Alabama vs. Auburn score prediction by expert football model

Iron Bowl 2025 is here, as SEC title and playoff hopeful Alabama hits the road looking to avoid a third loss against rival Auburn, hoping to simply become bowl eligible.

Alabama has never been ranked in the top-ten and lost on the road against an unranked Auburn team, and this time around the Tide have a shot at reaching the SEC Championship Game.

Auburn has history on its side in a way, losing by a combined five points in their last two home games against the Crimson Tide, whose playoff hopes are considerably shakier now with two losses.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the SP+ computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

The model predictably likes the Crimson Tide over the Tigers, but in a very close game.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Auburn by a projected score of 27 to 21 and will win the game by an expected margin of 6.0 points in the process.

The model gives the Crimson Tide a solid 65 percent chance against the Tigers outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 349-336 against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-31 (48.3%) in its picks against the spread.

The betting markets also favor the Crimson Tide, but by less than a touchdown on the road.

Alabama is a 5.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -220 and for Auburn at +184 to win outright.

Ty Simpson has been the backbone of an efficient Alabama aerial attack, but has seen his efficiency slip in recent weeks heading into what could be an intense road environment.

Auburn does not have the same skill at quarterback, but have proven successful at running the football, albeit now into the teeth of a much improved Alabama run defense.

College Football HQ predicts: Alabama wins, and covers.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks