Alabama faces severe storms, flood risk in 2026, AccuWeather warns

AccuWeather’s 2026 long-range forecast shows a shift in the U.S. severe weather pattern.

While nationwide tornado activity is expected to decrease slightly compared to last year, Alabama remains at risk for damaging thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and flash flooding. 

Here’s what to know about AccuWeather’s long-range forecast and how Alabama will be affected.

Will Alabama see fewer tornadoes in 2026?

According to AccuWeather, the U.S. could see 1,050 to 1,250 tornadoes this year, roughly 20-30% fewer than in 2025. For Alabama, this means a slightly lower tornado threat, but residents should not let their guard down.

“Even with fewer tornadoes than last year, this is not a quiet season,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex Duffus. “Flash floods and severe thunderstorms can impact large areas, causing serious damage.”

Which areas of Alabama are most at risk?

The northern and central parts of the state, including Huntsville, Decatur and surrounding counties, face a higher risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail.

Birmingham, Tuscaloosa and Montgomery could see heavy downpours and flash flooding, while cities in coastal counties may experience localized flooding from repeated thunderstorms.

Why is Alabama at risk this spring?

Several factors increase Alabama’s 2026 severe weather risk:

• Warm Gulf waters: provide extra moisture for storms.
• Weaker upper-level jet stream: limits tornado setups but allows organized thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and flooding.
• Shifting precipitation patterns have increased extreme rainfall events in the U.S. by 70% since 1995, raising flash flood concerns.

How can Alabama residents prepare for severe weather?

Experts recommend taking action now before the severe weather season starts:

• Review emergency plans
• Restock emergency supplies
• Stay informed
• Check insurance coverage to ensure policies include flood and wind damage protection

What to watch March to May

Alabama should expect multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms from March through May. Early in the season, cooler air may limit tornadoes, but heavy thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail and flash flooding are likely. By late April and May, warmer, humid air from the Gulf could fuel more intense storms.

When is peak tornado season in Alabama?

Tornadoes can happen any time of the year, however, peak tornado season in Alabama is typically the months of March, April and May. 

There is a second tornado season that happens in the fall between the months of November and December. 

Jennifer Lindahl is a Breaking and Trending Reporter for the Deep South Connect Team for USA Today. Connect with her on X @jenn_lindahl and email at jlindahl@usatodayco.com.