Politics
What Iowa can teach us about courting Latino votes in 2024
Set among rolling hills about an hour from the Nebraska border, this picturesque farm town is filled with brick buildings exuding 19th century charm. It also happens to be the most Latino town in the state, with Latinos making up at least half the population.
But when 385 people filtered into the theater at Denison High School for the Republican caucus this week, they mostly resembled caucusgoers found elsewhere in Iowa: farmers with long beards, retirees wearing smiles and heavy coats. Almost all were non-Latino whites.
Near the front of the theater, Vicenta Lira Cardenas and her husband, Ismael Cardenas, were two of the rare exceptions. They smiled politely when they made eye contact with other caucusgoers, and, as local GOP leaders began the proceedings, Vicenta whispered the occasional translations to Ismael.
Vicenta Lira Cardenas, a custodian at Denison High School, rolls out basketballs for a game at the school gym in Denison, Iowa.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Since 2020, when then-President Trump made double-digit gains with Latino voters across the country, Republicans have bragged that a major realignment is underway. Democrats have long relied on winning about 65% of the Latino vote. If Republicans can get that number closer to 50%, they could keep the Democrats out of the White House for a generation.
While Iowa may not be a center of Latino life like California or Texas, the dismal Latino turnout at the caucus in Denison did not bode well for the Republican Party’s efforts to expand its ranks.
Even so, conversations with people in town show the GOP has a real opportunity and that many Latinos are deeply unsatisfied with President Biden.
Workers leave after their shift at a Smithfield meatpacking plant in Denison, Iowa. Meatpacking plants employ thousands and are one of the main reasons Latinos have come to Denison.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
This was Vicenta’s first caucus since she immigrated from Michoacán, Mexico, in 1995. But she’s voted in plenty of general elections. In 2008, she enthusiastically supported Barack Obama, believing in his pledge to normalize status for millions of undocumented people in his first 100 days. She voted for him again in 2012, but by 2016 when that had not been achieved, she turned away from the Democrats.
“What Trump says is what Trump does. If he promises something, he is going to do it,” Ismael, soft-spoken, said in Spanish after the caucus had ended.
“That’s it, exactly,” said Vicenta. “Democrats talk so eloquently, but their actions are not good. The way Trump talks may not be nice. I think, at times, he has said racist things. But his actions, his policies are good. And he keeps his promises.”
A water tower marks the town of Denison, population about 8,000, in western Iowa.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Denison is not a perfect sample of how Latinos across the county will vote in 2024 for the same reason Portland, Ore., is not a perfect sample of how white voters will vote. Local industry, culture and even ecology shape political inclinations. Expecting Venezuelan Americans in Tampa, Fla., and Salvadoran Americans in Oxnard to vote the same way is as wrongheaded as expecting white voters in Portland to cast ballots the same as white voters in a Texas oil town like Midland.
But some factors that predict how Latinos might vote are unique to Latinos, and they strongly influence life in Denison. Here are some questions to ask to begin to understand politics in a Latino community: How recently did families here immigrate? What industries employ them? Do they face intolerance in their daily lives?
In Denison, jobs at the meatpacking plants have brought immigrants, like Ismael, from across Latin America. The town’s Latino population is young, working-class, and made up mostly of immigrants.
Patricia Ritchie, originally from Mira Loma, Calif., was one the first Latinas in Denison when her family moved there in 2004,
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
When Patricia Ritchie moved to Denison in 2004 after a childhood in Mira Loma, Calif., and two combat tours in the Army, she was one of the first Latinas in town.
“Are you here to work at the plant?” the front-desk person at Denison High asked when Ritchie stopped by to promote her services as a professional English-Spanish interpreter. Ritchie, who had moved with her husband to his family farm, felt profiled. “Back then, I didn’t even know what a plant was,” she said.
Since 1990, the Latino population of Iowa has grown more than sixfold, and Crawford County, of which Denison is the county seat, is at least 30% Latino, making it the most Latino county in the state.
