for twos, and that — unfortunately — is a viable strategy on Friday.
The Wolverines absolutely must close out on all shooters and again entice their opponent to opt for shots inside the arc. Future lottery pick Labaron Philon is the biggest threat, both with his willingness to drive and ability to pass (5.0 APG), but really everyone on the floor is going to be an issue from distance. There have been instances this year where teams just cannot miss from deep, and a repeat of that would be a major concern for Michigan.
Alabama DReb: 67.3% (287th)
The Wolverines’ size advantage should also play a role on the offensive glass, as Alabama has been terrible in defensive rebounding. Though Michigan has fluctuated in its prioritization of grabbing misses, this does feel like the right opportunity to make the most of the offensive possessions with plenty of second-chance points being readily available without a ton of resistance.
Not only does the Tide struggle to clean up the boards, but it also owns takeaway numbers in the bottom-10 of the entire country, while Michigan’s ball security has quietly been very strong to close out the year. This sets up perfectly for a massive offensive output. The pitfalls are the same as always: fluky bounces, careless passes, and an over-reliance on threes. If the Wolverines can stick to their game, the scoreboard is going to be lit up.
Alabama Adj. Tempo: 73 (4th)
Even more than Saint Louis, Alabama wants to run, and when it does, it wants to chuck up threes. This is going to be such a fascinating game to watch, since obviously Michigan will be more than happy to do that going the other way as well, and the Tide’s absolute commitment to getting down the court is what could lead to all of the aforementioned offensive rebounding opportunities.
With this pace, Bama does not grab a ton of offensive rebounds itself, nor does it get to the line often. It does, however, get blocked A TON, which should be fun for all of the Wolverine bigs. How close this game is really comes down to whether or not Alabama’s threes fall. The Tide will run and will hoist up a ton of attempts; make a hearty amount and an upset is possible, but have a tepid outing and this could be a blowout.