Explainer: Fears over festering Armenia-Azerbaijan territorial dispute

Fearing that the violence may spiral uncontrolled, U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken not too long ago took the weird step of looking for to mediate the festering battle between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

One analyst has known as the longstanding and sophisticated Eurasian dispute essentially the most critical armed battle that many Individuals have by no means heard of.

The 2 former Soviet republics within the South Caucasus have lengthy disputed the landlocked area often called the Nagorno-Karabakh. It lies geographically inside the borders of Azerbaijan however is usually populated by ethnic Armenians and managed by pro-Armenia separatists, who discuss with it as Artsakh.

In some respects, that situation is notoriously acquainted in lots of elements of the world, particularly in Europe after the autumn of the Soviet Union in 1991. Different examples embody the Balkans as Yugoslavia splintered within the mid Nineteen Nineties and the battle raging at the moment in Ukraine.

The Nagorno-Karabakh battle can also be a struggle through which every nation’s alliances have been shape-shifting, with each Armenia and Azerbaijan at instances supported by Russia whereas Armenia has loved extra backing from the U.S., particularly amongst lawmakers who’ve lengthy sympathized with Armenian American constituents.

But Armenia additionally counts on Russia as a navy ally, whereas the West is enlisting Azerbaijan’s power provides as a substitute for Russian gas.

The historical past

Nagorno-Karabakh is traditionally a predominantly ethnic Armenian enclave however has been internationally acknowledged as a part of Azerbaijan for the reason that two nations gained independence from the fallen Soviet Union.

The 2 nations that lie alongside the crossroads of Asia and Europe clashed over the enclave effectively into the Nineteen Nineties, in warfare that resulted in 30,000 deaths and the displacement of 1,000,000 extra folks. Armenians gained management of Nagorno-Karabakh and a number of other close by areas.

Tensions by no means subsided, and in 2020, a six-week struggle erupted through which 6,600 folks had been killed.

This time, Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, retook important quantities of territory. Professional-Armenian authorities continued to run a part of the enclave, which was patrolled by Russian peacekeepers. This rendered Armenia reliant on Moscow for defense.

Most up-to-date preventing

Final month, preventing broke out once more. On Sept. 13, some 200 troops and others from each nations had been killed in 48 hours, their governments mentioned. A hasty ceasefire was brokered by Russia, with a serious help from the U.N., but it surely stays fragile.

Either side has accused the opposite of triggering the violence by means of “provocative” actions, which reviews mentioned expanded preventing from the disputed enclave to farther alongside the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.

The Armenian Protection Ministry mentioned Azerbaijani forces unleashed an artillery barrage and drone assaults on Armenian territory. Azerbaijan’s Overseas Ministry mentioned it was countering Armenian troops who had been planting mines and firing on Azerbaijani navy positions.

If it was Azerbaijan that launched this newest collection of assaults, Baku could have been benefiting from Russia being mired in Ukraine and fewer in a position or keen to defend Armenia.

Roles for Russia, U.S. develop difficult — as do prospects for sturdy peace

Every spherical of preventing has empowered Azerbaijan, analysts say. The nation has emerged “having enhanced its place and demonstrated its battlefield dominance,” the Worldwide Disaster Group mentioned in a report Wednesday.

In the meantime its geopolitical place can also be stronger, the report famous. Armenia’s predominant protector, Russia, is struggling to carry its personal in Ukraine because it launched its February invasion, whereas European capitals crave Azerbaijan’s power exports, the group mentioned.

An emboldened Azerbaijan could also be much less keen to hunt a diplomatic resolution to a battle generations outdated. But a struggle that spills over into neighboring areas would possibly hurt the financial prospects that Baku could also be eyeing.

U.S. congressional assist for Armenia unfazed

In an indication of the assist Armenia continues to seek out within the U.S. Congress, whatever the shifting dynamics, Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi traveled to the capital, Yerevan, solely days after the newest preventing.

She was accompanied by California Reps. Jackie Speier and Anna G. Eshoo, greeted with flowers from her Armenian counterpart as she arrived, met with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and pledged “the robust and ongoing assist of america.” She condemned Azerbaijan’s “unlawful and lethal” assaults.

Individually, prime members of the Senate Overseas Relations committee demanded that the Biden administration halt safety help to Azerbaijan. In a bipartisan decision, the committee’s chair, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) additionally criticized Azerbaijan’s “unlawful and unprovoked assault on Armenian territory.”

Blinken’s efforts

The Biden administration, a minimum of publicly, has tried to stay extra neutral.

On the margins of final month’s United Nations Normal Meeting, the large annual gathering of many of the world’s leaders, Blinken added a session to his busy schedule on Sept. 19: a joint assembly with Armenian Overseas Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Jeyhun Bayramov.

“Robust, sustained diplomatic engagement is the most effective path for everybody,” Blinken mentioned earlier than the assembly, seated at a head desk with the grim-faced Armenians and Azerbaijanis on both facet. “There is no such thing as a navy resolution to the variations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However there’s, I believe, a path to a sturdy peace that resolves the variations by means of diplomacy. The US is ready to do no matter it may to assist these efforts.”

Though Azerbaijan’s Bayramov later sought to reduce the importance of the session, it was the primary face-to-face encounter by officers from the 2 nations for the reason that final spherical of preventing, and should sign a deeper U.S. involvement to stop runaway violence.