Politics
People are betting on elections in prediction markets. Congress is watching
WASHINGTON — As Spencer Pratt fell behind in the Los Angeles mayoral primary, an unexpected group began claiming election fraud: people tracking the Republican’s success on prediction markets, the increasingly popular online exchanges on which people can make bets on almost anything.
“Crazy how much voter fraud can be done with mail in ballots,” one user following bets on the mayoral race wrote last week on Kalshi, one of the top trading platforms.
“Same old California fraud,” said another who had bet that Pratt would win.
Election fraud claims extended to social media, where a handful of influencers who post content for prediction market platforms questioned the ballot count. “It’s a dead heat on Kalshi,” one user wrote on social media. “Is CA cheating to get Spencer Pratt out?”
Kalshi told the influencers to delete the posts, which violated company guidelines. Polymarket, the other leading platform, directed them to remove the paid partnership label from those posts.
The amplification of election misinformation by users who had money staked on the mayoral race adds a new twist to evolving scrutiny of prediction markets, and scholars say the ability to bet on elections broadly raises questions about whether the exchanges could alter how Americans engage in democracy.
“Elections are not a game,” said Davina Hurt, director of government ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University. “[If market] probabilities begin influencing donor decisions, media attention, the energy around [campaign] volunteers — at that point, markets aren’t just observing the election. They’re a part of it.”
Fans of the exchanges say they are powerful tools that can help decision makers, and company leaders have touted them as highly accurate predictors that can act as an antidote to misinformation and provide election insights.
“By shifting focus from ‘what people say’ to ‘where they put their money,’ and filtering out social media noise and pundit bias, we are providing a level of clarity and predictive power that cannot be matched,” said Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever .
But these markets’ rapid rise has also raised a host of questions among members of Congress, state lawmakers and others — about betting on elections, wars and other political events, about potential insider trading, and about whether the platforms should be left to self-regulate. Some states are also in legal battles with the federal government over whether the activity amounts to gambling, which they seek to regulate.
“It’s like we’re in the 1930s with financial markets — we have some things that we want to regulate and restrict [as a country], and we’re sort of in the early stages of trying to lay out what the rules are,” said Koleman Strumpf, an economist at Wake Forest University.
Concerns about insider trading
The discourse around the Los Angeles mayoral race was the latest to raise questions at the intersection of prediction markets and politics. Earlier this year, an Army soldier was indicted after allegedly using his knowledge of the planned U.S. operation to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro to make bets on it, winning more than $400,000. He has pleaded not guilty.
Around the same time, several anonymous users reportedly earned $2.4 million combined by making remarkably prescient bets on the Iran war, prompting concern in Congress about insider trading. And during the primary elections, Kalshi fined a few politicians for betting on themselves, while the Justice Department began investigating a former congressman on similar charges.
Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara speaks at a conference in Santa Monica, Calif., in April.
(Anna Webber / Inc.)
The episodes set off a debate in Washington. The Republican-led House Oversight Committee opened an investigation into potential insider trading, and a bipartisan group in Congress has introduced a flurry of bills seeking to put up guardrails. It remains unclear whether any will pass this session.
The chatter in Congress appeared to lead the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets, to propose a new framework last week to govern issues raised by lawmakers, such as potential betting on wars. Commission Chair Mike Selig said the proposal would allow for scrutiny of suspicious activity “while letting legitimate markets move forward pursuant to the public interest.”
The markets commission under former President Biden was viewed as somewhat skeptical of prediction markets; the agency under President Trump — whose eldest son holds advisory positions at both Polymarket and Kalshi — has been seen as more favorable to the industry. The federal government has sued several states over their attempts to regulate the markets under state laws banning sports gambling and other measures.
Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who has introduced legislation on the topic, said the agency’s framework would benefit the industry at the expense of the public interest.
The agency lacks “the leadership, will and investigative staff needed to confront the dangers of election misinformation, insider trading, and more,” Schiff said, “and seems content to allow the industry to police itself.”
Making bets
As California’s primary neared, people staked their dollars on the state’s races in droves. On Kalshi, trading volume on one contract about who will win the L.A. mayoral race in November had reached more than $117 million as of Tuesday.
Prediction market users trade on the outcome of future events, making money if they’re correct and losing money if they’re wrong. Someone can purchase a contract on the prediction that L.A. Mayor Karen Bass will win in November, a yes contract, or on the prediction that she will lose, a no contract.
