Giving Away Money: Despite two losses, Alabama still a favorite to make the College Football Playoff

We find ourselves 75% through the college football season, and so far, very little has come into focus for this first season of expanded action.

Owing to an exceptionally pampered schedule, the Ducks and Ohio State were practically gifted a freebie before the season even began. And, at least for now, Boise State has the best chances of the claiming the Group of 5 spot.

But, what does the entire picture look like, and what are the Tide’s realistic odds of winning out and making the field? Let’s discuss.

All odds are provided by FanDuel, who has generously sponsored this post today. Big ups to Fan Duel for that. Follow the link below for current odds and spreads:

https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/ncaaf?tab=cfb-playoff

The Favorites:

According to FanDuel, the best odds currently lie with Texas (-850), Oregon (-3500), Ohio State (-1000), Penn State (-600), Miami (-600), and Georgia (-1600).

Georgia (-1600) makes the most sense, for sure. Along with Alabama, this is the only ranked team to play a Top 10 schedule. Hell, with Alabama, it’s the only team with a winning record to play a Top 10 schedule. A lot of the Dawgs heavy lifting has been done, but their schedule is simply brutal. In back-to-back week, after already playing Clemson, ‘Bama, Texas, next up UGA travels to Oxford (No. 19 Ole Miss), and then hosts the No. 7 Vols. Even should Georgia split those, it’s hard to see how you keep them out, with wins over Texas, Ole Miss/Tennessee, Clemson. That would give them a 4-2 record against the Sagarin Top 30…the only other team with that record presently is someone we will discuss in a bit. Verdict: In, even with another loss. But no more than two losses.

Texas’s odds at -850 aren’t quite as good as you’d suspect, but the same easy schedule that spoiled them for half a season has come home to roost. The loss to Georgia is respectable enough, and it did eke out a W over Vandy on the road. But the ‘Horns are just 1-1 against the Top 30, and only have one more chance to make a real impression: Season finale against a very salty Texas A&M team. But there are other pitfalls lurking — that trip to Fayetteville isn’t a joke, and these two are long-standing rivals to boot. Another three-sack, two-INT performance by Ewers can get the ‘Horns beat at night in the Piggie Palace. But, playing the odds, you think at worst they split those two games, and make the SEC title game. There’s no way ESPN is leaving the Horns out if it can be helped. Verdict: In, even with another loss. But if UT drops both? They’re out.

Oregon: At 2-0 vs. the Sagarin T30, this is the best resume in the Big 10 (hard to believe, huh?)

Penn State (-600): Like Ohio State, the Nittany Lions just don’t have much of a body of work to point too. They have some decent wins over Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Illinois. But they’re just 2-0 against Sagarin 30, and only have one more game on the horizon to impress: this week, hosting Ohio State. Can they afford to lose that game? Maybe? Probably? But if / when they get in, it won’t be because of a quality body of work. Verdict: In, provided the only loss down the stretch is to Ohio State or the B1GCG.

Ohio State (-1000): Another soft schedule here, like Penn State. But, in some ways, it’s actually worse. Can you name the best win on the Buckeyes’ schedule? It’s No. 39 Nebraska. The Bucks are a woeful 0-1 against the Sagarin 30. They have a legit chance to finish the regular season with one quality win, make the B1GCG, and practically stamp their way to a home game. Would a three-loss OSU team get in? Better question. But for now, we’ll say: Verdict: In, provided they only lose one more this year (Penn State or B1GCG, probably not both).

Miami (-600): This team is so Basic Bitch Barely Above Average, and the ACC is going to straight up make sure they don’t lose too, if it can be helped. It’s fair to call them the Penn State of South Beach: A trio of decent wins, nothing to really point to as an accomplishment. If they run the table, they’re in…and would get there with just one ranked win. But, for that matter, Clemson is in the same boat (-500). Roughly the same schedule, a pair of T30 wins, but none over ranked teams. The Tigers do have a chance to impress, when they travel to No. 19 Pitt, but a loss there, or in the ACCCG dooms them. And I don’t think they get there. Verdict: Out. They’ll lose one of those: As for Miami, their only real “tough” game left is hosting one dimensional Duke. Elsewise, it’s smooth sailing, because this a two game schedule for the ‘Canes, and they only need to get to .500. Verdict: Miami is in with no more than one loss.

Boise State: The Broncos have one loss, in overtime, to Oregon. They also picked up a hard-fought road W over a very quality UNLV squad this week. However, the AP poll thinks much more highly of them than their entire body of work — it’s very reminiscent of Ohio State actually. Zero T30 wins, one decent win the 30s and 40s. But, the format being what it is, if the Broncos win out, their in. Fortunately for BSU partisans, the heaviest lifting has already been done. They don’t face a single team left with a winning record, and only a visit by Oregon State seems to be any threat. The other teams vying for the MWC are mostly manageable: Colorado State, San Jose State, San Diego State, Fresno State. Only a rematch with UNLV should be concerning. Verdict: Win and in. Lose and then we turn our eyes to Memphis or ULL, assuming they win out.

Slight Favorites:

You’d think with the buzzsaw that Notre Dame (-200) has been after its loss to Northern Illinois, that their odds would be better. But, like several other teams in this category, they’re just a slight favorite. The win over Texas A&M on the road looks good for sure. And the AP values the Navy W more than analytics do. But their schedule is just in the mid-50s, despite the 2-0 record against Sagarin T30. Still, it’s a better resume than anyone in the ACC, and in the B1G, only Oregon really compares with this thin body of work. The issue is that some teams who were supposed to be good simply have not. (Louisville, FSU, etc.). There is still a trip to Army on the schedule, as well as a game against USC. But on paper, at least, they should handle their business. But this team is dancing on the thinnest of ice; that NIU loss was really bad and the highs probably aren’t high enough to salvage if they drop another. Verdict: Win and in.

