Poll: If Trump wins the White House, Californians want their next senator to fight back

If President Trump is elected in November, California voters have a clear message for the Golden State’s next senator: Protect us.

If Kamala Harris is elected, however, Californians want to see their next senator focus on legislation that helps the state as much as possible.

Those divergent findings come from a new poll released Friday by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, sizing up how voters feel about the two Senate candidates: Democratic Rep. Adam B. Schiff and Republican Steve Garvey.

The poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, shows how the largest state in the nation may act as a political counterweight if Trump is elected in November — or as an ally to Harris, if she becomes the first California Democrat to win the White House.

With less than a month to go in the race to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the poll shows that Schiff has maintained his wide advantage over Garvey. About 53% of likely voters say they prefer Schiff, a number that hasn’t budged all year, while about 36% prefer Garvey and 11% remain undecided.

The poll of 3,045 Californians was conducted Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, before this week’s testy debate between the Senate candidates in Burbank.

Schiff’s high-profile positions as chair of the House Intelligence Committee and lead manager of Trump’s first impeachment trial vaulted him to national prominence.

At the Tuesday debate, Garvey tried to portray Schiff as someone too caught up in a vendetta against Trump to focus on issues important to California voters, asking him: “How can you think about one man every day and focus on that when you’ve got millions of people in California to take care of?”

But if Schiff is elected to the Senate and Trump is elected to the White House, California’s likely voters want to see the Burbank congressman continue that role, said Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley IGS poll.

“Schiff has portrayed himself as the anti-Trump, and these data conform to that,” DiCamillo said.

Nearly 6 in 10 likely California voters would want to see the state’s next senator prioritize “protecting California’s interests and opposing federal legislation that would undercut existing state laws and policies” if Trump is elected, the poll found.

More than 4 in 5 Schiff supporters, and more than half of undecided voters, say that protecting California’s interests should be a top priority.

But California’s likely voters also want to see their next senator reaching across the aisle to work with the other party, with 50% saying he should focus on passing bipartisan legislation. And 49% said that if Trump is elected, the state’s next senator should prioritize “standing up to the president and challenging his executive orders.”

The priorities of the California electorate shift dramatically when considering a Harris administration.

A 56% majority said they would want California’s next senator to prioritize policies and laws that bring as many benefits as possible to the state.

Meanwhile, 48% would want to see Schiff or Garvey collaborate with the Harris administration on her legislative agenda, while 31% said he should prioritize defending Harris from partisan attacks in the Senate.

The poll found that Garvey, who played for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres for nearly two decades, leads Schiff in the Inland Empire and the Central Valley.

The two men are in a dead heat in purple Orange County, with 46% of voters supporting each candidate.

Garvey, DiCamillo said, “is doing fairly well for a Republican statewide.” But he faces the same “structural problem as any Republican running statewide.” Among California’s registered voters, Democrats outnumber Republicans by almost 2 to 1.

Schiff has maintained a wide lead in California’s two most populous areas, which represent nearly half of the electorate. In Los Angeles County, 59% of likely voters planned to back Schiff, and in the San Francisco Bay Area, nearly 7 in 10 said they would.

Garvey said at Tuesday’s debate that he has voted for Trump three times, including in the 2024 presidential primary. But he hasn’t sought Trump’s endorsement, which Trump said last month was “a big mistake.”

“If he doesn’t have MAGA he’s got no chance,” Trump said, referring to the acronym that stands for his motto, “Make America Great Again,” and his political base.

The data suggest that Garvey does, in fact, have support from Trump’s loyal fans. Among respondents who characterized their political views as MAGA, 92% said they planned to support Garvey.

By contrast, Schiff’s support was highest among people who identified as progressive (89%) and pro-choice (79%).

The two men had relatively similar disapproval ratings. Among likely voters, 43% said they had a favorable view of Schiff, compared with 34% unfavorable. For Garvey, about 35% of voters had a favorable view, 35% said they had a negative view, and 30% had no opinion.