The county is working-class and the sort of place where Democrats have struggled in recent years. Obama narrowly won Crawford, once a swing county, in 2008, but then it sprinted to the right. In 2020, Trump won almost 68% of the vote.
An image of Donald Trump in the front window of a home in Denison.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Trump’s appeals to working-class voters and his ability to channel class resentment won him enthusiastic fans in many Latino communities. Latinos are overrepresented among manual laborers and service professionals, and in majority-Latino oil towns in south Texas and farm counties in California, Trump significantly improved his numbers between 2016 and 2020.
That didn’t happen for him in Denison. Though Denison still went for Trump in 2020, it shifted a bit to the left. In the most Latino precincts in Denison, Biden improved on Democratic 2016 results by as much as 10 percentage points.
Ritchie — who says she’s “blue through and through” — said Democrats have had success organizing in Denison’s Latino community because Latinos here still face challenges with immigration status and racism — issues that don’t dominate Latino life the way they once did in some other parts of the country.
Polling has found that, nationwide, immigration is not even a top-five issue for Latinos, ranking far behind the economy (No. 1), healthcare and education. Issues of race and ethnicity rank even lower.
But the situation is different in Denison. The Latino population has grown rapidly, and some white residents — who tend to be older — have reacted with unfriendliness or racism.
“We say that, when it comes to Latinos, Iowa is 20 years behind the rest of the country,” said Ritchie, who for years has worked with the local government to provide bilingual services, including as a victim advocate for the police. She and others have tried to organize the community and educate Latino Iowans about their rights. She said that this organizing often takes place under the Democrat banner.
But Democrats may be losing their lead.
Downtown Denison, Iowa.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Lorena López came to Iowa in 1992 from Nicaragua on an exchange program for Nicaraguan journalists — she and other news broadcasters were hoping to learn how to use teleprompters.
López said she was one of three Latinos in town when she arrived. Now, she’s a pillar of the community: the editor of La Prensa, a successful Spanish-language newspaper for western Iowa. She’s been a frequent advisor to local and state government, and she’s well known around town. When townspeople address her in Spanish, they call her “Doña Lorena.”
But she still doesn’t always feel welcome.
“I still get that look from people. When you walk into the room, and they’re just like, ‘guácala’” — gross. “They give you a look of someone who wishes you weren’t there, that you didn’t exist,” she said.
Lorena López is the editor of La Prensa, a successful Spanish-language newspaper for western Iowa.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
That brand of xenophobia, coupled with the constant fear of loved ones getting deported, has traditionally pushed Denison Latino voters toward the Democrats, she said. (Though, like Latino communities nationwide, voter turnout here is low.)
When asked how she thinks her community will vote in November, she shook her head slowly.
“I think they’re going to vote for Trump. I really do,” she said.
She gave three main reasons: First, voters like Vicenta are not rare. “Latinos have a long memory,” she said. They hold a grudge for Obama’s unrealized goals on immigration — which were complicated by Republican opposition in Congress — and the fact that his administration deported more people, at a faster rate, than any other.
Under Biden, she added, a new anger has flourished. Families with undocumented members are furious that many recent border-crossers have been offered official — though temporary — parole status, and some, who made it into the asylum system, have gotten work permits.
“They have a lot of resentment for the broken system,” López said. “When I talk with them or I see them in church, they ask me, ‘How come they’re giving out employment authorization to people who just came here? Even though we’ve been here for so many years, we work, we have houses, we don’t have criminal records, and yet we still don’t have work permits.’”
Because Democrats have alienated some of their once-strong supporters, Republicans have a real opportunity, López said. Trump’s vision of conservatism — built around culture war issues, Christian nationalism and strongman politics — maps onto Latin American conservatism extremely well.
As an example, consider Yovan Cardenas. The son of Ismael and Vicenta, he had to grow up fast in Denison. By age 8, he was serving as an interpreter for his parents, helping with bank loans, checks for school field trips and bill payments.
