Vermont’s biggest Election Day winner? Phil Scott. – VTDigger

Vermont’s biggest election night winner was, by all accounts, Gov. Phil Scott.

The Berlin Republican was widely expected to cruise to a fifth two-year term — and cruise, he did. Scott won 71.6% of the gubernatorial vote on Tuesday, besting his Democratic challenger, South Burlington education consultant Esther Charlestin, by a more than 50-point margin.

That’s a new record for Scott, who has increased his margin of victory every two years since he was first elected in 2016. In 2022, he beat Democratic challenger and housing activist Brenda Siegel by 47 points.

Scott also exceeded his previous record for the greatest number of votes received: 266,438 this year, according to uncertified election results from the Vermont Secretary of State’s Office, compared to his previous record of 248,412 in 2020. Once again, he won at least a plurality of the gubernatorial vote in every Vermont municipality.

But Scott’s electoral success Tuesday night was not limited to his own contest. He also ushered a new class of down-ballot Republican allies into the Vermont Statehouse.

Frequently at odds with a Democratic supermajority in the House and Senate this past biennium, Scott hit the campaign trail this summer and fall to make the case to Vermont voters: For his agenda to succeed, they had to elect Republican allies to the Legislature.

“The governor made it clear right out of the gate that this campaign wasn’t about him. It was about the issues that he cares about, that we know Vermonters care about most: affordability, housing and public safety,” Scott’s campaign manager, Jason Maulucci, said after the election. “What we tried to do right from the get-go was convince voters that if they shared those priorities — which we were confident they did — it wasn’t enough just to vote for the governor. They needed to deliver him a more moderate and balanced Legislature.”

It worked. On Tuesday, Republicans exceeded even their own highest expectations, flipping six of the Senate’s 30 seats from blue to red. They also flipped a net 17 House seats.

“We were overwhelmed by the response,” Maulucci said. Voters, he continued, “delivered to the governor his asks, and then some.”

Additionally, Vermonters made the rare move to oust a statewide incumbent. By a 1.6% margin, they elected Republican John Rodgers, a former Democratic state senator from Glover whom Scott had endorsed, over incumbent Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman, a Progressive/Democrat.

Rodgers largely worked from the same playbook as Scott, campaigning on affordability for average Vermonters. He was boosted — both in campaign appearances and with generous amounts of campaign cash — by Scott, who urged Vermonters to deliver him an ally in the Lieutenant Governor’s Office.

Again, it worked. When all was said and done, all but one down-ballot Republican Scott endorsed won on Tuesday.

“I think tonight’s success rests heavily on the shoulders of Gov. Scott and his willingness to spend political capital that he’s been building up for over a decade in a way that has been more generous than we’ve ever seen him before,” Paul Dame, the chair of the Vermont Republican Party, said Tuesday night.

From Scott’s election night party in Montpelier on Tuesday — even before the extent of Republicans’ success was fully realized — Dame said, “I don’t think we’ve had a night this good in 10 years.” 

“In 2014, there was a backlash against a Democratic near-supermajority that pushed too far on single payer health without talking about the cost,” he said. “And I think we saw that mirrored almost identically in the clean heat standard, and we added on top of that property taxes.”

On the campaign trail, Scott and his endorsees hammered hard on Democrats for legislation like the clean heat standard, which Republicans said could raise heating bills for Vermonters, should it be fully enacted in 2025. And for this year’s ballooning property tax bills, Scott rested the blame on Democratic legislators for failing to rein in education spending.

Democrats pushed back on the governor’s rhetoric for months, saying this year’s annual yield bill — which raised property taxes statewide by an average rate of 13.8% — was must-pass legislation. To rewrite Vermont’s education funding structure would take more than one year, they argued. And as the governor railed against Democrats for failing to bring down tax rates, Democratic leaders asked of the governor: Where was his plan?

On Tuesday night, though, it became clear that Scott’s messaging prevailed, not theirs. David Glidden, the chair of the Vermont Democratic Party, said in an interview Wednesday that Scott “was very tightly on campaign messaging the entire time” when it came to talking about affordability.

While door-knocking around the state, Democrats found Vermont voters were still eager to talk about policies pertaining to the environment and reproductive health care, Glidden said. But on the top issue of affordability, he said, Democratic candidates failed to articulate an effective counterpunch to Scott’s rhetoric.

“The governor was really only ever hammering away at property taxes, and we didn’t have a strong counterpoint to that, which I think was one weakness,” Glidden said. “In the media environment, that one singular response from Democrats was never quite articulated.”

Addressing his staffers and political allies from the Associated General Contractors of Vermont’s warehouse in Montpelier Tuesday night, Scott delivered a victory speech that celebrated Republicans’ down-ballot success even more than his own personal victory.

“Vermonters voted and sent a clear message,” he said. “They voted for balance. They voted for moderation.”

They also voted, up and down the ballot, for Scott.