Alabama
Here’s how we rank Alabama football, LSU, Texas A&M chances to win SEC West
Alabama regained a pulse on Saturday, and the three-headed race for the SEC West is back on.
Yes, Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M have one loss apiece. Each came against a nonconference opponent, though, and the West’s projected frontrunners won their SEC openers to restore order to the division.
Big games loom in November, when Alabama will host LSU and LSU will host Texas A&M, but we’ll gain clarity in the meantime. LSU is a slim favorite this week against Ole Miss before Alabama tries to atone for a 2021 loss to Texas A&M when it visits the Aggies in two Saturdays.
On this edition of “SEC Football Unfiltered,” a podcast from the USA TODAY Network, hosts Blake Toppmeyer and John Adams rank the SEC West’s favorites, in order from most likely to win the division to least likely.
Toppmeyer and Adams each picked LSU to win the division in the preseason, and they aren’t backing off, despite the Tigers’ too-close-for-comfort victory over Arkansas.
TOPPMEYER: Jalen Milroe tells the truth of Alabama football after reporter’s baited question
ADAMS: Imagine South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler in Josh Heupel’s Tennessee football offense
Here’s how they rank top three contenders for the SEC West:
1. LSU
The Tigers have the most experienced quarterback of the trio. Jayden Daniels has been on a torrid run the past few weeks. So has standout wide receiver Malik Nabers. Simply put, LSU’s offense is loaded. Its defense is an issue, though. Linebacker Harold Perkins hasn’t taken off as a sophomore, and LSU’s pass defense got exposed by Florida State’s Jordan Travis and Arkansas’ KJ Jefferson. Still, if teams with the most playmakers win divisions, then LSU is a worthy frontrunner.
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2. Texas A&M
Why do we like the Aggies in the No. 2 position? For starters, they host Alabama. Also, their skill-position players are more explosive. Alabama doesn’t have receivers to the caliber of Evan Stewart or Ainias Smith, and Aggies running back Amari Daniels is coming on, too. Both teams’ defenses should bottle up most opponents, but the Aggies gain an edge on Alabama because of their offense. Why not the No. 1 spot, then? Daniels offers LSU the quarterback advantage, and the LSU-A&M game is in Baton Rouge.
3. Alabama
In Alabama’s win over Ole Miss, it found a formula that should be good enough to beat most teams: Hang the hat on the defense, and let quarterback Jalen Milroe make plays with his legs and downfield shots. However, the offense lacks for playmakers beyond Milroe, and Alabama’s offensive line is a significant concern. Alabama must develop more offensive efficiency and improve at the line of scrimmage to become the top threat for the division.
Also in this episode
– We’re starting to believe Missouri (4-0) is for real, but our jury remains out on Kentucky (4-0). Whether the Wildcats are contender or pretender will be revealed in their next two games, against Florida and Georgia.
Week 5 picks!
Picks against the spread:
Florida at Kentucky (-3)
Toppmeyer: Florida; Adams: Kentucky
Georgia (-16) at Auburn
Toppmeyer: Georgia; Adams: Auburn
LSU (-2.5) at Ole Miss
Toppmeyer: LSU; Adams: LSU
South Carolina at Tennessee (-11.5)
Toppmeyer: South Carolina; Adams: South Carolina
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (-7)
Toppmeyer: Arkansas; Adams: Texas A&M
Lock of the week
Toppmeyer: Missouri (-13.5) at Vanderbilt; Adams: Troy at Georgia State (-2)
Records
Toppmeyer: 13-7-1 (3-2-1); Adams 6-13-2 (1-3-2)
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Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s SEC Columnist. John Adams is the senior columnist for the Knoxville News Sentinel. You can subscribe to their podcast, SEC Football Unfiltered, or check out the SEC Unfiltered newsletter, delivered straight to your inbox.