On Tuesday, Bass contracts on Kalshi were selling at 63 cents each for yes and 38 cents for no, meaning the market was forecasting a 63% chance of her winning. Users receive $1 per contract if their prediction is correct, creating a profit on their initial investment.
Prediction markets generally create more accurate forecasts than political polls, according to Strumpf, whose research has examined 30 years of prediction markets in various forms.
Many of the issues critics raise are theoretical and have not been seen in practice, Strumpf said. By his analysis, there is no evidence that the markets have ever influenced an election outcome. He said serious traders tend to do extensive research in order to make money, meaning their bets are educated.
Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano), who has introduced legislation to prohibit event contracts involving terrorism, war, assassination and deaths, said the platforms may be useful in some cases but shouldn’t be left to police themselves. He said he’s concerned that the markets create “all the wrong incentives” for people, including political candidates and officials, to abuse inside knowledge.
“I don’t trust them to self-regulate at all,” Levin said of the companies. “The federal role should be guardrails that are reasonable and pragmatic.”
‘The sanctity of our elections’
Skeptics’ concerns regarding elections largely center around the markets’ introduction of a new way for money to potentially influence politics.
They say the desire to elevate a candidate’s market odds could create an incentive for market manipulation, and they worry that the votes of Americans using the market could be influenced by their desire to profit.
“This has real impacts for the sanctity of our elections,” said Assemblymember Maggy Krell (D-Sacramento), who raised concerns about how prediction markets could impact the democratic process in a March letter to the state’s Fair Political Practices Commission. (California lawmakers are looking at the issue, a spokesperson for Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas (D-Hollister) said, though none of the bills introduced this year have yet moved forward.)
The platforms create a potential new channel “for dark money to flow into our elections,” Krell said. “Specifically, someone who’s opposing or supporting a candidate could potentially use sites like Kalshi to elevate that candidate and impact the entire pool.”
The industry has endeavored to “get out in front” of concerns by creating their own policies aimed at preventing insider trading, market manipulation and other issues, said attorney Ronak D. Desai, partner and head of the congressional practice at the Washington law firm Paul Hastings.
Kalshi has a ban on those practices and has banned markets tied directly to death and war, Lever said. It also screens all new users and, in the first quarter of this year, blocked more than 100 potential insider trades and referred more than 20 cases to law enforcement.
In the case of the military member who bet on the United States’ operation in Venezuela, for instance, Polymarket caught the activity and referred the case to the Justice Department, a spokesperson said. The company has referred nearly 100 cases of suspicious activity to law enforcement, he said.
Election markets are not offered on Polymarket’s U.S. exchange — though users in the U.S. and other countries that ban the company’s international exchange are widely reported to access it using online tools.
“Polymarket prohibits trading based on stolen information, illegal tips, or information obtained in breach of a duty of trust, confidentiality, or other legal obligation,” the Polymarket spokesperson said in a statement.
Aaron Klein, senior fellow in the Center on Regulation and Markets at the Brookings Institution, predicted that pressure for further regulation would continue to mount.
“The top goal of a society is to have free and fair elections,” Klein said. “At a time in our nation’s history where people are doubting the integrity of elections and foreign governments are stoking those flames, we ought to be pretty careful.”
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“Two down and two to go” blared the new wanted poster targeting the two remaining fugitive sons of infamous Mexican cartel kingpin Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman-Loera, who is serving life-plus-30-years in Colorado’s federal supermax prison.
On Monday, ICE posted a new wanted poster for two members of “Los Chapitos” — Ivan Archivaldo Guzman Salazar and Jesus Alfredo Guzman Salazar, two of El Chapo’s sons with his first wife, Alejandrina Maria Salazar-Hernandez.
After El Chapo’s final capture in 2016, control of the powerful Sinaloa Cartel shifted to Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. Following Zambada’s arrest during the Biden administration, leadership passed to Guzman’s four sons.
MEXICAN SENATOR ACCUSES SHEINBAUM OF SHIELDING ‘NARCO-POLITICIANS’ AFTER US CARTEL INDICTMENT
Both the Trump administration in the U.S. and the Sheinbaum administration in Mexico have said they are focused on cracking down on cartel’s new leadership.
“Two down and two to go with $10 million reward,” the wanted poster read, with Xs over the faces of the already captured Joaquin Guzman Lopez and Ovidio Guzman Lopez.
