Politics
A Simple Experiment Reveals Why It’s So Hard to Measure R.F.K. Jr.’s Support
On top of all the other challenges that pollsters have faced in the past two presidential elections, this year has an additional, potentially significant, complication: a well-known third-party candidate.
Measuring support for third-party candidates has long been a particular challenge for pollsters. But it has been decades since the country has seen a third-party candidate as prominent as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has an average of about 10 percent of the vote in national polls.
Historically, polls overstate support for third-party candidates. When it comes to Mr. Kennedy, the biggest question may be by how much.
Kenny Holston/The New York Times
Consider this: In a two-part experiment conducted by The New York Times and the research firm Ipsos, a seemingly subtle difference across two versions yielded significantly different results for Mr. Kennedy.
What’s more, a candidate who is not on the ballot anywhere — a Times editor picked for inclusion thanks to his generic-sounding name — received a non-negligible share of support, highlighting just how much support for third-party candidates can come down to frustration with major-party candidates and a yearning for more options.
What does this all mean? It’s tempting to interpret these results as ungenerous to both voters and to polling. But the results say something real about how preferences work, and the central conundrum when it comes to third-party candidates. (This experiment is separate from Times/Siena College polling, though it was conducted with the same standards and rigor that we apply to all of our polling.)
In short: Much of what influences third-party candidate support isn’t just a straightforward desire to see that person become president. This poses a challenge for pollsters no matter what they do: Simply by listing third-party candidates, a poll might overstate their support. If a poll doesn’t list them, however, it can’t capture their support at all.
This year, to combat that concern, many reputable pollsters ask both versions of the question: one that poses a simple head-to-head contest between major-party candidates, and one that includes third-party candidates who may be on the ballot.
And which question gets asked first is where the difference comes in.
Question order matters
Here is the longer question asked by Times/Ipsos that includes the full field:
The first two major-party candidates were rotated with each other, and the third-party candidates were rotated separately.
It contains a total of six options: the major-party candidates, the three established third-party candidates who have achieved ballot access in at least one swing state, and our wild card, William Davis, at No. 6.
And this is the shorter question that includes just President Biden vs. Donald J. Trump:
Our experiment worked like this: All respondents were shown both the long and short questions, but half were shown the full list first, and the other half were first shown the two-way race.
Among those who saw the long list first, Mr. Kennedy garnered 7 percent of the vote.
But among those respondents who encountered the head-to-head contest before seeing the full list, Mr. Kennedy’s support shot up six percentage points to 13 percent.
Why the increase, if the questions are the same? There are many factors that can explain this, but it is at least partly related to a phenomenon that pollsters call expressive responding. This is when people might use a survey response to show their frustration or express a particular feeling that’s not exactly what is being asked.
In this case, many respondents seem to be using the second question to convey frustration with the choices for president in the first question, whether or not their answers reflect their full views. When respondents have already been given a chance to express their support for one of the two major-party candidates, they seem to be more likely to register a protest of that first choice with their response to the fuller ballot. Some of the respondents given the longer list first are also probably expressing their frustration with the major-party candidates, but our results help demonstrate that effect is magnified when the longest list of candidates is asked second.
[You can find the full results of the poll, including the exact questions that were asked and how the poll was conducted, here.]
That might also explain why Mr. Davis, the Times editor who has no aspirations for higher office, won the support of about 1.5 percent of respondents, putting him on par with an actual Libertarian Party candidate. His support was only slightly lower among respondents who saw the third-party candidates first — evidence that voter frustration, though less pronounced under that scenario, still exists.
What’s more, Mr. Davis gets 4 percent among voters who feel unfavorably toward Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump.
The effects of this phenomenon show up when looking across many high-quality polls. Among 11 recent national polls, those that listed third-party candidates as the second question generally saw higher support for those candidates when compared with the polls that showed third-party candidates as the first question. (In the latest Times/Siena battleground polls released Monday, Mr. Kennedy was listed in the first question and received 10 percent support across the six states.)
