Here’s the case against Alabama football getting a College Football Playoff spot

Alabama football’s path the College Football Playoff is out of its control.

The Crimson Tide has its ranking heading into the final bracket, sitting at No. 11 and likely in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth before the top 12 teams are officially announced Sunday

Alabama seems to be right in the mix for a CFP spot even with three losses. But should the Crimson Tide even be considered?

Alabama football CFP predictions

No matter if the Crimson Tide should be considered or not, Alabama remains a favorite to make the final 12.

In the penultimate CFP rankings before the final bracket is revealed Sunday, Alabama landed at No. 11. In this set of rankings, Alabama would be an 11-seed playing No. 6 Notre Dame for a quarterfinal date with SMU.

Alabama, a three-loss team, finished ahead of two-loss Miami and three-loss SEC teams South Carolina and Ole Miss. According to the CFP selection committee chair Warde Manuel, since none of those teams will play in a conference championship game, that order is “set.”

Before Tuesday’s CFP rankings, multiple outlets including ESPN, Sporting News and 247Sports had the Crimson Tide in the CFP as either a No. 12 or No. 11 seed facing teams like Penn State or Notre Dame.

Why Alabama football won’t make College Football Playoff

There is a chance the Crimson Tide miss the playoff entirely.

No. 8 SMU faces No. 17 Clemson Saturday for an ACC championship. If the three-loss Tigers beat the Mustangs and earn an automatic bid, Alabama could be pushed out in favor of two-loss SMU, which would have its second loss in a conference championship game.

The same could be said, albeit less likely, with the Mountain West championship game between No. 10 Boise State and No. 20 UNLV.

But even if Clemson or UNLV wins, Alabama, in the eyes of the committee, still has a fighter’s chance at a top-12 bid.

Here’s why the Crimson Tide shouldn’t.

Alabama lost to a six-win Vanderbilt team in a game it which it never held a lead. And after a road loss to Tennessee, the Crimson Tide had an abysmal performance against six-win Oklahoma, an outing considered among the worst offensive performances by an Alabama team in 20 years.

Three losses by 33 total points.

Yes, Alabama beat South Carolina head-to-head. But two of the Gamecocks’ three losses came by five total points while all three losses came by 29 total points. And South Carolina beat Oklahoma by 26.

Ole Miss beat Oklahoma by 12 and lost its three games to Kentucky, LSU and Florida by 13 combined points. The Rebels also beat Georgia and South Carolina.

The there’s two-loss Miami, with losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse by nine total points.

Strength of schedule may win out for Alabama. But when the Crimson Tide fell short, it fell short significantly, something other CFP hopefuls didn’t do.

When do CFP rankings come out?

The final CFP rankings will be released at 11 a.m. CT on Sunday after the weekend’s slate of conference championship games.

How to watch CFP bracket reveal

• TV channel: ESPN
• Stream: Fubo

The CFP bracket will be revealed between 11 a.m.-3 p.m. CT on ESPN.

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Colin Gay covers Alabama football for The Tuscaloosa News, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at cgay@gannett.com or follow him @_ColinGay on X, formerly known as Twitter.