The two captured Chapitos are reportedly cooperating with authorities and have not yet been sentenced, but Ivan and Jesus remain “armed and dangerous,” according to ICE.
ICE NABS ACCUSED MS-13 KILLER HIDING IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA SUBURB
El Chapo Guzman arrives in the United States after his capture in Mexico. (AP File)
The two fugitives are charged with conspiracy to distribute a controlled substance and operating a continuing criminal enterprise.
Two of Guzman’s four sons have already been captured through Operation Take Back America, an initiative seeking the “total elimination of cartels and transnational criminal organizations” in order to protect U.S. communities from violent crime.
U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois Andrew Boutros said in a recent statement that efforts to capture El Chapo’s sons are the latest steps “in our efforts to bring to justice drug lords and other dangerous criminals who poison the American public with illegal and harmful drugs and who otherwise engage in violence and corruption to carry out their and their enterprises’ wide-reaching criminal activities.”
US MILITARY KILLS TWO ALLEGED NARCO-TERRORISTS IN LATEST EASTERN PACIFIC STRIKE ON DRUG-TRAFFICKING VESSEL
Joaquin “Shorty” Guzman, center, is escorted by soldiers during a presentation at the Navy’s airstrip in Mexico City. (Reuters/Edgard Garrido)
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In his plea agreement, Guzman Lopez admitted that he and his cartel associates committed violence against law enforcement officials, rival drug traffickers and members of their own organization to protect the Sinaloa Cartel’s trafficking operations.
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Fox News Digital reached out to ICE and DHS for additional comment and information on the mission to capture the two at-large Chapitos.
WASHINGTON — President Trump said Monday that he called the president of FIFA to dispute a red card that would have barred the American striker Folarin Balogun from playing in Monday’s elimination game with Belgium, acknowledging an extraordinary intervention by a head of state in the sport’s disciplinary process.
“I asked for a review because I didn’t think it was a foul,” Trump told reporters during an event in the Oval Office. “I am good at this stuff. I didn’t think it was a foul. I thought it was two great athletes that crashed into each other and got entangled.”
FIFA subsequently rescinded Balogun’s suspension, the first time the governing body has reversed a red-card penalty during a World Cup in 64 years. Belgium has protested the decision, and a hearing is scheduled for Monday to determine whether Balogun’s reinstatement will stand.
Trump said it would be a “stain” on the World Cup to let the penalty stand, and even called the referee who issued the card “suspect” with a questionable past, though he did not provide evidence to support the accusation.
While many in the United States joined the president in celebrating the reversal, others blasted its adverse impact on the integrity of the sport.
The Belgium team has protested the penalty reversal, with the country’s soccer federation saying it was “astonished” by the ruling.
“We are not defending the national team or federation. We are defending football,” Belgian coach Rudi Garcia said.
The episode has drawn attention to Trump’s close relationship with Gianni Infantino, the president of FIFA. In December, Infantino presented Trump with the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize, an award the governing body created after Trump was passed over for the Nobel Peace Prize. That decision is now the subject of an ethics complaint, backed by members of the European Parliament, who argue it compromised FIFA’s political neutrality.
Trump appeared to downplay the significance of his call to Infantino.
“I can’t tell him what to do, and I don’t believe he made the decision,” Trump said. “I think it was a committee that made the decision, and they made the right decision, because number one, it wasn’t a foul, and you want to see a game with your best players.”
But he said it would be “very unfair” and “terrible” to not let Balogun play. He said it would be the equivalent of barring Argentina’s Lionel Messi or Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo — both global superstars — because they “ran” or “bumped” into someone on the field.
“We have to have our best players, and they have to have their best players. And if we win or we lose, it’s fair,” Trump said. “Let’s say we lost [Balogun] and we lose the game — it would be a terrible thing.”
Secretary Burgum condemns vandalism targeting National Mall amid new threats
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum reacts to a disturbing pattern of vandalism targeting the National Mall, including the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, which suffered significant damage. Burgum details the restoration efforts, the deployment of security and the arrest of seven individuals involved. He stresses that such acts are an attack on the country and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.
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President Donald Trump and his Interior Department are declaring an America 250 victory over algae in the Lincoln Reflecting Pool.
Trump shared photos on Truth Social on Sunday showing the pool and the reflection of the Washington Monument appearing clear and blue, and made a call out with a “Wanted” poster for vandals.