An experiment like this can help us get a rough sense of how much support for Mr. Kennedy, and other third-party candidates, might come from voters expressing their frustration. But it also puts into perspective just how much his support can vary across polls and how hard it is to judge his real support.
It also illustrates some of the limitations surveys face. Pollsters can rely only on what voters tell us, and even voters themselves might not have fully thought through some of these questions.
Are voters consciously telling us they plan to vote for Mr. Kennedy, knowing that in the end they might support one of the two major-party candidates? Probably not. But they might be considering their options at a time when these decisions feel fairly abstract.
Is Kennedy a unique case?
History shows that third-party candidates often poll best in the spring and summer before an election — when everything feels fairly hypothetical — but lose steam as the election nears. Looking back at some of the strongest modern third-party candidates like Ross Perot or John Anderson, they often follow a similar path: strong support early in the race that slowly recedes by Election Day.
There’s at least one reason to believe Mr. Kennedy’s support may last longer: his name. In the Times/Siena battleground polls, we asked his supporters why they planned to vote for him. While most listed distaste for the alternatives as their motivation, for a handful — about 7 percent — his family is exactly why they are supporting him, even as many of his relatives have disavowed his candidacy. As one respondent put it: “Because he is a Kennedy.”
But current conditions are also ripe to have inflated third-party support. The two major-party candidates are deeply unpopular, providing an outlet for the type of expressive responding that pollsters worry about. And in our latest Times/Siena swing state polls, support for Mr. Kennedy appeared weak. Only about 30 percent of his supporters said they definitely planned to vote for him, compared with nearly 80 percent of Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden’s supporters who said they definitely planned to vote for their candidate.
So perhaps Mr. Davis, the Times editor, should not consider giving up his job and hitting the campaign trail anytime soon. But poll consumers should consider that even the best polls are imperfect, and it’s important to understand potential sources of error.
This year, Mr. Kennedy’s support is likely a big one.
Politics
Newsom signs off on 100% California tax for money from Trump’s $1.8-billion ‘slush fund’
Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed off on a 100% state tax on money any Californians receive from Trump’s $1.8-billion “anti-weaponization” fund for his political allies.
Newsom unveiled his proposal in May, after Trump’s Justice Department said it would create a fund to compensate Trump’s allies who claim they have “suffered weaponization and lawfare” under Biden’s Justice Department.
The settlement fund was criticized by politicians on both sides of the aisle, including Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who described it as a “slush fund to pay people who assault cops.”
The fund remains in legal limbo. Earlier this month, a federal judge in Virginia extended a court-ordered block on the plan, which critics warned could be used to pay pardoned Jan. 6 rioters.
Fast-tracked into law as part of Senate Bill 122, Newsom’s plan imposes “a tax on any settlement fund payment from the federal Anti-Weaponization Fund, or any subsequent fund, settlement, or agreement, as provided, at a rate of 100%,” according to the bill text. The tax applies to all tax years between 2026 and 2030.
Newsom signed the bill Tuesday. In a statement, his office said the tax is meant to ensure that, should Trump’s fund proceed, California recipients won’t “receive favorable state treatment on those payments.”
“We believe democracy is worth defending, the rule of law matters, and public dollars should support victims—not those who attacked the very institutions that protect our freedoms,” Newsom said in the statement.
University of Southern California law professor Ariel Jurow Kleiman, an expert on tax law and policy, said that while Newsom’s tax is a “novel legal strategy,” she believes there is “no categorical legal restriction” preventing California from implementing it.
States have a “wide degree of discretion” to design their tax systems — including how they define income — so long as they do not violate their constitutions, Jurow Kleiman said.
If a California resident wanted to challenge the tax in court, they would need to show they were harmed by it to have standing to sue, according to Jurow Kleiman. That would mean receiving a payment from Trump’s settlement fund and then paying the 100% California tax. Unless the settlement fund is established and distributes payments, that scenario is unlikely.
While there have been proposals to levy a 100% tax on income above certain thresholds — Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in 2023 said he supports a 100% tax on income exceeding $1 billion — Jurow Kleiman said she is not aware of any governments that have adopted such a policy.
