Politics
Opinion: Is this going to be the most performative presidential debate ever?
The first debate between President Biden and former President Trump on Thursday night will be a real test of Americans’ sense of civic duty. I essentially get paid to watch; political journalism is my job. But given the sort of cringey schoolyard ruckus that Trump provoked between the two men in their initial encounter four years ago, it’s a fair question why anyone else would tune in.
Except out of dedication to good citizenship.
Opinion Columnist
Jackie Calmes
Jackie Calmes brings a critical eye to the national political scene. She has decades of experience covering the White House and Congress.
So here we go again, to paraphrase Ronald Reagan’s memorable riposte to then-President Jimmy Carter in their 1980 debate. Don’t expect edification, not when Trump is involved, but hope for some anyway.
About 73 million viewers tuned in for the Biden-Trump melee in September 2020 — not for the entire 90 minutes, I’m confident — and additional viewers livestreamed the spectacle. For perspective, that compares to about 160 million registered voters. The audience was smaller than anticipated, down from the record-high 84 million who watched Trump’s first face-off with Hillary Clinton in 2016, and down as well from the number who viewed the Carter-Reagan debate 40 years earlier.
Nonetheless, as my colleague Stephen Battaglio recently wrote, presidential debates are “one of the last mass audience experiences left in a highly fragmented TV landscape.” Six of 10 U.S. adults said they would watch all or most of Thursday’s showdown, and nearly a quarter said they would closely follow the news coverage about it, according to a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll this month. Good for them. In our polarized nation, a presidential debate is a rare communal experience, if far less enjoyable than a Super Bowl.
Just as with the NFL championship, most viewers will head into the presidential debate cheering for one contender or the other, and nothing about the show in Atlanta — no lie or imbecility from Trump, no gaffe or stumble from Biden — will dissuade them from their man’s team. That makes the candidates’ target audience the few persuadable voters. The ones who actually will go to the trouble of watching the virtually unwatchable in the hope that it will help them make up their minds.
Just about everyone, however, will be united in their focus: How do both men look, sound and perform? Biden and Trump are the oldest people ever to serve as president, and each has been credibly criticized as too old to do it again.
As Republican pollster Whit Ayres put it to PBS News, “Can Joe Biden not look like a senile old man? Can Donald Trump not be an obnoxious jerk?”
The answer to the first question is yes, Biden can, as evidenced by his impressive performance recently at Normandy for the 80th anniversary of D-day, and months earlier in his feisty State of the Union address. He desperately needs to look and sound presidential again, for a much larger audience of voters who are, by definition, politically engaged. But he also needs that feistiness — not to give as good as he gets from Trump (who would want that?), but to sparingly and strategically counterpunch in ways that underscore Trump’s inanity. For example, Biden’s zinger in 2020: “Will you shut up, man?” He spoke for so many millions of us that night.
The answer to the second question is no, Trump can’t be anything but obnoxious. For his own electoral sake, however, he really must try. CNN’s debate rules lend him a hand: Given Trump’s penchant for the kind of nonstop interruptions and insults that all but wrecked the 2020 debate, CNN will cut off both candidates’ mics when it’s not their time to speak. And there will be no studio audience for the performative Trump to play to.
Perhaps that’s why he’s started calling it a “Fake Debate.” The rest of us can hope it’s more like the real thing, with fewer theatrics, lies and butting-in — a matchup that a high school debate coach might recognize.
Except for this: The extent to which viewers’ emphasis will be on the two candidates’ style over substance will be all but unprecedented in the history of presidential debates — especially the 64 years that they’ve been televised. (Would-be spoiler Robert F. Kennedy Jr., fortunately, failed to make the cut for the CNN-sponsored debate; the conspiracist hasn’t yet qualified for enough states’ ballots.)
Emphasizing style over substance is perhaps inevitable, and even important, when such old men are seeking reelection as leaders of the free world. But it’s not a good thing at a time when so many issues troubling the nation demand substantive policy responses.
Take the existential threat of climate change. As Biden and Trump prep for debate, much of the nation is enduring deadly record-high heat, along with the wildfires and intense storms that have become commonplace on our warming globe. Biden is implementing the most ambitious clean-energy agenda ever, and Trump has sworn he’ll repeal it. That dichotomy deserves probing questions from the CNN moderators, and our attention to the answers.
And what about the continued threats to reproductive rights in the wake of the Dobbs decision that Trump’s justices on the Supreme Court made possible? The debate will come three days after that ruling’s second anniversary. Or the unsustainable growth of the national debt, to which both Biden and Trump contributed? Or the ongoing chaos in the nation’s immigration system, which was a big problem on Trump’s watch, too, despite his false revisionism about how well-controlled the southern border was then.
The candidates are likely to respond with more heat than light, especially the policy-phobic Trump. Yet his advisors’ Project 2025 plan is chock full of radical, detailed policies for gutting the civil service, repealing environmental laws, enforcing mass deportations that would rock the economy and defunding or closing whole government departments, should he regain the office. Trump must be forced to answer for those dangerous ideas — by the moderators, Biden or both.