Denison Police Officer Yovan Cardenas is running for county sheriff.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Like his mother, Yovan Cardenas voted for Obama twice. But slowly, as his mother shared what she had read on the news and Yovan talked about what he’d learned studying criminal justice the University of Iowa, the two came to agree that the values they had immigrated with from Michoacán fit in better within the Republican Party.
Vicenta was strongly against abortion and the legalization of gay marriage. The younger Cardenas admired Republicans’ strong rhetoric in support of law enforcement. Today, he’s a police officer in Denison.
“Republicans have the same values as Hispanics: God, family and country,” he said.
Yovan Cardenas said he believes that, armed with more complete information, other Latinos in Denison might make the same decision. But he acknowledges that Republicans in western Iowa have done little to nothing to share their message with Latino voters. There’s no door-knocking in their neighborhoods or multilingual campaign events.
According to López, that’s not an accident. In the last 20 years, she’s covered how Republicans have campaigned against the growth of the Latino population in this part of Iowa. Denison was long represented by the far-right Republican Rep. Steve King, a full-throated opponent of multiculturalism. “We can’t restore our civilization with somebody else’s babies,” he said in 2017, drawing praise from the Ku Klux Klan.
“This is my own opinion,” López said. “Republicans in Crawford County are very conservative, and they’re scared of other Republicans seeing them associating with immigrants.”
Yovan Cardenas has evidence to the contrary: A leader in the county Republican Party — who he said asked not to be named — recruited him to run for sheriff this year. If he wins, he’ll become the only Latino sheriff in Iowa.
“Me winning would be a 2-for-1 special: They would get a Spanish sheriff, and they could also get more members from the Hispanic community to become Republicans,” he said.
Cardenas understands that building those bridges will be hard. When he started supporting Trump, some other Latinos accused him of selling out the culture, of trying to be white.
Cardenas says he believes that attitude might come from an emotional place, one that has less to do with policies and platforms and more to do with hometown peer pressure. He’s heard a lot of things called “white” that have nothing to do with a political position, he said. In high school, he said, other Mexican Americans would call him “pocho,” a derogotary term, for doing things as innocuous as playing baseball, which he said other Latinos called a “white sport.”
How Latinos in Iowa vote will not decide the election in November. But Latino voters in six key swing states — Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada — could help determine who takes the White House.
In Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia, many Latino communities are similar to the one in Denison: more recent, working-class immigrants who are interested in messaging on immigration and multiculturalism.
In Nevada and Arizona, some Latino families have lived there since those lands were part of Mexico, and many constitute the ethnic majority in their neighborhoods and towns. These sorts of communities will probably prioritize issues such as the economy, inflation and border control.
Ismael Cardenas, seated next to two of his younger children, watches his daughter Gaby play basketball in Denison.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
But for now, with Monday’s caucuses just a memory, residents of Denison, Latino and non-Latino, got back to life in a small town.
On Tuesday night, back at Denison High for a basketball game, Vicenta looked on proudly as her daughter Gaby played on the varsity team. “She’s easy to spot,” Vicenta explained. “She’s the only Latina on the team.”
Vicenta, a custodian at the school, said she’s raising her kids to be ambitious, to be useful in their communities. Gaby is studying to go to college to become a doctor.
And Vicenta and her husband hope they’re setting an example by showing up to use their voices at local political events. By the end of the evening at the Denison caucus, Ismael had cast his vote for Trump, and Vicenta for Vivek Ramaswamy.
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The attorney who helped persuade the Supreme Court to strike down Hawaii’s private-property concealed-carry restriction on Thursday criticized the state’s reliance on a Reconstruction-era Black Code to defend the law.
In a 6-3 decision in Wolford v. Lopez, the Court held that Hawaii cannot require licensed gun owners to obtain express permission before carrying firearms onto private property open to the public. Gun-rights challengers dubbed the policy the “vampire rule” because lawful gun owners had to be “invited in” before entering businesses while armed.