“The U.S. Park Police is seeking the public’s assistance in identifying the individual in the notice below in connection with a Destruction of Government Property investigation related to the Reflecting Pool,” Trump wrote Sunday on Truth Social.
Trump also shared an Interior Department statement crediting “advanced nanobubbler technology” and National Park Service cleanup work.
FORMER US OLYMPIAN DAVID HEARN INDICTED IN ALLEGED REFLECTING POOL VANDALISM
President Donald Trump is touting the algae cleanup and the prosecution of vandals from the Lincoln Reflecting Pool, with the water proving clear and refective in this July 3 photo. (Finn Gomez/Getty Images)
“The advanced nanobubbler technology very effectively killed the algae that has plagued every Lincoln Reflecting Pool reopening — most infamously Obama’s reopening — since 1922,” Dei Gratia Minerals founder Greg Wischer, Interior’s deputy assistant secretary for land and minerals management, wrote in a letter shared with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Trump.
“The Reflecting Pool water is crystal clear, and our National Park Service team is now vacuuming up the dead algae resting on the bottom of some parts of the Reflecting Pool — just like the destroyed Iranian Navy resting on the bottom of the Persian Gulf.”
The photos shared by Trump show the Reflecting Pool stretching toward the Washington Monument under blue skies. One image appears to show the pool from the Lincoln Memorial end, while a second closer view shows the Washington Monument reflected in the water.
Trump also shared a U.S. Interior Press social media post hailing the technological success, quoting that Wischer memo.
YOSEMITE, GRAND CANYON LEAD NOTABLE LIST OF NATIONAL PARK CAMPGROUNDS FOR AMERICA’S 250TH
Pete Folch carries an American flag during a morning run past the Reflecting Pool as the city prepares for July 4th festivities on July 3, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
“The vacuuming is the final maintenance step after refilling the pool, and it will be complete in a few days,” his memo continued. “Already, the section of the Reflecting Pool closest to the Lincoln Memorial has been vacuumed up, and the beautiful American Flag Blue coating on the bottom of the pool can be seen clearly.”
Trump’s Interior Department has praised the technology for overcoming past challenges in keeping the pool clear, including dunking on former President Barack Obama.
“Previous administrations — most notably under Obama — failed to maintain the Reflecting Pool, and after refilling the pool, the water would quickly become murky and thick with massive clumps of algae floating on the surface,” the memo concluded.
INTERNAL EMAILS EXPOSE HOW JULY 4TH BASH IS BEING DERAILED BY DEM-RUN COUNTY: ‘OFFENSIVE’
Police said the incident happened on Friday at around 3:36 p.m. at the Reflecting Pool on the grounds of the Lincoln Memorial in the nation’s capital. (U.S. Park Police)
“The photos below show how the nanobubbler technology and vacuuming have been incredibly effective, making the water crystal clear with the American Flag Blue coating shining brightly on the bottom of the pool.
“As our National Park Service team noted, the Reflecting Pool is now so ‘blue’ that the Fake News Media, which has been staked out at the Reflecting Pool for weeks, has fled!”
The 6.75 million-gallon pool has been targeted by Trump critics and leftist anti-Trump activists for attacks both verbally and physical, Burgum discussed with ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday.
“The Reflecting Pool has been a big success,” he said. “And we’ve got 340 million people in this country that are celebrating 250. We did have a few vandals, but all that’s going to be repairable, and that’ll all be fixed in the coming weeks as we go forward.”
People look out at the Reflecting Pool and Washington Monument from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial ahead of July 4 festivities on July 03, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
Burgum now believes that the pool might not require a full draining after its “multiple gashes that add up to 350 feet,” he added.
“We don’t know if we need to drain the whole thing or not because, you know, the cutting happened on the edge, and, of course, it slopes from the edge,” according to Burgum.
“We may be able to partially drain it and do the repair. To be able to fix it, we may not have to drain the whole thing, but it could go very quickly.”
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While the media and Trump critics are pointing to added costs of the reflecting pool refurbishment, Burgum pointed to the vandalism causing that.
“We weren’t expecting that we were going to have a small group of people that wanted to try to destroy effectively what is part of the Lincoln Memorial,” Burgum told ABC. “There’s plenty of cameras around the Lincoln statue and around the memorial, but the Reflecting Pool had gone for, you know, decades without vandalism.”
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