If everyone who says they’ll pay attention does so, Americans will have passed the civic duty test. We can hope the candidates will pass theirs, delivering more than gaffes and groans. Alas, there’s nothing in Trump’s sorry rhetorical record to suggest he will rise to the occasion. Yet that, too, would be informative. Stay tuned.
@jackiekcalmes
In the presidential debate former President Trump insisted repeatedly that if he had still been in the White House, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine and Hamas would not have invaded Israel.
Both claims are unprovable. But Trump repeated the assertion again and again in his debate Thursday night with President Biden.
It is true, foreign policy analysts have said, that Trump might have been able to discourage Putin from invading Ukraine — but, they’ve asked, at what cost?
Trump, a vocal admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, might have made concessions to Moscow — such as sacrificing Ukrainian territory — that many in the West would find unpalatable.
After the Russian invasion in 2022, Biden was able to rally and fortify NATO in the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine. It seems unlikely Trump would have had that influence, given that the largest of NATO countries were generally contemptuous of Trump during his administration.
Trump’s claim that Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both militant groups backed by Iran, became emboldened because Biden’s policies built up Iran are also not completely true. The Obama administration did unfreeze some Iranian assets in foreign banks as part of the landmark Iran nuclear deal in 2015, which curbed Iran’s nuclear aspirations.
It was Trump’s decision in 2018, however, to abandon the nuclear deal — he said it didn’t go far enough — that sent Iran on a major quest to enrich uranium, which has now brought the Islamic Republic closer than ever to being able to produce a nuclear bomb.
Trump, whose support for Israel essentially eliminated Palestinian statehood aspirations from the picture, took a swipe at Biden in the debate for what he described as failing to supply Israel with the weapons it needs to fight Hamas. Biden said that is not true. The Biden administration held up a single shipment of 2,000-pound bombs to prevent them from being used in the overly crowded Gazan city of Rafah during an offensive earlier this month.
Robust weapons shipments have continued, the Pentagon says. Trump attacked Biden for his bungled handling of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. To be sure, it was a chaotic disaster that killed 13 American service members and dozens of Afghans.
It was one of the darkest stains on Biden’s foreign policy record. However, he was fulfilling the agreement that Trump executed — in rare negotiations with the Taliban — before leaving office.
Trump also revived a lie he told in the months leading up to his first impeachment over attempts to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to dig up dirt on the Biden family. He said Biden, as vice president, had sought to get fired a Ukrainian attorney general who was targeting his son Hunter Biden.
In fact, the prosecutor was blacklisted by the European Union, the U.S. and other groups because of his refusal to tackle corruption, which international entities had established as a task for Kyiv before it could be considered for EU membership and other benefits.
On the Ukraine war, Trump said he would be able to “get it settled fast” before he even took office on Jan. 21. In other venues, he has also said he could get Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich freed from Russian authorities who arrested him on what the U.S. says are trumped-up espionage charges. In both cases, Trump is making claims impossible to test.
Case 9:23-cr-80101-AMC Document 655 Entered on FLSD Docket 06/27/2024 Page 2 of 11
CASE NO. 23-80101-CR-CANNON
showing” that the affidavit in support of the Mar-a-Lago search warrant contains any material false
statements or omissions. The balance of the Motion cannot be resolved on the current record,
however, because of pertinent factual disputes, and thus the Court RESERVES RULING on those
issues as stated below, pending an evidentiary suppression hearing to be scheduled by separate
order.
DISCUSSION
A. LEGAL PRINCIPLES GOVERNING A FRANKS HEARING
The Supreme Court has expressed “a strong preference” for searches conducted pursuant
to a warrant and has directed courts to accord “great deference” to a magistrate’s determination of
probable cause. United States v. Leon, 468 U.S. 897, 914 (1984) (internal quotation marks
omitted); id. at 922 (“[A] warrant issued by a magistrate normally suffices to establish that a law
enforcement officer has acted in good faith in conducting the search.”) (internal quotation marks
omitted). To this end, affidavits supporting warrants are presumptively valid, Franks v. Delaware,
438 U.S. 154, 171 (1978), and courts should not invalidate warrants by interpreting affidavits in a
“hypertechnical, rather than . . . commonsense, manner,” Illinois v. Gates, 462 U.S. 213, 236,
(1983) (internal quotation marks omitted).
As enunciated in Franks, however, deference to a magistrate’s determination of probable
cause “does not preclude inquiry into the knowing or reckless falsity of the affidavit on which that
determination was based.” Leon, 468 U.S. at 914. This derives from the root assumption that,
when the Fourth Amendment requires probable cause for the issuance of a warrant, the showing
of probable cause will be “truthful.” Franks, 438 U.S. at 164–65. “Truthful” in this context does
not mean, however, “that every fact recited in the warrant affidavit is necessarily correct, for
probable cause may be founded upon hearsay and upon information received from informants, as
well as upon information within the affiant’s own knowledge that sometimes must be garnered
2
Former President Trump and President Biden have spent weeks in preparation leading up to their center stage appearances tonight for the highly anticipated CNN Presidential Debate.