Then there is the trio of SEC teams that are slight favorites to get in: Texas A&M (-125), Alabama (-105), and Tennessee (-175).

• The Vols have the tough row to hoe — in their final five games they host rival Kentucky, whose defensive line can cause all kinds of havoc. They end their season on the road in Nashville, against a filthy Vanderbilt team. And to top it all off, they travel to Georgia, to face the Bulldogs. There’s no way they’re making it out of that unscathed. Any one of those games is an elimination round, and they could conceivably lose more than one. In fact, I think they do. Verdict: Out. But, if they run the regular season table, they’re in, no matter what happens in the SECCG.
• Texas A&M: The Aggies have already picked up two quality wins over LSU and Mizzou. The early season close loss to Notre Dame looks forgivable. And, barring a collapse, they’ll be in the SECCG. But they really need a win over Texas or in the SECCG. They can win both of those…and just as easily lose both. Don’t forget that sleeper road trip to South Carolina too. That team can beat them, especially at home. And a roadie to Auburn isn’t a gimme either. We joke about how dumb the Tigers are, but they have talent in the backfield and improbably one of the most explosive passing offenses in the country. Almost every last SEC game remaining is losable. And, should they need points, can they get them with that terrible passing game? I think they’re going to drop two along the way. Verdict: The offense is too limited, the remaining schedule too dangerous. Out.

Slight Underdogs:

Ole Miss (+250) — This is not the year the Rebels counted on, for sure. No ‘Bama for a change, but they’ve already been shut down by Kentucky and been outdueled in Baton Rouge. They have to win out, period, even if they’re likely shutout of Atlanta. By far the weakest resume of any SEC team on this list.

Kansas State (+225) — Kansas State has a better SOS than anyone else on this list so far. They are 3-1 against the Top 30, with the chance to pick up some more decent wins (Cincy, Arizona State). But, really, their season is going to come down to a must-win: Farmageddon, at No. 11 Iowa State to end the season. They can afford to lose a hypothetical rematch against BYU, for instance. But they need a defining win: they don’t get the love Ohio State or Penn State does for far weaker schedules with no signature victories: Verdict: Have to win out regular season. Can afford a BYU or ISU rematch loss.

BYU (+200) — This team is functionally K State, but has actually beaten K State to give them a good ranked victory. But they’re small market, niche, and many of those earlier good wins are looking weaker (Utah, for instance). They have to at least advance to the B12 game undefeated. They can probably afford a loss there against a Top 15 Iowa State or rematch with EMAW, but they can’t drop any of their remaining games. Verdict: In with an undefeated regular season.

LSU (+200) — Two losses, but just one in conference play. They host a very dangerous ‘Bama team that is licking their chops over Nuss’ propensity to throw wounded ducks, and one of the SEC’s worst rushing defenses. The offense can still be scary, sure. But their work isn’t done even if they get past the Tide. They travel to the Swamp, host the Sooners, and play a suddenly very dangerous Vanderbilt team. I just don’t think the Tigers can past all of that with their turnover issues, 50% passing in SEC games, and tissue-soft defensive line. They’d really like to have that USC game back, I bet. Verdict: Out. But, if they win out, they’re in — that will include the SECCG though. They can’t just make it; they have to hoist the banner.

Indiana (+175) — Sure, the schedule is the softest of anyone so far, but they’ve been very good getting there. The passing attack is the most ferocious in the Big 10, the defense is among the stingiest, they force a lot of turnovers, they’ve become suddenly very respectable on the ground, they have the league’s best quarterback — and, I think, they’ve got the best coach too. There is a two-game schedule for IU, functionally. A trip to the ‘Shoe in the penultimate week, and then the B1GCG. They have to win one of those. Preferably both, but running the regular season is a must given how weak the schedule has been or win the entire conference. They need one of those to happen. Verdict: In with an undefeated regular season and/or B1G Title

Alabama (-105)

The Crimson Tide are just about even money to make the playoffs, though still leaning towards slight favorite. Alongside UGA, they’ve notched four Sagarin T30 wins (and as of Sunday, are 4-2 in those contests.) They have the No. 3 SOS, and are 3rd in the FPI. It’s been a damn tough road, folks. We knew it would be. But, mercifully, the heaviest lifting is done. ‘Bama does have a road trip to Oklahoma, but that shouldn’t be insurmountable. Auburn’s explosive passing attack and Jarquez Hunter can cause some problems, but it is a winnable home game, Mercer is Mercer, and then there is the big one: LSU in two weeks in Baton Rouge. The Tide is likely to be shut out of the SECCG barring a lot of batshit insanity, and honestly it might be better to not make it. I don’t think three losses gets us very far. But, if the Tide can hold serve against OU and Auburn, and then get just one critical road win in Red Stick, they’re in. The schedule has been too brutal to not reward 10-2. Verdict: In, if ‘Bama can focus for just one month.

So, that’s where we stand entering the bye. ‘Bama is a slight lean to ease in on the back of a very difficult slate, a forgiving road ahead, and what comes down to a one-game season. I don’t want to say it’s all-or-nothing, but with the talent on this roster, the goals truly are “playoff-or-bust.” Let chaos unfold around us, but we need that win in Baton Rouge like a dying man needs water.

Hope for the best, and Roll Tide.

What say you?

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