“It is disgraceful that any state would rely on a law specifically aimed at taking away the Second Amendment rights or any constitutional right of Black Americans as it was at that time,” attorney Kevin O’Grady, who represented the plaintiffs, told Fox News Digital.
“And it’s not surprising, however, that Hawaii would rely on it as they are diametrically opposed to the Second Amendment. We fully expected that the Supreme Court would identify that as the kind of law that one absolutely should not look to determine whether or not something is constitutional because this is the perfect example of something which is not constitutional.”
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Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson speaks on stage during the “Ketanji Brown Jackson on Lovely One: A Memoir” panel at The Atlantic Festival in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 20, 2024. (Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for The Atlantic)
A major flashpoint was Hawaii’s effort to justify the law under the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen. Since Bruen, courts evaluating firearm regulations have generally asked whether modern gun restrictions are consistent with the nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation.
Hawaii cited several historical laws, including an 1865 Louisiana statute enacted as part of the post-Civil War Black Codes. The law made it unlawful to carry firearms onto another person’s property without the owner’s consent.
Justice Samuel Alito, writing for the majority, rejected that argument outright, calling the Louisiana statute a “tainted artifact” that was enacted to disarm newly freed Black Americans and leave them defenseless after the Civil War. He concluded the law “cannot be taken seriously” as evidence of the Second Amendment’s original public meaning.
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, however, argued in her dissent the Court skipped an important constitutional question.
Jackson did not defend the Black Codes, which she acknowledged were racist and used to oppress newly freed Black Americans. But she argued the Court should have first decided whether the Louisiana law itself violated the Second Amendment, or whether the real constitutional problem was that it was enforced in a racially discriminatory way.
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Todd Settergren handles pistols inside his display case at Setterarms gun shop in Walnut Creek, Calif., on Jan. 13, 2017. (Michael Macor/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)
“It might well be that the Black Codes are invalid inputs for Bruen’s test,” Jackson wrote, “but only if they violated the Second Amendment — which may or may not be the case.”
Instead, she argued that under the Supreme Court’s Bruen framework, the Court could not simply dismiss those laws without first explaining why they should not count as historical evidence.
She outlined two possibilities: either the firearm restrictions in the Black Codes were constitutional but enforced in a racially discriminatory manner — making the constitutional defect an equal-protection problem — or the restrictions independently violated the Second Amendment. The Court, she argued, never resolved that question before excluding the Louisiana law from consideration.
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“Either history does matter, and if so, all potentially relevant historical experiences must be thoroughly examined,” she wrote. “Or, it does not, and the Court should just admit that the test it has created is boundless.”
Her reasoning immediately drew pushback from critics, who argued the Fourteenth Amendment was passed in response to laws like the Black Codes that denied newly freed Black Americans their constitutional rights, like the right to bear arms.
Rain clouds roll over the United States Supreme Court building in Washington, D.C., on June 18, 2026. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
“I would simply point her to what Justice Alito pointed out in the majority ruling — it was in response to these types of laws that the Fourteenth Amendment was enacted in the first place,” Hannah Hill, vice president of the National Association of Gun Rights, told Fox News Digital.
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“That right there is your answer,” Hill continued. “Yes, there was a historical tradition — they enacted a constitutional amendment to fix that deprivation of rights, and that is also in the Constitution now, so I think she should probably go back to law school.”
Tyler Yzaguirre, president of Second Amendment Institute, echoed O’Grady and Hill’s criticism.
“Those laws were not legitimate expressions of our Nation’s constitutional tradition; they were examples of government using its power to deprive Americans of a fundamental right,” Yzaguirre told Fox News Digital. “The Court was right to reject the notion that such laws could define the historical limits of the Second Amendment.”
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Businesses may still ban guns by posting or enforcing a “no firearms” policy. But what Hawaii can’t do, the Court said, is treat every business as off-limits to licensed gun owners unless the owner specifically says guns are allowed.
SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newsom reached an agreement Friday with legislative leaders on a $351.7-billion state budget in his final year as governor, a spending plan that uses a tax windfall to avoid major cuts and lessen California’s chronic deficit in the years ahead.
The deal provides nearly $2 billion in state revenue next year through tax hikes on corporations, new levies on software sales and a revamped tax on managed healthcare organizations. Lawmakers and the governor continue major investments in public schools, healthcare and agreed to increase spending on subsidized childcare and affordable housing.
“We want to leave the next governor not only a balanced budget, but a budget that is substantially structurally sound, and we’re going to accomplish that,” Newsom said in an interview Friday. “We were very cautious in terms of new spending,”
The agreement ends weeks of lobbying by outside interests and negotiations among lawmakers and the governor at the state Capitol about how to handle a surge of income tax collected on stock market gains related to artificial intelligence.
Early forecasts last June projected a $12.6-billion deficit in 2026-27, according to the California Department of Finance. Updated predictions now suggest the state will end the year with a surplus of $4.5 billion.
Democrats, following Newsom’s lead, are tucking away $6.4 billion for future years, which allows the governor to knock down a deficit previously projected through 2027-28 and assuage criticism about his spending habits.
But economists say the fix and revenue increase are likely only temporary.
Spending in California has generally exceeded revenue growth during Newsom’s tenure in the governor’s office, creating a chronic shortfall. Despite the extra funding, the budget continues a trend of relying on reserves, shifting funds, borrowing and suspending debt payments to balance state spending.
The Legislative Analyst’s Office, the nonpartisan fiscal advisor for lawmakers, has warned of a roughly $10-billion annual gap between the amount of money the state brings in and spends, which could grow dramatically worse if the stock market turns downward. The LAO has said the existence of any operating deficit during a revenue boom is a red flag and that the state is “ill-prepared” for even a modest decline.
Christopher Thornberg, an economist and founder of the consulting firm Beacon Economics, said it’s business as usual in Sacramento.
“They love increasing spending. But it seems politically impossible to go the other way,” Thornberg said. “We’ve seen this play out over and over again.”
Lawmakers and the governor offered a different take and asserted that their decision to put the $6.4 billion into a short-term reserve, called the Projected Surplus Temporary Holding Account, and ask voters to allow them to store more money in the rainy day fund are examples of prudent budgeting.
“You see us save more and you see us try to address the immediate needs of our community, but also the structural budget that potentially awaits us,” said Senate President Pro Tem Monique Limón (D-Goleta) in an interview. “We are forecasting a moment where we will need to address these issues and we want to start now to think about the future as well.”
Under a progressive tax structure, the state budget is dependent on income taxes paid by the ultra-rich on earnings largely from capital gains. The set up leaves California vulnerable to the unpredictable nature of the stock market, dramatic swings in revenue and, in recent years, reliant on poor projections.
Negotiations at the state Capitol included an agreement on a constitutional amendment that seeks to offset the revenue highs and lows.
If approved by voters on the statewide ballot in November, the amendment would raise a cap on mandatory deposits into the rainy day fund from 10% to 20% of general fund revenue. The measure would also allow lawmakers to exempt money they put into the rainy day fund and the temporary holding account from state spending limits.
Under an existing state appropriations restraint, also known as the Gann Limit, lawmakers cannot spend more than an amount determined by a formula that takes annual tax proceeds, changes to the population and cost of living into consideration. Tax revenue above the limit must be divided between schools and refunds to taxpayers.
With few exceptions, the limit applies to most appropriations of tax revenue, including when lawmakers put money away in the rainy day fund and other reserves.
Newsom said the change will leave the state in a much better position to weather the volatility. Though calls for tax reform remain in California, the governor said being able to place more money into the reserves could ultimately solve the state’s budget challenges.
“The one thing missing is the one thing that I think we finally landed, which is the change in the reserves,” Newsom said. “It changes the political dynamic, where now you’re not exchanging general fund priorities.”