The debate is the first of the 2024 presidential election cycle to include both men, and millions of Americans across the country are seeking answers to questions about critical issues important to voters.
However, Americans are also awaiting viral moments brought on by both the remarks and facial expressions of each presidential candidate, especially as neither nominee is a stranger to social media virality.
YOUNG TRUMP SUPERFAN BROUGHT TO TEARS WHILE MEETING FORMER PRESIDENT
President Biden and former President Trump will go head-to-head tonight in the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle. (Win McNamee/Getty Images/Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
A few times since Biden began his presidency, the incumbent has attracted hundreds of thousands of clicks for a number of speaking gaffes and a few falls.
In 2022, Biden was recorded falling off his bike while cycling in Delaware, which quickly circulated across social media platforms.
Last summer, Biden drew social media attention when he tripped and hit the stage floor during an Air Force Academy graduation ceremony.
Last weekend, Trump went viral during a moment shared with a young fan in Philadelphia where the child was wearing a Trump-like suit and wearing a wig. The kid met the former president, who signed and gifted him with a $20 bill, and the exchange was captured on video. It garnered nearly 900,000 views on X at midday on Sunday.
“I like that kid! So, if your parents don’t want you, I’ll take you,” Trump said in the video.
PRESIDENT BIDEN ALMOST FALLS WHILE WALKING UP AIR FORCE ONE STAIRS
Biden has gone viral for falling down several times since becoming president. (Fox News)
In 2023, following his arrest in Fulton County, Georgia, Trump’s mugshot immediately went viral and has since been used to decorate coffee mugs, sweatshirts and T-shirts, including those sold on his own campaign website.
While there will be no audience present tonight in Atlanta at CNN’s Midtown studio, and microphones will be controlled by media personnel, viewers everywhere will be looking at the candidates for clashing reactions to one another, especially the usually unabashed expressions provided by Trump.
Here are some of the most memorable facial expressions by the former president during previous presidential debates.
Trump reacts to Biden saying he has no COVID plan
During the Sept. 29, 2020, presidential debate between Trump and Biden, hosted by Fox News, Biden said of Trump during the COVID-19 pandemic, “He went on record and said to one of your colleagues, recorded, that in fact he knew how dangerous it was, but he didn’t want to tell us, didn’t want to tell us because he didn’t want us to panic.”
He added, “He didn’t want us. Americans don’t panic. He panicked,” and went on to say that Trump “still doesn’t have a plan” regarding next steps to combat the disease at the time.
Trump reacts to Biden saying he “doesn’t have a plan” during a 2020 presidential debate. (Fox News)
Trump reacts to a question about paying $750 in federal income taxes in 2017
During the same presidential debate on Sept. 29, 2020, Trump was asked by the moderator if he would tell Americans how much he paid in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017, to which he responded, “Millions of dollars.”
He added, “And you’ll get to see it.”
In late 2022, Democrats revealed Trump’s tax returns and made his finances public to the American people, though Trump worked to stop them in court.
HILLARY CLINTON COMPLAINS IT’S ‘IMPOSSIBLE’ TO DEBATE TRUMP, ‘WASTE OF TIME’ TO REFUTE ARGUMENTS
Trump reacts to a question about his federal tax filings during a 2020 presidential debate. (Fox News)
Trump’s reactions during debate with Hillary Clinton
During a 90-minute CNN-hosted presidential debate on Oct. 9, 2016, in St. Louis, Hillary Clinton and Trump went head-to-head on topics including taxes, a travel ban on Muslims, Syrian refugees and two-faced politicians, among other topics.
Early in the debate, Clinton said, “It’s just awfully good that someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law in our country,”
Trump responded ominously, “Because you’d be in jail.”
Later in the debate the former Secretary of State said, “Well, everything you’ve heard from Donald is not true. I’m sorry I have to keep saying this, but he lives in an alternative reality and it is sort of amusing to hear somebody who hasn’t paid federal income taxes in maybe 20 years talking about what he’s going to do, but I’ll tell you what he’s going to do.”
Trump reacts to energy policy statement from Biden
During the final presidential debate between Trump and Biden on Oct. 22, 2020, at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, the former president and incumbent disagreed over energy policies when Biden said he wanted to move away from fossil fuels.
Biden said of Trump, “He won’t give federal subsidies to the gas, excuse me, to solar and wind,” to which Trump subsequently reacted with “Oooh!” a couple of times.
Trump reacts to Biden’s remarks during an ABC-hosted presidential debate in 2020. (ABC)
Trump reacts to Clinton and climate change remark
The first presidential debate between Clinton and Trump drew over 84 million viewers.
During the debate on Sept. 26, 2016, Clinton said of the former president, “Donald thinks that climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese,” to which Trump subtly raised his eyebrows and followed with “I did not. I do not say that.”
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Trump reacts to remarks made by Clinton regarding climate change during an NBC-hosted presidential debate in 2016. (NBC)
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