ESPN predicts every game outcome on Alabama 2024 schedule

The Kalen DeBoer era will officially kick off when the Alabama Crimson Tide take the field against Western Kentucky in their season opener on Aug. 31.

The much-anticipated debut for the first-year Alabama head coach comes after he took Washington to the national championship game this past season. Replacing Nick Saban is a tall task for any coach, but DeBoer’s past success speaks for itself with only 12 losses on his head coaching record. Still, many are curious to see how Alabama fares during his first season leading the program.

Before his inaugural season as the Crimson Tide head coach, ESPN analystics has predicted the outcome of every Alabama game this season, via its matchup predictor.

Aug. 31: Alabama vs. Western Kentucky – 97.4% chance of win

DeBoer’s first mission as Crimson Tide head coach will be to topple the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers inside Bryant-Denny Stadium in front of what is likely to be a curious Crimson Tide fanbase. ESPN is predicting a win heavily in Alabama’s favor, as they’re 31-point betting favorites, per ESPN Bet.

He only gets one shot at a first impression — we’ll see if he can make the most of it.

Sept 7: Alabama vs. South Florida – 96.2% chance of win

Last season’s matchup against USF was a bit of a fever dream. Now Notre Dame walk-on wide receiver Tyler Buchner started at quarterback for the Crimson Tide defeated the Bulls 17-3 on neutral territory.

2024’s edition of this matchup will happen on the Crimson Tide’s home turf. This time, the final score is not expected to be so close according to the matchup predictor.

Sept. 14: Alabama at Wisconsin – 81.3% chance of win

DeBoer’s first road trip as Alabama’s head coach, the Crimson Tide are still heavily favored in front of a crowd packed full of Wisconsin faithful.

Alabama hasn’t played in Camp Randall Stadium since November of 1928. However, the Tide won the most recent bout in Sept. 2015, which saw the Badgers fall 35-17 in Dallas as Derrick Henry rushed for 147 yards and three touchdowns.

Sept. 28: Alabama vs. Georgia – 40.9% chance of win

Arguably the biggest blockbuster game of the regular season, preseason No. 5 Alabama will take on preseason No. 1 Georgia in Tuscaloosa for the first time since 2020. This matchup will not only have implications for the SEC Championship race, but could play a hand in the how the playoff committee handles the CFP seedings.

Alabama is 23-13-4 all-time against the Bulldogs at home and have won seven on the last eight games in the rivalry overall. This is the only game that ESPN’s matchup predictor does not favor the Tide.

Oct. 5: Alabama at Vanderbilt – 89.8% chance of win

According to ESPN’s matchup predictor, Alabama’s game against Vanderbilt in October is the easiest road game on their schedule, giving the Crimson Tide a near 90 percent chance to defeat the Commodores at home.

Alabama hasn’t lost to Vanderbilt since 1984.

Oct. 12: Alabama vs. South Carolina – 86.2% chance of win

The midway point in the season, DeBoer should be settled into his role by this point. How his team performs remains to be seen — but a strong performance against South Carolina could set the Crimson Tide up nicely for the upcoming rough patch in their schedule.

However, Alabama can’t get caught looking ahead at what’s next. Any matchup against an SEC opponent could be considered a trap game down the stretch.

Oct. 19: Alabama at Tennessee – 58% chance of win

DeBoer might not have been around for 2022’s loss to Tennessee inside Neyland Stadium, but he doesn’t want Alabama fans to relive it, either. The 52-49 loss, which resulted in uprooted goal poasts during the postgame field-storming, was Nick Saban’s final trip to Knoxville.

Alabama bounced back last season to dispatch of the Vols last year 34-20 and have won 16 of the last 17 matchups in the rivalry.

Oct. 26: Alabama vs. Missouri – 70% chance of win

Missouri‘s Luther Burden might be the most dynamic offensive weapon the Crimson Tide are scheduled to face this season. Proving to be an elite performer at the wide receiver position, Alabama defensive backs may have their work cut out for them. Afterall, Missouri won 11 games last season and capped it with a bowl win over Ohio State.

If the Crimson Tide aren’t careful, Eli Drinkwitz and company could make a massive statement in Tuscaloosa come late October as ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Alabama a 70% chance of winning the game at home — the lowest mark at home since Georgia.

Nov. 9: Alabama at LSU – 63.3% chance of win

ESPN’s matchup predictor predicts this game to be similar to the Tennessee road game, but gives Alabama a slight edge with a 63.3% chance of leaving Death Valley with a win.

LSU also knocked off Alabama during that 2022 season, which the Crimson Tide avenged last year as well. Still, coming off a tough stretch of schedule LSU could give Alabama all they can handle on the road.

Nov. 16: Alabama vs. Mercer – 99% chance of win

Coming off consecutive matchups against Tennessee, Missouri and LSU, Alabama gets to enjoy a home game against Mercer. This is the game they’re most likely to win this season, according to ESPN’s percentage data.

Two weeks before the Iron Bowl — this one could get ugly.

Nov. 23: Alabama at Oklahoma – 51.2% chance of win

Alabama will play Oklahoma in Norman for the first time since 1970 later this year. ESPN analytics believe the Crimson Tide will narrowly escape with a victory in this season’s matchup.

How Texas and OU will adapt to their new SEC environment in year one remains to be seen — but a matchup against Alabama at home in Novemeber is the ultimate way to test yourself against a team that is expected to be one of the best the conference has to offer. Despite this, Alabama is the favorite, even if by a couple of percentage points.

Nov. 30: Alabama vs. Auburn – 80.1% chance of win

The Iron Bowl gave college football fans one of its most memorable moments of the 2023 season when Jalen Milroe hit Isaiah Bond in the back of the end zone for the game-winning touchdown on the road, stunning the Auburn fans inside Jordan-Hare Satdium.

This time around, they’re in Tuscaloosa where the Crimson Tide are heavily favored against their in-state rival as DeBoer and company look to ride into the postseason on a high note.