DRY, MILD MONDAY: With a partly sunny sky, we are forecasting a high in the upper 70s for north Alabama today, with low 80s for the southern counties. The average high for Birmingham on Nov. 4 is 69.

Moisture will increase in coming days, and we will bring in a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and each day through Friday as a surface front stalls out just to the northwest. Rain distribution won’t be very even, but any one spot will see a 40-50% chance of seeing rain each day. Highs will stay between 77 and 81 degrees across Alabama.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: There is a huge amount of uncertainty due to model differences in handling the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The American Global Forecast System model suggests Saturday will bring widespread, beneficial rain, while the European global model shows little rain as it keeps the tropical system far to the southwest. We will have much better clarity over the next 36-48 hours; for now, we will mention a chance of rain Saturday, with a trend toward drier weather Sunday. Highs over the weekend will be in the 70s.

TROPICS: Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is in the Caribbean, about 260 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. Winds are 35 mph, and the system is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael over the next 24 hours.

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast track brings it over the western tip of Cuba as a Category 1 hurricane Wednesday, and into the southern Gulf of Mexico Thursday. From there, weakening is likely due to cooler sea-surface temperatures and stronger winds aloft, producing shear. It is too early to know whether Alabama will see beneficial rain; it is just one possibility. We will have much better clarity once the system becomes organized and we get dropsonde data from hurricane hunters.

ON THIS DATE IN 1935: A Category 2 storm called the Yankee Hurricane affected the Bahamas and south Florida. The storm remains the only tropical cyclone to hit Miami from the northeast in November.

ON THIS DATE IN 1985: The remnants of tropical storm Juan dropped 10 to 19 inches of rain on West Virginia and surrounding states, causing 62 deaths. A maximum rainfall amount of 19.77 inches was recorded near Montebello in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Virginia. The flood in West Virginia was considered the worst in the state’s history.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.

Three Alabama schools, including a 2023 state runner-up, have been fined and forced to forfeit a number of games for playing an ineligible player during the 2024 season. All three will miss the playoffs as a result.

Coosa Christian, located about an hour northeast of Birmingham, lost its shot at another state championship berth after the Alabama High School Athletic Association (AHSAA) discovered that the school did not fully report how many games an ineligible player competed in, according to a story by The Gadsden Times.

The AHSAA previously forced the private school to forfeit a victory against Cleveland High for violating the Coaching Outside the School Year rule. Now, the Conquerors must forfeit additional wins against Susan Moore, Falkville, Southeastern and Cold Springs as the ineligible player was found to have competed in at least five contests.

The five forfeitures are a huge blow to Coosa Christian, whose final regular-season record drops from 9-1 to 4-6. More damaging, however, was the forfeits dropped the Conquerors from 6-0 in Class 2A, Region 6 to 1-5. Coose Christian last season finished as Class 1A state runner-up and was a favorite for the Class 2A state title this year.

Only the top four teams in each region in AHSAA football advance to the state playoffs. Coosa Christian slipped from first to sixth with the forfeits. The top four schools in the region now are Southeastern, Falkville, Susan Moore and Cold Springs.

The AHSAA announced that the school has been placed on restrictive probation through the end of the 2025 season, meaning the school may miss next year’s playoffs as well if it does not meet certain conditions.

In Birmingham, Fultondale High School has been forced to forfeit three regional games by the AHSAA after playing ineligible players in violation of the association’s transfer rule, according to a report by WBRC Channel 6 News.

The forfeitures against Class 4A, Region 5 opponents Hamilton, Fayette County, and Cordova drops the Wildcats to 3-6 overall, 2-5 in the region. Fultondale is in fifth place in the region currently and will miss the 2024 playoffs.

The top four schools in the region now are Good Hope, Dora, Hamilton and Fayette County.

Further south in Troy, Charles Henderson High School has been forced to forfeit five games and placed on probation for one year by the AHSAA for violating an AHSAA transfer rule, per a story by .

An eligible player was found to have competed in Class 5A, Region 2 wins against Andalusia, Eufaula, Greenville, Carroll and Headland. The forfeitures drop Charles Henderson from 5-1 to 0-6 in the region, knocking the Trojans out of the playoffs.

The top four schools in the region are Montgomery Catholic, Andalusia, Eufaula, and Greenville.

Earlier this season, Pike Liberal Arts was forced to forfeit six wins by the AHSAA for violating the transfer rule, knocking the Patriots out of the playoffs, per a story by . An ineligible player competed in all six contests, per a story by the Tuscaloosa News.

Three of the six forfeitures were Class 2A, Region 3 games, dropping the Patriots to 0-9 overall, 0-6 in the region. Pike Liberal Arts then fell to Loachapoka, 40-17, to finish the year at 0-10.

Pike Liberal Arts made its debut in the AHSAA this season after competing in the Independent classification the last two years.

— Jeff Gardenour | jgardenour1962@gmail.com | @JMarkG1962