Politics
Congress eyes rare bipartisan housing win with or without Trump’s help
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The House has officially shipped a colossal bipartisan housing package to President Donald Trump, and lawmakers are hoping that, at the very least, he doesn’t veto it.
Trump was supposed to sign the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act last week, but his last-minute decision to ghost the signing ceremony with House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., put into question whether the bill was dead.
His refusal to sign the bill, which passed with overwhelmingly bipartisan support in both chambers, was to leverage the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) America Act, which doesn’t currently have the votes to succeed in the Senate.
WARREN TELLS TRUMP TO ‘SIGN THE DAMN BILL’ AS BIPARTISAN HOUSING PACKAGE REMAINS STALLED IN WASHINGTON
Trump has refused to sign the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. (Shawn Thew/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Trump appears to be in no hurry to sign the bill, despite Republicans who are hungry for a win in the affordability fight ahead of the midterm elections.
“It’s so unimportant … compared to the SAVE America Act,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. “I think the SAVE America Act is exactly what it says. It’s saving America from crooked elections.”
“Here’s what I would like to sign, much more than a bill that — big deal, it’s a yawn,” he continued. “Some people say it’s wonderful. To me, compared to the SAVE America Act, just about everything is a big yawn.”
GOP INFIGHTING OVER TRUMP’S VOTER ID BILL ERUPTS AS TOP SENATOR CALLS STRATEGY ‘FANTASY’
It’s legislation that is loaded with nearly 60 provisions from both sides of the aisle in both chambers that’s designed to make it easier for homes to be built and for younger Americans to buy their first home. It also includes a ban on hedge funds buying up housing stock that Trump pushed Congress to include during the State of the Union earlier this year.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., one of the architects behind the bill in the upper chamber alongside Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., charged that Congress handed the bill to Trump “on a silver platter.”
“When you ask me what happens next, if he cared about the American people, he’d have already signed the damned thing, and we’d be underway,” Warren said on WCVB’s “On the Record” on Sunday.
But Trump doesn’t have to put his signature on the bill for it to become law.
IRATE REPUBLICANS ACCUSE TRUMP OF HANDING DEMOCRATS A WIN AFTER BLOWING UP HOUSING PACKAGE
The Senate advanced a massive, Trump-backed housing package geared toward lowering the costs of homes and supercharging the housing supply. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., pitched it as legislation to prevent America from becoming a “nation of renters.” (Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Protect Borrowers; Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
The Constitution grants presidents the ability to veto a bill within 10 days of it being transferred over to the White House. In that scenario, Congress could override a veto of the housing package.
It’s happened before under the Trump administration. In early 2021, Congress overrode Trump’s veto of the annual National Defense Authorization Act — a massive Pentagon funding authorization package that some House Republicans are trying to use as a vehicle to pass the SAVE America Act.
But during that 10-day period, if Trump doesn’t sign the bill, it would automatically become law. That’s unless Congress completely adjourns, in which case a “pocket veto” could happen. The Senate is currently in recess and the House is scheduled to leave town by week’s end, but neither count as a full adjournment.
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Johnson, who spent the last few days meeting with Trump at the White House about the housing bill and the SAVE America Act, said: “I hope he does sign it.”
“If he doesn’t, it’s still law,” Johnson said. “We’ll still celebrate it, but he’s trying to make a point, and I think he’s making it very effectively. And the fact that you all ask me every three steps down the hallway illustrates that he has achieved the desired objective, and that is to make SAVE America the number one thing, because if we don’t get that right, everybody’s concerned about what happens next.”
Politics
British regulator may challenge Paramount takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery
Britain’s culture minister may challenge Paramount Skydance’s takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery — presenting a potential speed-bump to David Ellison’s plan to wrap up his $111-billion deal by September.
Earlier this month, Paramount secured the U.S. Justice Department’s blessing to buy the Warner assets, which include CNN, HBO, Cartoon Network, Animal Planet and the Warner Bros. film and TV studios in Burbank.
