BYU Initial Sweet 16 Preview: First Look at Alabama and Saint Mary’s

BYU is going to the the Sweet 16 for the first time in 14 years. 11 months after Kevin Young was hired, BYU’s basketball program is going to heights quicker than even the most optimistic fan could have imagined.

BYU will travel to Newark, NJ for a Sweet 16 game next Thursday versus the winner of Alabama-Saint Mary’s. The two teams play each other Sunday at 6:10 ET on TNT.

Below is a quick primer on what each team does and what BYU would expect.

Alabama Overview

KenPom: 6

Record: 26-8

PPG: 91.1 — #1 in NCAA

The Crimson Tide were a final four team last season and play one of the most entertaining brands of basketball in the country. According to KenPom, Bama is #1 nationally in tempo and play at the fastest tempo for any power conference team in college basketball since Washington in 2016. Alabama ranks fourth nationally in offensive KenPom efficiency. Similar to BYU, Alabama plays a deep rotation and goes 10 players regularly.

The headliner is Preseason First-Team All American Mark Sears. The 6-foot-1 fifth-year senior averages 19 points and averages 7 three-point attempts and 7 free throw attempts per game. After shooting 43.6% from three last year, Sears has dipped to 33.5% this season.

Four other Alabama players average double figures. They have shooters, guys that attack the rim, and size. They are talented, big, and athletic. Alabama is ranked fourth in KenPom offensive efficiency and have scored 100+ points eight times.

Defensively, Alabama has solid numbers but have been exposed a handful of times. They rank 7th in the SEC in defensive KenPom efficiency and prioritize taking away the three ball. Opponents in SEC play shot 34% of their field goal attempts from three, which is the lowest rate in the league. Similar to Wisconsin, Alabama does not prioritize turning the ball over. They are 350th nationally in defensive turnover percentage and have the lowest defensive turnover rate in the SEC, turning over opponents on 13.5% of their possessions. Wisconsin did not put much pressure on BYU’s ball handlers, and Egor Demin and the rest of BYU’s team carved them up.

Alabama trailed in the second half to 15 seed Robert Morris, but ended up winning 90-81. Alabama ended the season a bit rocky. After starting 21-3, they ended the season 4-5 before the NCAA Tournament.

A BYU game against Alabama could be in the 100s with both teams tempo and offensive efficiency. Alabama regularly play in the 90s, and had games like a 102-97 win over Kentucky and 110-98 loss to Missouri.

Saint Mary’s Overview

KenPom: 22

Record: 29-5

The Gaels are the Gaels we saw for over a decade in the WCC. They are bottom 5 nationally in tempo, patient in the halfcourt, and tough defensively. They rank 7th nationally in KenPom defensive efficiency and 59th in offensive efficiency.

Saint Mary’s had losses to Arizona State, Utah State, and Boise State in non-conference, but mowed through WCC regular play with a 17-1 record and conference championship. Their top players are familiar faces. Guard Augustas Marciulionis is a two-time WCC player of the year and leads the Gaels with 14 points and 6 assists. His running mate is fifth-year senior Mitchell Saxen (he’s still around!), who averages 12 points and 8 rebounds. 6-foot-8 Arizona transfer Paulius Muraukas is the second leading scorer, averaging 12.2 points and 8 boards. He and Saxen form a physical front court.

Six total players average at least 8 points for the Gaels. Saint Mary’s is not a great shooting team — shoot just 32.5% from three — but they limit turnovers and are second nationally in offensive rebound percentage, rebounding 40% of their misses. Saxen and Muraukas either grab rebounds or are elite at getting their hand on the ball for a tap out. If BYU played Saint Mary’s, I expect they would pack the paint and limit the Gaels’ big man tandem.

Saint Mary’s beat Vanderbilt 59-56 in their first round game, overcoming a 12-point deficit.

Saint Mary’s-Alabama Game Overview and What BYU Can Expect in Sweet 16

This game is fascinating. Both teams play completely different styles. Alabama will mercilessly push the tempo and the Gaels will do everything their power to make this a halfcourt game. KenPom predicts a 77-72 Alabama win while Vegas favors the Tide by 5.5 points. Both teams would give BYU challenges. Stylistically Saint Mary’s is a tougher matchup with their plodding style, but Alabama has more talent and would probably be the tougher game.