Republicans criticized the proposed constitutional amendment, which passed in a budget trailer bill this week, for failing to require that excess revenue pays down the state’s $22 billion in unemployment insurance debt.
State Sen. Tony Strickland (R-Huntington Beach) called it a missed opportunity.
“It does not require debt payment to go to the UI debt,” Strickland said. “It facilitates more spending, exempting reserve deposits from the state spending limit.”
The proposed change to the state Constitution also jabs the president and asks voters to approve a 100% tax on payments any California taxpayers receive from the “Anti-Weaponization Fund” Trump established for allies who claim they were unjustly targeted by the federal government.
As part of the overall budget negotiations, lawmakers agreed to delay some healthcare cuts that would have required monthly premiums for immigrants and eliminated dental care. The deal adopts a Medi-Cal asset test of $21,000 on July 1, 2027, instead of $2,000.
The budget agreement includes a provision requiring California’s next governor to develop options to reduce taxpayer subsidies for corporations whose employees receive state-sponsored healthcare through Medi-Cal instead of the company’s health plan. The plan is aimed at raising revenue to offset federal cuts that are expected to leave millions of Californians without access to healthcare.
To generate $11.25 billion for affordable housing, Democrats approved a bond for the November ballot that would include down payment and mortgage assistance to veterans and low-income families. Democrats also approved $900 million in Homeless Housing, Assistance, and Prevention grants, marking a $400-million increase from Newsom’s budget proposal in May.
The California Department of Finance said state reserves are expected to total $28.8 billion under the 2026-27 budget.
Politics
Warren tells Trump to ‘sign the damn bill’ as bipartisan housing package remains stalled in Washington
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Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., lashed out at President Donald Trump during a recent local television interview, labeling him a “man-child” throwing a “tantrum” over his refusal to sign a sweeping bipartisan housing package.
Appearing on WCVB’s “On the Record,” the left-wing senator did not hold back her frustration over the stalled legislation, delivering a blunt message to the president: “Sign the damn bill.”
“If he cared about the American people, he’d have already signed the damn thing,” Warren said during the interview, arguing that Trump “does not care about the economic survival of America’s working families.”
FILE – The Senate previously advanced the massive housing package geared toward lowering the costs of homes and supercharging the housing supply. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., pitched it as legislation to prevent America from becoming a “nation of renters.” (Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Protect Borrowers ; Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
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The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act is an expansive bipartisan package that she said contains nearly 50 provisions designed to address the nationwide housing emergency.
Warren noted that decades of under-building have driven prices up, leaving the U.S. in need of millions of new units.
The primary focus of the bill is to lower the costs of construction and make it easier to build new homes.
FILE – President Donald Trump previously said lawmakers must first approve the SAVE America Act before he moves forward with the housing package. (Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg)
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The bill, which was co-sponsored by Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., also includes a secondary focus aimed at blocking corporate consolidation of the housing market.
Warren explained that the legislation is designed to keep private equity firms from buying up local neighborhoods and turning America “into a nation of renters.”
According to Warren, the legislation had widespread support from both sides of the aisle before it was stalled.
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She claimed the bill was “handed to the president on a silver platter” and that lawmakers from both parties were eagerly taking credit for the legislation.
“Republicans were all going online, saying, ‘well, I helped write that bill. This bill is terrific,’” Warren said. “So everybody’s out there saying, ‘my bill, I helped make this happen,’ right up until the man-child has a tantrum and announces he will not be signing it.”
FILE – Sen. Elizabeth Warren called President Donald Trump a “man-child” during the interview, describing his refusal to sign the bill as a “tantrum.” (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
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Critics of the legislation claim it does not allocate fresh federal funding, directly address rising costs of homeownership, or go far enough to address permitting issues.
The president previously canceled a scheduled signing event, insisting lawmakers must first approve the unrelated SAVE America Act, a voting-focused measure, before he moves forward.
The White House did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.
Fox News Digital’s Alex Miller contributed to this report.
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