Paramount also must win the approval of British and European regulators, who are known for drilling deeply into media matters because of their influence on society.
Britain’s Competition and Markets Authority took a preliminary step this month by opening an investigation into Ellison’s proposed merger.
On Tuesday, Lisa Nandy, Britain’s Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport, notified Parliament that she was inclined to intervene in the blockbuster deal.
In a written statement, Nandy cited her ability to weigh in on “public interest grounds,” due to concerns about maintaining a competitive media market in Britain.
“The UK’s move to intervene in the Paramount–WBD deal confirms what we’ve been saying for months. The real regulatory risk was never in the US — it’s in Europe,” Forrester VP Research Director Mike Proulx said Tuesday in a statement.
While Nandy cautioned she has not made “a final decision on intervention at this stage,” she has invited Paramount and Warner Bros. to respond to her concerns by July 6.
June 2026 photo of Culture, Media and Sport Secretary Lisa Nandy arriving at Downing Street for the weekly Government cabinet meeting in London.
(Alishia Abodunde/Getty Images)
Paramount did not offer immediate comment.
The company owns CBS News, children’s channel Nickelodeon and Channel 5, one of the largest over-the-air television broadcasters in the United Kingdom.
Warner Bros. Discovery owns CNN, Cartoon Network and TNT Sports, which broadcasts the Olympics, Champions League and Premier League soccer matches.
“I am conscious that the proposed acquisition is global in nature,” Nandy wrote in her statement. “In reaching this decision, my focus has been, and will remain, on the UK public interest and the range of services available to UK audiences, including Channel 5, TNT Sports, Cartoon Network, Nickelodeon, and CNN International, as well as Paramount+ and HBO Max.”
If Nandy decides to intervene, the Office of Communications, known as Ofcom, would launch an assessment of the deal. Britain’s Competition and Markets Authority also would determine how the merger might reshape the competitive landscape.
Teams from the two companies have been huddling for months to plan for the melding of the two operations as soon as Paramount receives all of its regulatory approvals.
Australia, New Zealand, China, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Serbia, France and Italy have already given their approvals to the deal.
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is planning to contribute $10 billion to help the billionaire Ellison family pull off the merger, which would make the Saudi royal family a significant, although passive, equity owner. In addition, the royal families of Qatar and Abu Dhabi have agreed to each contribute $7 billion in equity financing.
The Federal Communications Commission must evaluate the foreign ownership stakes due to Paramount’s holding of CBS broadcast licenses. U.S. antitrust regulators already have concluded the combination would not violate federal anticompetition laws.
Approval had been expected because President Trump — who has friendly ties with Ellison and his father, tech billionaire Larry Ellison — favors the deal.
Trump has been eager for changes at CNN.
The U.S. government stopped short of asking Paramount to make concessions or divestitures. Many expect that Paramount may have to reconfigure its children’s television holdings abroad due to the proposed combination of two large players — Nickelodeon and Cartoon Network.
Nandy suggested that Britain also should scrutinize the impact of combining two major streaming services HBO Max, a Warner property, with Paramount+.
HBO programming, including “Game of Thrones,” “Boardwalk Empire,” and “Succession,” has long been popular in Britain.
A coalition of state attorneys general, led by California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta, also is expected to challenge the deal, in part, due to concerns about news media consolidation. Bonta’s office has said the matter remains under review.
Opposition to the deal has been building in the U.S. for months. A group of Hollywood activists — led by actors Jane Fonda and Mark Ruffalo — have spearheaded a “block the merger” campaign that now has support from more than 5,000 entertainment workers.
The group’s open letter calls on Bonta to take action to thwart the Ellison expansion effort. Paramount’s Chief Legal Officer Makan Delrahim has blasted the campaign, calling it “fear-mongering” and a partisan distortion of antitrust law.
Forrester’s Proulx noted differences in attitudes toward the deal among the various constituencies.
“For US consumers, this merger has become a proxy fight about political influence and control of media,” Proulx said. “In the UK, it’s being treated as a structural competition issue where regulators, not consumers, will decide how this deal plays out and how long it takes.”
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